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  1. #1
    Virginia Is for Lovers Alnitak's Avatar
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    Future Opinion on Same Sex Marriage

    We have been privileged to experience breathtaking progress in public opinion on same sex marriage in recent years. The latest polls hover around 55%, up nine points since 2011. However, the diminishing number of opponents also means that there will no longer be room for acceleration, quite the opposite. Barring some jarring events (oops that rhymes), we should expect to see growth to taper off just as slowly as it started. Just how much?

    In the year 2026, support for marriage equality will reach 75%. Find out why below

    Having passed the 50% inflection point a few years ago, the data on the slowdown is just starting to come in. A rich source of polling data on this issue may be found here http://pollingreport.com/civil.htm. See table below.

    Of course, with data comes the ability to model graphs and forecast the future. Because the parameters of percentage are certain (0-100), it is fairly easy to construct a reliable logistic function without viewing very far into the future. The higher quality the data the better the graph will be, especially the end points on regression lines. The earliest I could possibly find a poll was in September 1985 through a secondary source.

    Without going into higher math (Taylor series, sums, calculus, etc.), a very basic discussion on how logistic functions are extrapolated from data can be found at this link: http://www.cs.xu.edu/math/math120/01f/logistic.pdf

    We will pick two points the get our equation for the graph, the first, and the half way point. I won't bore you guys with the details on how I did it. Follow the link. Through some mathematical trickery we arrive at the equation and graph with the points plotted alongside it.



    We can use this equation to predict the future.



    Suppose we we want to know when will support reach 75%. Look at the graph, or for an exact figure just solve the equation for 75.

    75 = 100/1+8.1e^-0.0774(x-1985)
    100/75 = 1+8.1e^-0.0774(x-1985)
    0.3333 = 8.1e^-0.0774(x-1985)
    0.04115 = e^-0.0774(x-1985)
    ln0.04115 = lne^-0.0774(x-1985)
    -3.19 = -0.0774(x-1985)
    41.22 = x - 1985
    2026 = x

    So in the year 2026, support for marriage equality will reach 75%

    Data:

    Year Support (average)
    1985 11
    1988 12
    1994 21
    1996 26.8
    1998 29.0
    1999 34.5
    2000 34.0
    2001 35.0
    2003 34.1
    2004 32.6
    2005 36.7
    2006 37.3
    2007 40.7
    2008 41.6
    2009 41.4
    2010 44.3
    2011 49.0
    2012 49.8
    2013 53.4
    2014 55.5

    Raw data available upon request.
    Last edited by Alnitak; May 23rd, 2014 at 01:14 AM.

  2. #2
    ecce homo rareboy's Avatar
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    Re: Future Opinion on Same Sex Marriage

    I love it.

  3. #3
    Slut JackinSea's Avatar
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    Re: Future Opinion on Same Sex Marriage

    There will be an anti-marriage floor of 25% - 30% of fanatics who'll be there for a generation, sort of like a "cannot be moved" block in computer defragging.

  4. #4
    Virginia Is for Lovers Alnitak's Avatar
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    Re: Future Opinion on Same Sex Marriage

    Quote Originally Posted by JackinSea View Post
    There will be an anti-marriage floor of 25% - 30% of fanatics who'll be there for a generation, sort of like a "cannot be moved" block in computer defragging.
    There are events that cause opinion to shift away from the graph, but growth tends to tack along in a predictable way. It will never reach 100%, but support for interracial marriage is getting close after passing the 50/50 point in the mid 90s.

  5. #5
    Bammer's Papa
    Kulindahr's Avatar
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    Re: Future Opinion on Same Sex Marriage

    So, no way of predicting when we'll have real marriage equality?

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

  6. #6
    Bammer's Papa
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    Re: Future Opinion on Same Sex Marriage

    In the future, everyone will have an opinion on gay marriage.

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

  7. #7
    Virginia Is for Lovers Alnitak's Avatar
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    Re: Future Opinion on Same Sex Marriage

    Quote Originally Posted by Kulindahr View Post
    In the future, everyone will have an opinion on gay marriage.

  8. #8
    Bammer's Papa
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    Re: Future Opinion on Same Sex Marriage

    ^
    That doof needs a bunch of very masculine guys to walk up to him at random intervals, read the passage, "Greet one another with a holy kiss" from the New Testament, and plant one on each cheek.

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

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