Manufacturing declining, no hope for the future

[JayHawk]

You know Kuli... the local talk radio Occasionally has interesting stuff... so the l;ib host the other day pointed our she paid 66 a month for premium healthcare and a pension while she belonged to the union... whereas the conservative guy said he had mid grade insurance and no pension for 100 a month... and then he said someone is obviously getting screwed...

The entire discussion was on self negotiation versus collective bargaining. The conservative guy claiming he was perfectly fine with negotiating for himself and why cant teachers do it for themselves as well. He never came back around to the concept that he negotiated for himself and got a shitty deal.

[DonQuixote]

Of course not.
And, corporations negotiate with Insurance Companies and suppliers, using their size for clout - why shouldn't labor?
Oh, that's right, because labor isn't a for profit corporation.

[Benvolio]

No one doubts that unions get a better deal for their members. But they don't know when to stop, and Federal law requires the company to negotiate with the union. Meanwhile in other countries the workers don't get such lucrative deals, so their employers can undersell American.

[palemale]

No one doubts that unions get a better deal for their members. But they don't know when to stop, and Federal law requires the company to negotiate with the union. Meanwhile in other countries the workers don't get such lucrative deals, so their employers can undersell American.

Isn't the problem that in "other countries" that don't recognize labor rights, a worker who organizes a union or goes on strike could end up dead or in jail? It isn't an unfair trade practice to suppress democracy or labor rights, but shouldn't it be?

[Kulindahr]

You know Kuli... the local talk radio Occasionally has interesting stuff... so the l;ib host the other day pointed our she paid 66 a month for premium healthcare and a pension while she belonged to the union... whereas the conservative guy said he had mid grade insurance and no pension for 100 a month... and then he said someone is obviously getting screwed...

The entire discussion was on self negotiation versus collective bargaining. The conservative guy claiming he was perfectly fine with negotiating for himself and why cant teachers do it for themselves as well. He never came back around to the concept that he negotiated for himself and got a shitty deal.

I think of it this way: if someone thinks he should negotiate for himself, then why doesn't he also insure himself, sell his house himself, serve as his own attorney, draw the blueprints for an addition to his house himself, build his car himself, install his plumbing himself, rewire his house himself, etc.?

Not everyone can do everything. That's why we have professionals who know how to do things, so we can focus on what we are good at. Any worker who thinks he can negotiate his own compensation deal is either a fool or is in the wrong job: a fool, because going up as one person against an entity with lawyers and executives experienced in getting their own way is eminently foolish; in the wrong job, because if he can handle that he should be doing it for a living.

[xbuzzerx]

You know Kuli... the local talk radio Occasionally has interesting stuff... so the l;ib host the other day pointed our she paid 66 a month for premium healthcare and a pension while she belonged to the union... whereas the conservative guy said he had mid grade insurance and no pension for 100 a month... and then he said someone is obviously getting screwed...

The entire discussion was on self negotiation versus collective bargaining. The conservative guy claiming he was perfectly fine with negotiating for himself and why cant teachers do it for themselves as well. He never came back around to the concept that he negotiated for himself and got a shitty deal.

When it comes to unions, conservatives and water cooler Joes NEVER see it as: hey, how come we all aren't getting decent benefits from our employers. They see it as: hey, how come UNION people are getting benefits and I'm not?! And then, lazily, somehow the conclusion is drawn that the union people are getting it out of everyone else's pocket somehow, or at the expense of their benefits, even when one has nothing to do with the other.

Out here in CA when there was the chain of grocery store strikes several years back, I couldn't tell you how many times I heard people say things like "why should THEY get that? I have to pay xx $$ for MY health insurance at work!" As if what Albertsons was paying its stockers and cashiers somehow in any way took from the pot that Northrop or (insert other employer) employees were getting.

[Kulindahr]

When it comes to unions, conservatives and water cooler Joes NEVER see it as: hey, how come we all aren't getting decent benefits from our employers. They see it as: hey, how come UNION people are getting benefits and I'm not?! And then, lazily, somehow the conclusion is drawn that the union people are getting it out of everyone else's pocket somehow, or at the expense of their benefits, even when one has nothing to do with the other.

Out here in CA when there was the chain of grocery store strikes several years back, I couldn't tell you how many times I heard people say things like "why should THEY get that? I have to pay xx $$ for MY health insurance at work!" As if what Albertsons was paying its stockers and cashiers somehow in any way took from the pot that Northrop or (insert other employer) employees were getting.

Wait -- you mean they aren't the center of the world, and everything revolves around them?

[Laufey]

Real economy and paper economy aren't the same thing.

A part of the 2008 crisis was that the paper economy wasn't in touch with the real economy.

[BostonPirate]

Real economy and paper economy aren't the same thing.

A part of the 2008 crisis was that the paper economy wasn't in touch with the real economy.

In what way, precisely? I agree, but I have yet to find anyone that agreed with me for the same reasons.

[BostonPirate]

If the paper economy has purchasing power, it is real.

Unless the paper is a title or deed to a property. Then by your definition, it is real and it is valueless based on certain variables.

[BostonPirate]

This discussion is deviating on tangents and focusing on a smaller part of a whole.

People often only associate power and wealth by what they can touch or see.

Such explains the movement to return to specie currency, which would be an utter disaster because not all that is wealth can be felt or seen.

I agree with that. Money and metals are no longer interchangeable for monetary values. Fiat currency is well.... valued at what the gov't decrees. That dovetails into the issues with Quantitative easing.. three rounds so far. It's also the problem we have with Chinese currency.

However, the value is set by a gov't, and the most important reason being is a means to raise revenue from the population in an even and equitable way.

I do agree that the use of precious metals as money is a thing of the past. There is not enough metal to go around for all the trade that occurs.

[Laufey]

I think it has something to do with stocks, printing money and the banks. Those combined manage to create a bubble far bigger than the actual economy. All of these fields somehow make money out of nothing.

I'm no expert though but this is how I see it. Wish I would have more detailed knowledge but I don't.

I'm always eager to learn more though so please share your thoughts on this.

[Kulindahr]

Industry Week, Policy Archive, and a number of others agree that manufacturing is the basis of any economy -- although the latter makes a good case that agriculture counts as well, because it is producing goods, and housing, because it is an "on location" form of manufacturing. It seems to me that all forms of construction have to be counted if housing is, so there's another chunk of the economy to add in. I don't know what portion of the US economy those together make, but it seems to me it has to be substantial. Nor do I know what the parameters are of what counts as manufacturing -- does crushing rock count? what about composting sewage? recycling cardboard and yard waste to make topsoil? Those are all instances of making something useful out of raw materials, but are they included?

Anyone know what the definition is, and what it includes?

[DonQuixote]

JockBoy,
I think we have a semantics issue - I may "broad brush" the term manufacturing more than you do.

To me, anything physically produced for use/consumption - more than simply cooked and served up, is part of manufacturing - including Construction - it, like BIG Ship building, is manufacturing of a quantity of one.
No, it's not Hardlines, Autos, electronics, softlines, but it is a tangible, physically produced product.

[maxpowr9]

Benvolio sure knows how to derail a thread. If he wants to start a union bashing thread, he can start a topic on his own.

Anyways, I have an online friend that works at Lockheed Martin as an aerospace engineer. Sure he reluctantly admits that he hopes the military complex in the US doesn't die (that would mean he would lose his job) but as long as it doesn't, he will always have a job. Those "ultra-tech" [cause "hi-tech" isn't sophisticated enough] jobs are quite secure too but go unfulfilled due to the high specialized requirements.

Agriculture gets its own section of employment/economy but it technically falls under the umbrella term of manufacturing as it is a good being shipped to market. However, the reason agriculture doesn't get lumped into manufacturing is that it misses out on one part: food is not a durable good.

[Kulindahr]

JockBoy,
I think we have a semantics issue - I may "broad brush" the term manufacturing more than you do.

To me, anything physically produced for use/consumption - more than simply cooked and served up, is part of manufacturing - including Construction - it, like BIG Ship building, is manufacturing of a quantity of one.
No, it's not Hardlines, Autos, electronics, softlines, but it is a tangible, physically produced product.

That's what I was driving at above. I'd call crushing rock to make gravel manufacturing.

[DonQuixote]

The Daily Show with Jon Stewart was interesting last night - touched on Unions -
Wal-Mart, Hostess.

Then, the guests of the night was this no name guy who thinks he's an expert on the economy and tax rates.
What does he know - he's lived in the same house in Omaha that he bought when he got married over 46 years ago.

http://www.thedailyshow.com/full-epi...--carol-loomis

[Benvolio]

Benvolio sure knows how to derail a thread. If he wants to start a union bashing thread, he can start a topic on his own.

Anyways, I have an online friend that works at Lockheed Martin as an aerospace engineer. Sure he reluctantly admits that he hopes the military complex in the US doesn't die (that would mean he would lose his job) but as long as it doesn't, he will always have a job. Those "ultra-tech" [cause "hi-tech" isn't sophisticated enough] jobs are quite secure too but go unfulfilled due to the high specialized requirements.

Agriculture gets its own section of employment/economy but it technically falls under the umbrella term of manufacturing as it is a good being shipped to market. However, the reason agriculture doesn't get lumped into manufacturing is that it misses out on one part: food is not a durable good.

You want to discuss the decline in manufacturing without discussing unions? What else would you talk about? Excessive government regulation? Or is that also derailing? I think you want to control the direction and content of the discussion by labeling positions you disagree with as "derailing".

[Benvolio]

When it comes to unions, conservatives and water cooler Joes NEVER see it as: hey, how come we all aren't getting decent benefits from our employers. They see it as: hey, how come UNION people are getting benefits and I'm not?! And then, lazily, somehow the conclusion is drawn that the union people are getting it out of everyone else's pocket somehow, or at the expense of their benefits, even when one has nothing to do with the other.

Out here in CA when there was the chain of grocery store strikes several years back, I couldn't tell you how many times I heard people say things like "why should THEY get that? I have to pay xx $$ for MY health insurance at work!" As if what Albertsons was paying its stockers and cashiers somehow in any way took from the pot that Northrop or (insert other employer) employees were getting.

What you are missing is that union workers get paid more than they would in a competitive market, and they get it at the expense of consumers. If the two manufacturers of "widgets" get together and agree upon the price they will charge, rather than competing on price, the consumers end up paying more for the things than they would in a market where the manufacturers competed. Unions have exactly the same purpose and effect.

[Kulindahr]

You want to discuss the decline in manufacturing without discussing unions? What else would you talk about? Excessive government regulation? Or is that also derailing? I think you want to control the direction and content of the discussion by labeling positions you disagree with as "derailing".

I'm not even sure China has unions.

Anyone?

[Kulindahr]

What you are missing is that union workers get paid more than they would in a competitive market, and they get it at the expense of consumers. If the two manufacturers of "widgets" get together and agree upon the price they will charge, rather than competing on price, the consumers end up paying more for the things than they would in a market where the manufacturers competed. Unions have exactly the same purpose and effect.

Your parallel fails: corporations are already an amalgamation of individuals agreeing to do things a certain way. For your comparison to be valid, there would be no corporations, only individuals manufacturing widgets by themselves.

Now, to go back to the original topic -- do you have any evidence that unions have played a part in the severe loss of manufacturing jobs in China?

[xbuzzerx]

What you are missing is that union workers get paid more than they would in a competitive market, and they get it at the expense of consumers. If the two manufacturers of "widgets" get together and agree upon the price they will charge, rather than competing on price, the consumers end up paying more for the things than they would in a market where the manufacturers competed. Unions have exactly the same purpose and effect.

Unions are virtually dead and have been rare for decades and the outsourcing continues so you'll have to dig up something more relevant to the last 30 years if you want to defend global economic outsourcing by U.S. companies.

[Benvolio]

Unions are virtually dead and have been rare for decades and the outsourcing continues so you'll have to dig up something more relevant to the last 30 years if you want to defend global economic outsourcing by U.S. companies.

Outscourcing is not the only effect. More important is the decline in US manufacturing from foreign competition. The decline in unions resuls from the decline and death of their victims, the unionized businesses.

[xbuzzerx]

Outscourcing is not the only effect. More important is the decline in US manufacturing from foreign competition. The decline in unions resuls from the decline and death of their victims, the unionized businesses.

Hey Benvolio-- do you know that some of that competition comes from countries that have nationalized healthcare, so that their workers don't have to unionize and collectively bargain to get their employer to help cover healthcare?

Maybe you should look a little deeper before you assign scapegoats.

[DonQuixote]

China is a Communist country, trying to maintain Communism while catering to Capitalists.
The only Union they have is the Army threat to squash them if they fight back against shitty work conditions, growing pollution, etc.

Yes, that's a gross overstatement, but it's probably conservative compared to the only barely relevant comments made by some.

Meanwhile, here's some information on how the US Industry is viewing our current situation.

http://www.mmh.com/article/mapi_econ...utm_medium=NLT
MAPI Economic Forecast: Moderate growth likely pending fiscal cliff compromise
Forecast predicts GDP growth of 1.8% in 2013, 2.8% in 2014, and 3.3% in 2015.
Read What's Related
MAPI comments on durable goods report
Commerce, NRF report annual gains in October retail sales
ELFA’s monthly leasing and finance index shows new business volume up, confidence down
ISM reports continued growth in manufacturing in October
Robots prove their mettle in the warehouse
Manufacturing Skill Standards Council modules to equal college credit

By Modern Materials Handling Staff
November 28, 2012

Major issues still need to be addressed, but presuming the United States gets its fiscal house in some semblance of order, the U.S. economy could be in a transition from sluggish growth to a longer period of moderate growth, according to a new report.

[Quote truncated by moderator] © Copyright 2012 Peerless Media LLC, a division of EH Publishing, Inc

[JayHawk]

That is what has been predicted since the collapse ... a recovery between 2014 and 2016. Republicans knew it and figured they could obstruct, blame it on Obama and not have to do much work to regain control and dump money from America into rich off shore bank accounts and the out of control military industrial complex.

We will be chugging along just fine. I hope Obama has no second term curse or it is another contrived situation republicans use to embarrass themselves more than convince america they are worth voting for in 2016. That will result in a Hillary 2016 and Hillary 2020....

[bankside]

I'm not even sure China has independent unions free to take positions on issues without obtaining government authorisation first.

Anyone?

I took the liberty of refining your question a bit.

[Kulindahr]

I took the liberty of refining your question a bit.

Good amendments.

[Benvolio]

That is what has been predicted since the collapse ... a recovery between 2014 and 2016. Republicans knew it and figured they could obstruct, blame it on Obama and not have to do much work to regain control and dump money from America into rich off shore bank accounts and the out of control military industrial complex.

We will be chugging along just fine. I hope Obama has no second term curse or it is another contrived situation republicans use to embarrass themselves more than convince america they are worth voting for in 2016. That will result in a Hillary 2016 and Hillary 2020....

Notice the prediction is predicated upon the US getting its fiscal house in order. THAT is what the Republicans have been working for. Obama's plan to soak the rich and continue to spend a trillion a year deficit ad infinitum does not qualify as getting our fiscal house in order.

[Kulindahr]

Notice the prediction is predicated upon the US getting its fiscal house in order. THAT is what the Republicans have been working for. Obama's plan to soak the rich and continue to spend a trillion a year deficit ad infinitum does not qualify as getting our fiscal house in order.

This is so divorced from reality it's beyond lu8dicrous.

All it takes is reading the independent examinations of policies to show that what the Republicans have really been working for is total economic disaster -- that's what the Ryan Plan would have given us -- a job drop of over four million in just the first two years of its implementation. And they've been fighting furiously to keep the deficit high by refusing to let the Bush cuts expire as they were supposed to.

The continued lie that Obama plans to "soak the rich" doesn't fly, never did. Obama's idea of taxes for the rich is LESS THAT RONALD REAGAN'S. Do you get that? Either Ronald Reagan was a rich-hating socialist, or the whole GOP is willingly and knowingly lying about tax rates.

Of course the problem is that there aren't any conservatives in the GOP any more. Conservatives know that if you have a debt to pay, you do everything possible to pay it. Eisenhower knew that, which is why he had very patriotic taxes rates with 90% on the upper bracket. Even Gerald Ford knew that when he got the top rate jacked up over 37% -- Nixon, starting a good solid Republican tradition of borrow-and-kill, had been funding the Vietnam War with IOUs; Ford, much more a conservative, believed that you should pay for things if you're going to do them.

The icing on the cake is that Republicans killed bills that would have reduced regulations on small businesses and generated five million jobs in just two years. So in reality, Boehner and company have been fighting for regulations and against jobs.

Maybe when the GOP becomes an honest party again instead of a batch of liars, they'll deserve to sit at the table.

[DonQuixote]

Solid reasoning, JayHawk.

[pat grimshaw]

I'm not even sure China has unions.

Anyone?

Of course they don't. The individual has no value in that state. One human's life has no value; Murder goes unchecked.

Chairman Mao said 'My people are ants!'.

[xbuzzerx]

Of course they don't. The individual has no value in that state. One human's life has no value; Murder goes unchecked.

Chairman Mao said 'My people are ants!'.

What an uninformed statement steeped in a half century old viewpoint.

[DonQuixote]

Their rush to become a first world economy reveals a "Robber Baronesque" attitude towards the environment - the pollution levels there are atrocious and downright dangerous.

They've learned the EARLY lessons of Capitalism from us well. Now let's see how long before they learn that the environmental destruction is a major cost of doing business and "green" thinking counts.

[pat grimshaw]

... the pollution levels there are atrocious and downright dangerous...

East China is filthy.

..They've learned the EARLY lessons of Capitalism from us well. Now let's see how long before they learn that the environmental destruction is a major cost of doing business and "green" thinking counts.

I don't believe that for a minute.

They worship the dollar just like everyone else. They will put melamine in their milk and pesticides in their vegetable if it brings an extra dollar.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Chinese_milk_scandal
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Food_sa...ublic_of_China
http://pop.org/content/poisoning-of-...and-drugs-1923
http://www.theepochtimes.com/n2/chin...ng-298904.html
http://textbookofbacteriology.net/th.../B.cereus.html
http://au.news.yahoo.com/today-tonig...c-food-imports

[DonQuixote]

So, you don't believe they'll come to understand the economic costs of destroying their environment, or you don't accept the premise at all?

[pat grimshaw]

....you don't believe they'll come to understand the economic costs of destroying their environment...

Maybe, perhaps, sometime way way into the future, by which time my country's manufacturing industries —and yours— will be dead.

[DonQuixote]

Ours is starting to make a resurgence, actually.
The cost of living/labor abroad has been increasing, add in the shipping, and the push back.

Still a long way to go to parity, but baby steps.

[JayHawk]

There are other pressures present as well. Tesla Motors moved its manufacturing of electric motors back to California after their cost assessment found the cost of shipping the units from overseas was more than paying US labor wages.

[Kulindahr]

Their rush to become a first world economy reveals a "Robber Baronesque" attitude towards the environment - the pollution levels there are atrocious and downright dangerous.

They've learned the EARLY lessons of Capitalism from us well. Now let's see how long before they learn that the environmental destruction is a major cost of doing business and "green" thinking counts.

My sister the engineer, sister-on-law the engineer, and brother the computer/systems/energy consultant and mathematician have all been over there, and came back saying they were in awe of the efforts being made to clean things up -- as in, if the US made the same exertion, we'd pollute less per capita than anywhere in the world. But their industry and transportation have expanded so fast, the efforts to make it all clean can't keep up.

In fact my sister related that industry people over there see the drastic slowing in manufacturing growth as a blessing in a backhanded way -- they hope the efforts to get the air clean, etc., can catch up now.

[DonQuixote]

If that's true, that will be great.
Too many horror stories about lack of caring - either about their own people (Apple subcontractor) or their customers (lead in paint on toys, fake pharma, etc.)

[pat grimshaw]

http://abcnews.go.com/International/...ry?id=18352787

[chrisrobin]

.
Apple stock went down a smidge this week. Reason? Some of their manufacturing jobs are being relocated to the USA.

[DonQuixote]

We like manufacturing returning here.

Economy shrank by 1/10 of 1% in the 4th quarter, primarily due to a 15% reduction in US Gov't Military Spending.
Independent sectors still showed growth.

[Kulindahr]

We like manufacturing returning here.

Economy shrank by 1/10 of 1% in the 4th quarter, primarily due to a 15% reduction in US Gov't Military Spending.
Independent sectors still showed growth.

Government should never be so large that such a minor cut in its total spending could have such an impact on the nation's economy as this.

[bankside]

Government should never be so large that such a minor cut in its total spending could have such an impact on the nation's economy as this.

That's like saying "the energy sector should never be so large that such a minor cut…."

This idea of large or small government is just so arbitrary the product of such illusory math. What if, in the United Private Cantons of Libertopia, the army was turned over to the "Voluntary Corporation of Mutual Defence" instead of being part of big, bad, Government Spending™?

At that point VCMD cuts its spending by 15% why would the economy of UPCL do anything other than tank by 1/10th of 1%?

[maxpowr9]

.
Apple stock went down a smidge this week. Reason? Some of their manufacturing jobs are being relocated to the USA.

Cute Apple fanatic.

The stock value has wiped out any gains it has made the previous year and continues to tank. Nice job omitting that.

[maxpowr9]

It also throws the market on gadgets wide open.

It's why Japan's electronic industry is in shambles. South Korea picked up the slack and made electronics sexy again.

[pat grimshaw]

It's why Japan's electronic industry is in shambles...

How come Japan's electronic industry is in a shambles?

[xbuzzerx]

Government should never be so large that such a minor cut in its total spending could have such an impact on the nation's economy as this.

We spend more on military than the next 10+ countries combined or whatever the stat is these days.

I don't necessarily know that saying 15% of that budget could be 1/10th of 1% of the economy is excessive or out of proportion.

Of course, I'm not saying spending that much on defense is necessarily wise or great, but..