First Thoughts: Unemployment rate dips below 8 percent

[White Eagle]

Good news for Obama. Will it help his debate loss? I hope so.

http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2...8-percent?lite

First Thoughts: Unemployment rate dips below 8 percent
By Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Brooke Brower

Unemployment rate dips below 8%... Will it have an impact?... Is Romney’s plan really a $5 trillion tax cut?... Yesterday was a tale of two different campaigns -- one with momentum, the other with something to prove… Romney cleans up his “47%” comment, calling it “completely wrong”… Two points on the return of “Moderate Mitt”… Democrats’public angst (comparing Obama’s debate performance to Donald Verrilli’s SCOTUS oral arguments)… Obama stumps in Virginia and Ohio, while Romney hits Virginia and Florida.

[JayHawk]

It is good news for Obama but the jobs data will come out the Friday prior to the election as well. I am sure the Romney campaign will shrug this off just as the Obama campaign shrugged off the above 8% data.

[White Eagle]

The Romney clan are saying the Obama team has doctored the unemployment figures. Go figure!

[Orlandude]

The Romney clan are saying the Obama team has doctored the unemployment figures. Go figure!

"I was completely wrong about the 47%".....Romney
"I never voted against the Ledbetter Act".....Romney

We can now assume that everything Romney says is doctored.

[Jack Springer]

[Lostlover]

LMAO at the GOP. Things just can't go right. It's below that vaunted 8% unemployment the GOP has clung onto. Deal with it. You made a big issue out of the percentage, now STFU. He got it below 8%.

[Kulindahr]

7.8% sounds much better, and the upward revision of the previous months is encouraging. I have my doubts it's enough to change minds of people who have been eating up lies for months now.

[JayHawk]

Oh poor right wing lunatics. To think I held so much value in what are still very closely held beliefs for me but that they are so desperate to win they would sabotage anything including America. Now Americans having jobs is problematic for the cowards on the right.

[Benvolio]

Has any President been reelected with unemployment that high? It is nothing to crow about, but crow they will.

[Spiff]

Has any President been reelected with unemployment that high? It is nothing to crow about, but crow they will.

FDR. Relected twice with unemployment numbers double what they are now.

[JayHawk]

Really so you mean a Democratic President had to save the country from republican policies in the past? Say it aint so Spiff.

[chance1]

I guess it's good news

Not sure how 114k added jobs reduces the UE rate by .3%

And they've restated prior month figures

I admit to not being all that on these numbers

Not sure how many people have left the hunt for a job

After a few months of not so good news this appears to be a positive

[rareboy]

So how is this Obama's fault?

Oh no.

Wait a minute.

Will the Republican Congress be claiming credit for this?

[JayHawk]

Housing sales are up
Car sales are up
Consumer confidence is up

UP is up... regardless of where you want to make the starter marker.

[ReadyWithReadyWit]

This is very good news, but clearly a lot of work remains. In terms of the election, it doesn't erase the debate, but it certainly stops the bleeding. And, there is clearly a great deal of symbolism in dropping below 8%. However, it is important to not overplay the numbers too.

The right is simply going to edit its rhetoric slightly to: "It took Obama 4 years to get the employment rate back to where it was when he was elected" which is, of course, disingenuous and misleading, but what do you expect... and, of course, there will be the anti-intellectualesque conspiracy theories...

On the other hand, the left obviously can't celebrate. They have to take the tack that "a lot of improvement has been made, we are on the right path, and we cannot afford to go backwards now."

It (coupled with those pesky fact-checkers) does stop Romney's momentum in its tracks though.

[rareboy]

The Republicans are already claiming that Obama has fiddled the figures.

Yup.

[Jack Springer]

The biggest one month increase in employment in s 29 years, 873,000 more people were employed in September 2012-- and yet the rate dropped only to 7.8% -- and only 114,000 new jobs added.

Does that math add up for anyone?

If your mind doesn't question something like that -- you're open to buying almost anything with questioning -- I doubt most people are that accepting.

Someone please explain this.

PS: I'm still assuming 2 + 2 = 4.

[Jack Springer]

^^^

Please explain then -- with numbers.

[bike10]

With 5 minutes of the release of the 7.8 figures the far right media claims the figures were doctored.

[Jack Springer]

I've already explained it. I don't see the difficulty in grasping the numbers here. The report is quite clear.

And as far as those 873,000... here is an explanation... many of those job positions were already existing. There are more jobs out there one can imagination. People are coming back to the work force. If the republicans would have not obstructed pro-job bills, unemployment would be below 7% right now. 2 million extra jobs would have been created. But republicans will sabotage whatever they can to gain political points.

If the jobs were already "out there" as you say -- why weren't they counted earlier.

I'm trying to understand this -- are there 114,000 more jobs or 873,000 more jobs?

[Rolyo85]

Your trying to understand things is suspiciously like your slamming the president for no reason... weird...

[Jack Springer]

^^

If I understand Giancarlo -- the 873,000 jobs were jobs without people that got people in Sept and the 114,000 were jobs that were added ---- assuming those jobs included people.

Does that make sense?

[Benvolio]

^^

If I understand Giancarlo -- the 873,000 jobs were jobs without people that got people in Sept and the 114,000 were jobs that were added ---- assuming those jobs included people.

Does that make sense?

In any even we brought in as many immigrants as new jobs, and last month BO gave green cards to 3 million illegals. No progress for Americans.

[Spiff]

With 5 minutes of the release of the 7.8 figures the far right media claims the figures were doctored.

If democrats or Obama had the power to fudge the jobs numbers, then don't all the goons making this accusation think Obama would have had this done earlier with all the other bad news reports he got this year? Were all those bad ones fudged? Oh of course not, just this single positive one. . .? They suddenly acquired the power to fudge these reports overnight?

[chance1]

Jack Welch thinks it's ........... queer

the #s that is

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics...eo-over-obama/

[Benvolio]

If democrats or Obama had the power to fudge the jobs numbers, then don't all the goons making this accusation think Obama would have had this done earlier with all the other bad news reports he got this year? Were all those bad ones fudged? Oh of course not, just this single positive one. . .? They suddenly acquired the power to fudge these reports overnight?

No, they would wait until the October report, the last month before the election, and report the biggest raise in thirty years. The OCTOBER SURPRISE GAMBIT. Phoney as a three dollar bill.

[FuryOfFirestorm]

[Spiff]

No, they would wait until the October report, the last month before the election, and report the biggest raise in thirty years. The OCTOBER SURPRISE GAMBIT. Phoney as a three dollar bill.

Show me the facts. How exactly would they do that? For once, give us something substantial that shows proof of your claims. Show us how exactly that jobs reports are suddenly controlled by the presidency for this current administration only.

[Jack Springer]

873,000 jobs weren't added in September. Those job positions were available. I wonder why one refuses to listen when I'm trying to explain. Also consider people leaving the workforce for retirement.

WTF do you mean available?

[Benvolio]

The figures are created by underlings of the President, exercising executive functions vested in the President. He can, if he wishes, brush them aside and create the figures himself. Here is his appointee--who will be out of work in Jan--lying about some of the figures.http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Governm...ers-Questioned

[Spiff]

The figures are created by underlings of the President, exercising executive functions vested in the President. He can, if he wishes, brush them aside and create the figures himself. Here is his appointee--who will be out of work in Jan--lying about some of the figures.http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Governm...ers-Questioned

Lol, you can't get anymore far right than Breitbart. Your "proof" is as phoney as a three dollar bill, as you would say.

[MisterMajestic]

Good news for Obama. Will it help his debate loss? I hope so.

It doesnt matter if the new rate changes the 1 debate loss or not. This new rate gives all of us proof & continued hope that the Economy is improving slowly and Businesses are begining to hire again....

Obama Supporters arent going to walk away from him because of 1 poor debate performance or even 3 POOR debate performances...We know what the Obama Administration has accomplished over the last 4yrs..I already early-voted for him a few days ago and 12 of my co-workers voted for him this morning...We DO NOT trust ANYTHING that comes out of Mitt Romney's Rich-Lips...I like the guy and the way his Beautiful family supports him 100% but he's a terrible campaigner and he will LIE and say anything to live in the White house. That is not just my opinion its a universal opinion......

I watched The Romney's to see what they were about before I passed any judgement against them...You have to at least listen and watch.....I learned that they feel they are entitled to Live in the White house, they say it's "their turn"...I'm sorry but it doesnt work like that....They don't even TRUST putting their money in American banks and at the same time they wanna move into the White house that is paid by the American Tax payer dollars....No sir, I don't think so...

So Mitt can lock President Obama in the closet for the next 2 debates and do the debate SOLO and Obama supporters will still vote for President Obama the Man that doesnt flip-flop on his core beliefs...

I could care-less about The Republican Party saying the new rate is a farce. They also claimed The Administration NEVER killed Osama and demanded pictures of the Devil's body to be convinced.......

[FuryOfFirestorm]

Here's more charts from different sources, to back up the 7.8% figure:

[T-Rexx]

The progress is excruciatingly slow, but it is progress. We are slowly clawing our way back from the Bush Depression.

Things would go much faster, however, if Republicans would allow the Bush tax cuts to expire, would allow more stimulus spending, and would pass the jobs bill.

[frankfrank]

They also claimed The Administration NEVER killed Osama and demanded pictures of the Devil's body to be convinced.......

Or, as somebody else I know, some people said that he has been dead for years.

I doubt that - they would have waited until ABOUT NOW to "kill" him, instead of more than a year ago.

[Constantine]

Has any President been reelected with unemployment that high? It is nothing to crow about, but crow they will.

Ronald Reagan was re-elected with an unemployment rate of 7.4%.

[Constantine]

The figures are created by underlings of the President, exercising executive functions vested in the President. He can, if he wishes, brush them aside and create the figures himself. Here is his appointee--who will be out of work in Jan--lying about some of the figures.http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Governm...ers-Questioned

This is nonsense. These figures come from one of the most transparent bureaucracies in Washington, D.C., the BLS. NO PRESIDENT (or his merry men) can get to them. The numbers are sent to the White House a day before they're publicized. If the numbers were altered in any way, the whistle would have been blown on the White House.
As for Jack Welch, Chris Matthews made him look like a loony.

[MisterMajestic]

Or, as somebody else I know, some people said that he has been dead for years.

I doubt that - they would have waited until ABOUT NOW to "kill" him, instead of more than a year ago.

...LOL...Exactly..I remember listening to the BIGGEST Blabber-mouth in Ohio, The Bill Cunninham radio-show the night Obama addressed the nation about Osama's death...Republican callers called in saying "They didnt kill Osama, Dubya killed him in 2006 or 2007 and Obama is taking credit for it".....LOL...Then the next day that Drunkard Glenn Beck pretty much went on a crusade saying No BODY to display meant the Obama Administration was selling America a LIE...

All of them were screaming Bloody-murder after the new rate relase on Friday...

This is nonsense. These figures come from one of the most transparent bureaucracies in Washington, D.C., the BLS. NO PRESIDENT (or his merry men) can get to them. The numbers are sent to the White House a day before they're publicized. If the numbers were altered in any way, the whistle would have been blown on the White House.
As for Jack Welch, Chris Matthews made him look like a loony.

Jack Welch is a Legendary Brilliant business man and a Romney supporter to the core. He's claiming The Obama Administration cooked the books just like The Donald claims he knows for a FACT Obama is a Kenyan pretending to be an American...

[Benvolio]

The Presidents underlings at BLS are BIG contributors to Obama. Tell me they aren't worried about their jobs.http://freebeacon.com/meet-the-obama-donors-at-the-bls/

[rareboy]

Harley Frazis of Bethesda, MD, has contributed at least $2,000 to Obama

Stephen Phillips of Washington, D.C., has contributed at least $270 to Obama during the 2012 cycle.

Oh yeah.

HUGE donors.

And Harley, who has been publishing articles for the BLS since 1993, would really be concerned about his job, wouldn't he?

FRAZIS, HARLEY
Frazis, Harley. “How to Think About Time-Use Data: What Inferences Can We Make About Long- and Short-Run Time Use from Time Diaries?” (with Jay Stewart). Annals of Economics and Statistics Number 105/106 (January-June 2012), 231-246.
___. "How Does Household Production Affect Measured Income Inequality?" (with Jay Stewart). Journal of Population Economics.24:1 (January 2011), 3-22.
___. "Why Do BLS Hours Series Tell Different Stories About Trends in Hours Worked?" (with Jay Stewart). In Labor in the New Economy, Katharine G. Abraham, James R. Spletzer, and Michael Harper, eds. NBER Studies in Income and Wealth, University of Chicago Press. (2010) pp. 343-372.
___. "Comparing Hours Worked Per Job in the Current Population Survey and the American Time Use Survey" (with Jay Stewart), Social Indicators Research 93:1 (August 2009), 191-195.
___. "On-the-Job Training" (with Mark Loewenstein). Foundations and Trends in Microeconomics 2(5) 2007, pp. 363-440.
___. "Where Does the Time Go? Concepts and Measurement in the American Time Use Survey" (with Jay Stewart). Hard to Measure Goods and Services: Essays in Memory of Zvi Griliches, Ernst Berndt and Charles Hulten, eds., NBER Studies in Income and Wealth, University of Chicago Press, (Spring 2007), pp. 73-97.
___. "Data Watch-The American Time Use Survey" (with Daniel S. Hamermesh and Jay Stewart), Journal of Economic Perspectives 19(1), Winter 2005, pp. 221-32.
___. "Reexamining the Returns to Training: Functional Form, Magnitude, and Interpretation" (with Mark Loewenstein). Journal of Human Resources 40:2 (Spring 2005) pp. 453-476.
___. "Estimating Linear Regressions with Mismeasured, Possibly Endogenous, Binary Explanatory Variables" (with Mark Loewenstein). Journal of Econometrics 117(2), November 2003, pp. 151-178.
___. "Human Capital, Signaling, and the Pattern of Returns to Education." Oxford Economic Papers, 54(2), April 2002, pp. 298-320.
___. "Correlates Of Training: An Analysis Using Both Employer And Employee Characteristics" (with Maury Gittleman and Mary Joyce). Industrial and Labor Relations Review, 53(3) April 2000, pp. 443-62.
___. "Tracking the Returns to Education in the Nineties: Bridging the Gap Between the New and Old CPS Education Items" (with Jay Stewart). Journal of Human Resources 34(3) Summer 1999, pp. 629-41.
___. "Keying Errors Caused by Unusual Keypunch Codes: Evidence from a Current Population Survey Test" (with Jay Stewart). American Statistical Association Proceedings of the Section on Survey Research Methods, 1998, pp. 131-34.
___. "Formal and Informal Training: Evidence from a Matched Employee-Employer Survey" (with Maury Gittleman, Michael Horrigan, and Mary Joyce). Advances in the Study of Entrepreneurship, Innovation, and Economic Growth v. 9, edited by Gary Libecap, (Greenwich, Ct.: JAI Press, 1997), pp. 47-82.
___. "Selection Bias and the Degree Effect." Journal of Human Resources 28(3), Summer 1993, pp. 538-554.
BLS Publications and Working Papers by Harley Frazis

http://www.bls.gov/ers/publications.htm


*Buzzer Sound*

Try again.

[Benvolio]

They clearly are not impartial. The contributions prove they want him to win and are helping him.

[rareboy]

Sorry, Epic Fail.



Lamest argument ever. As though these two people only are responsible for issuing the stats. (Hint: They're not) or that they even have a direct connection to analysis of employment figures. (Hint: They don't)...or that there are no Romney supporters in the entire group of economists at the BLS (Hint: This one is up in the air)

The point and the proof are pitiful.

Shooorly you can do better than this.

[White Eagle]

The Presidents underlings at BLS are BIG contributors to Obama. Tell me they aren't worried about their jobs.http://freebeacon.com/meet-the-obama-donors-at-the-bls/

You go from Brietbart to Free Beacon.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Washington_Free_Beacon

The Washington Free Beacon is an American web site that publishes associated content from a U.S. conservative perspective.

http://www.thenation.com/blog/169082...s-taiwan-lobby

Conservative 'Free Beacon' Fronts for Taiwan Lobby
Lee Fang on July 26, 2012 - 3:55 PM ET

The Washington Free Beacon, a new website on the right, has a particular fascination with promoting weapon sales to Taiwan. In addition to daily hits on the Obama administration and Democrats, the Free Beacon has multiple posts calling for more F-16 fighter jet sales to the island nation, and has branded skeptics of militarization as “pro-China” activists.

Do I need to get more links?
You are full of it!

[chance1]

We've gotten to the point in politics where nothing is regarded as the defacto truth anymore

Mitt Romney kicked Obama's rear for 90 minutes earlier this week in an unedited, unbiased, REAL interaction between the 2 men

Cool that you don't care ....... but not cool that you didn't recognize it and validate it

Unemployment at 7.8% = .3% drop - YEAH ........ good news right?

sorta

did you know that we need 150k jobs just to keep up with population growth?

did you know that average rate of job growth in 2012 < that in 2011 ? how is that a slow steady growth as some have said here?

job growth is not good YET ........... somehow the UE rate goes down ? sounds like voodoo economics

did you know that the jobs created survey (114k) is taken of companies while the unemployment rate (7.8%) is from a household survey?

the two #s have no real connection .......... I'm not saying they're not important - both are .......

then there's unemployment rates that are much higher - ones that include people who can only fine PT work (14.7%) and then there's the one that includes the underemployed and those who have stopped looking (22.5%).

#s are so fungible - so analyzable - so partisanable - it's like they don't matter

behind the 7.8% drop is that more PT jobs were added - better than a kick in the head but great news?

i was recently out of work - i'm sure others here on this board are now - I happen to know a few - perhaps you have a family member, partner .......... we all know people who are out some for a long time

this is the "eye test" and we all know it

things are not good

I paid $4.44 for a gallon of 91 octane gas today

so is it "good news" the UE rate dropped? yeah

using it as "things are working - obama's doing a good job" - NO

so republicans should NOT use this news as a "you're a liar" moment - NO WAY

but dems should not dive on the sword here

things are not good

[T-Rexx]

^ So, your idea is that unemployment is correcting too slowly, so we should return to the economic policies that caused it in the first place. You would prefer policies of proven failure to policies that are known to succeed because the success is too slow for you.

You believe that FDR should have gone back to Hoover's plan in 1936, and the depression would have ended sooner.

Driving off the cliff was actually a great idea. We just haven't done it often enough to appreciate its virtues.

[Tengilethos]

The numbers don't add up completely, because they come from two different sources, the household survey and the establishment survey, who are also not really reliable. Which you can see by the fact that the numbers for the last two months have been corrected upwards. Single surveys mean as much as single polls, so this could be a good sign or an outlier. But everybody has access to the two surveys, it is absurd to think they would be faked. These are civil servants whose job is in jeopardy should they lie. The same with the polls, they make their money with accurate polling, they would be insane to skew the polls in any direction.

Overall I am constantly amazed how little trust Americans have in their government; not only it's ability to get something done, but also the basic informations it provides are doubted. How can you live this way? This also extends to public figures of authority, like pollsters or scientists.

[Tengilethos]

We've gotten to the point in politics where nothing is regarded as the defacto truth anymore

Mitt Romney kicked Obama's rear for 90 minutes earlier this week in an unedited, unbiased, REAL interaction between the 2 men

Cool that you don't care ....... but not cool that you didn't recognize it and validate it

You should have read some of the really left-wing websites, it was THE SKY IS FALLING!!!-Mode for at least a day after the debate.

Unemployment at 7.8% = .3% drop - YEAH ........ good news right?

sorta

did you know that we need 150k jobs just to keep up with population growth?

did you know that average rate of job growth in 2012 < that in 2011 ? how is that a slow steady growth as some have said here?

job growth is not good YET ........... somehow the UE rate goes down ? sounds like voodoo economics

did you know that the jobs created survey (114k) is taken of companies while the unemployment rate (7.8%) is from a household survey?

the two #s have no real connection .......... I'm not saying they're not important - both are .......

See my last post. These numbers don't really add up, but this is because of the survey method, not because some partisan hacks cooked the numbers. And this is how the BLS has measured unemployment for quite some time, so they did not change their (maybe flawed) methodology to help the President. And their numbers where reliable enough for Republicans to attack Obama when they showed unemployment over 8%.

then there's unemployment rates that are much higher - ones that include people who can only fine PT work (14.7%) and then there's the one that includes the underemployed and those who have stopped looking (22.5%).

#s are so fungible - so analyzable - so partisanable - it's like they don't matter

behind the 7.8% drop is that more PT jobs were added - better than a kick in the head but great news?

i was recently out of work - i'm sure others here on this board are now - I happen to know a few - perhaps you have a family member, partner .......... we all know people who are out some for a long time

this is the "eye test" and we all know it

things are not good

I always wonder how realistic a quick return to low unemployment is. The unemployment rate was about 4.5-5% for the last years of the Bush presidency before the crash. But the economy was driven by a debt-fueled housing bubble, so a good number of these jobs must be based on unsustainable parts of the economy, right? So why should the unemployment rate return to these levels any time soon without another bubble?

And secondly, connected to the housing bubble, if I understand correctly then taxes on these houses make up a significant portion of local budgets. Which is one of the reasons public sector employment has fallen dramatically. Look here (older chart):



Blue are private sector jobs, red public sector. The big spike was the 2010 census.
Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/the-c...loyment-2012-6

Population growth means that having the same number of private sector jobs as before the recession is still a net loss of jobs per person, but the situation is clearly improving. But the public sector has lost so many jobs because of government cutbacks, how can anybody hope that unemployment falls anytime soon as long as the United States faces huge debts? And the Republican remedy of austerity might be the right thing in the long run, but cuts to social spending will inevitably lead to even more lost jobs.

Perhaps the natural unemployment rate was artificially low during the boom period because of various debt bubbles, and the new natural unemployment rate will be between 6 and 7%? I rarely see this addressed, each side always claims that their policies will mean a return to pre-crisis prosperity, but that always strikes me as unlikely.

I paid $4.44 for a gallon of 91 octane gas today

Note that the United States has not been the most important driver of oil and gas prices for quite some time, no matter how much drilling you do, it will inevitably be guzzled up in large quantities by other economies like China or India, higher price levels are a reality we all have to accept.

so is it "good news" the UE rate dropped? yeah

using it as "things are working - obama's doing a good job" - NO

so republicans should NOT use this news as a "you're a liar" moment - NO WAY

but dems should not dive on the sword here

things are not good

That is right. The situation might be improving or not, but things could be better. It is no clear vindication of Obama's presidency.

[Constantine]

The numbers don't add up completely, because they come from two different sources, the household survey and the establishment survey, who are also not really reliable. Which you can see by the fact that the numbers for the last two months have been corrected upwards. Single surveys mean as much as single polls, so this could be a good sign or an outlier. But everybody has access to the two surveys, it is absurd to think they would be faked. These are civil servants whose job is in jeopardy should they lie. The same with the polls, they make their money with accurate polling, they would be insane to skew the polls in any direction.

Overall I am constantly amazed how little trust Americans have in their government; not only it's ability to get something done, but also the basic informations it provides are doubted. How can you live this way? This also extends to public figures of authority, like pollsters or scientists.

Republicans are incapable of believing in anything that doesn't start with "In the beginning. . . ."
It's amazing that they fear some twisted notion of what socialism is in America, but they can't wait to get to that big socialist community in the sky.

[Just_Believe18]

The figures are created by underlings of the President, exercising executive functions vested in the President. He can, if he wishes, brush them aside and create the figures himself. Here is his appointee--who will be out of work in Jan--lying about some of the figures.http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Governm...ers-Questioned

FALSE.

http://news.yahoo.com/officials-reje...--finance.html

The staffers who compute the U.S. unemployment rate work in an agency of the Labor Department. Officials who have overseen the work say it's prepared under tight security with no White House input or supervision.
"To think that these numbers could be manipulated. ... It's impossible to do it and get away with it," said Keith Hall, a former commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the agency that calculates the unemployment rate.

[Text: Removed by Moderator]

[spooger]

Good news for Obama. Will it help his debate loss? I hope so.

it is good news for all of america, but i don't think it will help obama greatly ...

there are so many other objections to his politics and policies that it won't be the icing on the election ... now if some way the figures were to drop significantly lower before election time, maybe .... ??? but not likely