
Originally Posted by
CoolBlue71
In 2008, Barack Obama won the presidency while receiving 43 percent national support from whites.
From his 28 states, plus Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District [Omaha] and District of Columbia, I found that more than 230 of his 365 electoral votes came from states in which Obama won the white vote. He flipped and won Iowa immediately in part because he carried whites. And that's a state with more whites per capita. He also won the pickup with Colorado thanks, in part, to having carried whites.
The numbers are skewed so much due to states in the Old Confederacy south. In 2008, Obama's support in Louisiana with whites were only 14 percent. (This state voted for Bill Clinton in both his 1992 and 1996 elections. It was in the column for Jimmy Carter in 1976 and, before that, in 1960 for John Kennedy.) President Obama was at just 10 percent in Alabama, which today is just about the last state which would carry for a Democrat (even if the nation experienced a 40-state landslide in a general presidential election).
In 2012, there were 19 states which didn't get polled. And that bothers me, due to failure to fully recognize and reconcile the numbers. Particularly essential with Georgia, a state in transition where Democrats aren't needing as high a bar of whites' support for carriage of the state. (That was being revealed after 2008, after John McCain held the state by a percentage margin of R+5.20. George W. Bush, in 2004, won Ga. by R+16.60. In 2012, Mitt Romney carried Ga. by about 9 points.)
"Traditional White America" is mainly with the states from the Old Confederacy. But get this: There are eleven [11] states of the Old Confederacy: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia. In the past 57 U.S. presidential elections, including 2012, there were ten [10] winning candidacies without carriage of a single state from the Old Confederacy: John Quincy Adams (1824), Abraham Lincoln (1860 and, in the year of secession, 1864), James Garfield (1880), Benjamin Harrison (1888), William McKinley (1896 and 1900), Teddy Roosevelt (1904), William Howard Taft (1908), and Calvin Coolidge (1924).
Contrast that the Rust Belt, which includes my home state of Michigan. There are nine states of the Rust Belt. They are: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Wisconsin. And the record shows that there has not been one [1] presidential election won where the prevailing candidate carried zero [0] of these Rust Belt states.
Way the map shakes out nowadays is a winner will have carried both of the two reigning bellwether states from both categories: Florida, from the Old Confederacy; Ohio, from the Rust Belt. So, it seems to me that whites who have a problem with a Changing America, which is code for racism but also hatred that Democrats have the electoral advantage, will likely continue to stew in their own juices.
On MSNBC's 2012 election-night coverage, McCain campaign adviser Steve Schmidt greatly summed it up: In Election 1988, George Bush nabbed 60 percent nationally of whites' support. He won 40 states and 426 electoral votes. In 2012, Mitt Romney nabbed same-level support of 60 percent whites. He won 24 states and 206 electoral votes.
That has those who aren't privileged feeling more optimistic. And, even though I am white, I feel it with them.