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  1. #1
    JUB Addict evanrick's Avatar
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    Senate Democrats surge, likelyhood of GOP takeover now gone, McConnell toast!

    Attacks on Obamacare, like the same attacks on Obama, have only weakened the attackers and strengthened Democrats. It also adds to the phrase, good policies make good politics.

    Leading their republican challengers include democrats from at least 5 battleground states including the democrat running against Mitch 'turkeyneck' McConnell, Alison Grimes, who now leads the 72 year old perennial minority leader from Kentucky. McConnell has brurned through $12 million, more than half his blood money, and its barely the general election.

    Efforts by the GOP to retake the senate are failing badly, and their 2016 chances look even dimmer.

    What is causing the sudden shift towards democrats retaining control of the senate? The fact that a recent poll showed Americans are increasingly trusting democrats more than republicans on an important issue: Healthcare.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...A3E21220140415
    http://forum.justusboys.com/forum/signaturepics/sigpic30903_2.gif

  2. #2

    Re: Senate Democrats surge, likelyhood of GOP takeover now gone, McConnell toast!

    Call me when Nate Sliver agrees.

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    Re: Senate Democrats surge, likelyhood of GOP takeover now gone, McConnell toast!

    want to believe it but don't at this point---but many months to go before election and americans change their mind in a second.

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    Re: Senate Democrats surge, likelyhood of GOP takeover now gone, McConnell toast!

    Evanrick, unfortunately, you're an overly optimistic liberal. There is a long fight ahead to defeat the Republicans in the next election. They have the Supreme Court in their favor that has stacked election variables in their favor.
    #439th oldest member on JUB.

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    Re: Senate Democrats surge, likelyhood of GOP takeover now gone, McConnell toast!

    Quote Originally Posted by Just_Believe18 View Post
    Evanrick, unfortunately, you're an overly optimistic liberal. There is a long fight ahead to defeat the Republicans in the next election. They have the Supreme Court in their favor that has stacked election variables in their favor.
    Indeed, between gutting the VRA and campaign finace rulings, the deck has been stacked in the Republicans favor, for 2014 and 2016, which IMO will be the most important election of our lifetime.
    Either through death or retirement, there will be openings on the Supreme Court and I shudder to think who a Ted Cruz or Jeb Bush would put on there.

  6. #6
    Oranje rareboy's Avatar
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    Re: Senate Democrats surge, likelyhood of GOP takeover now gone, McConnell toast!

    Quote Originally Posted by Vitamin View Post
    Call me when Nate Sliver agrees.
    This.

    Never underestimate the power of a gerrymandered legislature. It is the ruination of American democracy.

  7. #7
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    Re: Senate Democrats surge, likelyhood of GOP takeover now gone, McConnell toast!

    Nate Silver said that's what his math was saying as of then, not that a Republican Senate was a slam dunk. The most recent polls in some of those states indicate the R brand itself isn't so hot, and that they're going to need almost a 2010 repeat to pull that off.

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    Oranje rareboy's Avatar
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    Re: Senate Democrats surge, likelyhood of GOP takeover now gone, McConnell toast!

    There's no question that the polls are currently slim and 538 is a poll of polls.

    But unless the Democrats actually do something that really distinguishes them in the minds of voters...or the Repubs do something that also really distinguishes them negatively (like holocaust negatively), the odds are all in the Repubs favour.

    The gerrymandering of the United States has made a mockery of Congress.

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    Re: Senate Democrats surge, likelyhood of GOP takeover now gone, McConnell toast!

    I don't see how the article posted supports the actual title of this thread.

    unfortunately, 2014 is just a question of math... there are far more vulnerable Democrats than Republicans in this election cycle (the class of 2008 rode the Obama wave that elected Dems in otherwise traditionally Republican areas), and mid-term election voters tend to skew older and whiter, demographics that favor Republicans.

    Republicans taking control of the Senate is far from a sure-thing, but it seems to be looking increasingly likely (short of any kind of game-changer like a major scandal, terrorist attack, etc)

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    Re: Senate Democrats surge, likelyhood of GOP takeover now gone, McConnell toast!

    Actually, over the past couple of weeks it's looking less likely. Arkansas seems to be slightly lean-Dem these days, and the North Carolina looks as though the R's are headed for a nasty runoff. I think Landrieu will survive, as she's been in tough scrapes before (and having a French name can't hurt).

  11. #11
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    Re: Senate Democrats surge, likelyhood of GOP takeover now gone, McConnell toast!

    Politically speaking, it's an eternity between now and November. Anything can happen.

  12. #12

    Re: Senate Democrats surge, likelyhood of GOP takeover now gone, McConnell toast!

    Quote Originally Posted by evanrick View Post
    Attacks on Obamacare, like the same attacks on Obama, have only weakened the attackers and strengthened Democrats. It also adds to the phrase, good policies make good politics.

    Leading their republican challengers include democrats from at least 5 battleground states including the democrat running against Mitch 'turkeyneck' McConnell, Alison Grimes, who now leads the 72 year old perennial minority leader from Kentucky. McConnell has brurned through $12 million, more than half his blood money, and its barely the general election.

    Efforts by the GOP to retake the senate are failing badly, and their 2016 chances look even dimmer.

    What is causing the sudden shift towards democrats retaining control of the senate? The fact that a recent poll showed Americans are increasingly trusting democrats more than republicans on an important issue: Healthcare.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...A3E21220140415
    From your lips to God's ear. I wish it were so, but history tells me otherwise. Keeping my fingers crossed.

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    Re: Senate Democrats surge, likelyhood of GOP takeover now gone, McConnell toast!

    Quote Originally Posted by Vitamin View Post
    Call me when Nate Sliver agrees.
    This.

    When not even half of Americans think that either big party has a good idea for health care, even on that issue things can only be regarded as fluid. And as long as Boehner can get away with claiming that things like the "SKILLS Act" would actually help people get jobs, there's no certainty in anything.

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

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    Re: Senate Democrats surge, likelyhood of GOP takeover now gone, McConnell toast!

    Quote Originally Posted by Vitamin View Post
    Call me when Nate Sliver agrees.
    I join the chorus.

  15. #15
    JUB Addict evanrick's Avatar
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    Re: Senate Democrats surge, likelyhood of GOP takeover now gone, McConnell toast!

    Quote Originally Posted by JackinSea View Post
    Nate Silver said that's what his math was saying as of then, not that a Republican Senate was a slam dunk. The most recent polls in some of those states indicate the R brand itself isn't so hot, and that they're going to need almost a 2010 repeat to pull that off.
    Nate silver hasn't made any predictions in a month, since then Americans attitude towards Obamacare has shifted.

    http://www.msnbc.com/the-last-word
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    Re: Senate Democrats surge, likelyhood of GOP takeover now gone, McConnell toast!


    Why should anyone have to know anything? - Sheldon Cooper

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    Re: Senate Democrats surge, likelyhood of GOP takeover now gone, McConnell toast!

    Quote Originally Posted by rareboy View Post
    This.

    Never underestimate the power of a gerrymandered legislature. It is the ruination of American democracy.
    This thread is about the Senate, there is no gerrymandering there.

  18. #18
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    Re: Senate Democrats surge, likelyhood of GOP takeover now gone, McConnell toast!

    Quote Originally Posted by hotatlboi View Post
    This thread is about the Senate, there is no gerrymandering there.
    LOL

    Good point. We should make all the races statewide, so there couldn't be any gerrymandering at all.

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

  19. #19
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    Re: Senate Democrats surge, likelyhood of GOP takeover now gone, McConnell toast!

    Quote Originally Posted by hotatlboi View Post
    This thread is about the Senate, there is no gerrymandering there.

    You're totally right.

    Of course, the Senate is now largely an irrelevancy in the US.

  20. #20
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    Re: Senate Democrats surge, likelyhood of GOP takeover now gone, McConnell toast!

    Quote Originally Posted by rareboy View Post
    You're totally right.

    Of course, the Senate is now largely an irrelevancy in the US.
    You mean the CANADIAN Senate, not the U. S. one.

  21. #21
    Oranje rareboy's Avatar
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    Re: Senate Democrats surge, likelyhood of GOP takeover now gone, McConnell toast!

    Both of them are.

    They really add nothing of value anymore.

    HarperCo. want to turn ours into an elected body....what a disaster that would be.

    The Canadian Senate has been a joke for about 50 years and the US Senate has just become another hyper-partisan obstacle to governance.

    Although in truth, if the US won't give up the practise of gerrymandering the electoral districts, it would be better in the US to abolish Congress and just keep the Senate, the Executive and the Judicial branches.

    Oh. And not change the number of Senators from each state.
    Last edited by rareboy; April 18th, 2014 at 05:40 AM.

  22. #22
    JUB Addict chrisrobin's Avatar
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    Re: Senate Democrats surge, likelyhood of GOP takeover now gone, McConnell toast!

    Quote Originally Posted by rareboy View Post
    You're totally right.

    Of course, the Senate Federal Government is now largely an irrelevancy in the US.
    QFT. We're being ruled by a triumvirate (in the Ancient Roman tradition):

    1. Grover Norquist
    2. Wayne Lapierre
    3. The Koch Brothers

    With some assistance from SCOTUS vis-a-vis Citizens United, and the latest McCutcheon ruling plus the influence of A.L.E.C.

    Why should anyone have to know anything? - Sheldon Cooper

  23. #23
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    Re: Senate Democrats surge, likelyhood of GOP takeover now gone, McConnell toast!

    A threat perhaps, but as the President is no fan of any of those groups, it's a stretch to say we're currently being "ruled" by them exactly.

  24. #24
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    Re: Senate Democrats surge, likelyhood of GOP takeover now gone, McConnell toast!

    Quote Originally Posted by rareboy View Post
    Both of them are.

    They really add nothing of value anymore.

    HarperCo. want to turn ours into an elected body....what a disaster that would be.

    The Canadian Senate has been a joke for about 50 years and the US Senate has just become another hyper-partisan obstacle to governance.

    Although in truth, if the US won't give up the practise of gerrymandering the electoral districts, it would be better in the US to abolish Congress and just keep the Senate, the Executive and the Judicial branches.

    Oh. And not change the number of Senators from each state.
    Just do away with electoral districts.

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

  25. #25

    Re: Senate Democrats surge, likelyhood of GOP takeover now gone, McConnell toast!

    Quote Originally Posted by rareboy View Post
    Both of them are.

    They really add nothing of value anymore.

    HarperCo. want to turn ours into an elected body....what a disaster that would be.

    The Canadian Senate has been a joke for about 50 years and the US Senate has just become another hyper-partisan obstacle to governance.

    Although in truth, if the US won't give up the practise of gerrymandering the electoral districts, it would be better in the US to abolish Congress and just keep the Senate, the Executive and the Judicial branches.

    Oh. And not change the number of Senators from each state.
    The three branches of government in the US are Executive, Legislative, and Judicial. The House and Senate composing the Legislative branch. That's your American Civics lesson for the day.

    If we do decide that gerrymandering needs to be done away with it would be better to replace it with proportional representation rather than nothing at all.

  26. #26
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    Re: Senate Democrats surge, likelyhood of GOP takeover now gone, McConnell toast!

    Quote Originally Posted by Vitamin View Post
    If we do decide that gerrymandering needs to be done away with it would be better to replace it with proportional representation rather than nothing at all.
    = do away with electoral districts

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

  27. #27

    Re: Senate Democrats surge, likelyhood of GOP takeover now gone, McConnell toast!

    Quote Originally Posted by Kulindahr View Post
    = do away with electoral districts
    Doing away with one thing does not guarantee something will replace it.

  28. #28
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    Re: Senate Democrats surge, likelyhood of GOP takeover now gone, McConnell toast!

    Quote Originally Posted by Vitamin View Post
    Doing away with one thing does not guarantee something will replace it.
    That makes no sense. If you do away with electoral districts, then representatives will be elected at large.

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

  29. #29
    JUB Addict evanrick's Avatar
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    Re: Senate Democrats surge, likelyhood of GOP takeover now gone, McConnell toast!

    two things that have had a negative impact on our democracy is congressional rules that set the number of congressman to 435 and that no longer allow discharge petitions unless you have a majority already on your side. this would get around the speaker of the house if you wanted to pass a bill, as it is now, the speaker controls who gets to vote on any bill unlike in the past.
    http://forum.justusboys.com/forum/signaturepics/sigpic30903_2.gif

  30. #30
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    Re: Senate Democrats surge, likelyhood of GOP takeover now gone, McConnell toast!

    Quote Originally Posted by evanrick View Post
    two things that have had a negative impact on our democracy is congressional rules that set the number of congressman to 435 and that no longer allow discharge petitions unless you have a majority already on your side. this would get around the speaker of the house if you wanted to pass a bill, as it is now, the speaker controls who gets to vote on any bill unlike in the past.
    Yes; freezing the number at 435 is contrary to the concept of the House as the people's house -- for that, a representative should be known by most of the people represented.

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

  31. #31
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    Re: Senate Democrats surge, likelyhood of GOP takeover now gone, McConnell toast!

    Quote Originally Posted by rareboy View Post
    You're totally right.

    Of course, the Senate is now largely an irrelevancy in the US.
    False. The Senate still has more influence than the House.

    It has sole jurisdiction over executive appointment confirmations, as well as treaties (we just signed a big nuke treaty with Russia a few years ago).

    And it still has the final say in a lot of legislation due to the filibuster.

  32. #32
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    Re: Senate Democrats surge, likelyhood of GOP takeover now gone, McConnell toast!

    Quote Originally Posted by Kulindahr View Post
    Yes; freezing the number at 435 is contrary to the concept of the House as the people's house -- for that, a representative should be known by most of the people represented.
    In a country the size of the USA, a House with enough members for that to be true would be an organizational impossibility.

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    Re: Senate Democrats surge, likelyhood of GOP takeover now gone, McConnell toast!

    Quote Originally Posted by hotatlboi View Post
    In a country the size of the USA, a House with enough members for that to be true would be an organizational impossibility.
    Then we need a new structure.

    And actually we've learned enough to be able to do it using that: let the House itself have five thousand members, then let them elect a quarter of their number elect the House that sits on par with the Senate. Experience suggests that we'd actually filter out a lot of the nuts that way.

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

  34. #34
    Rambunctiously Pugnacious JayHawk's Avatar
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    Re: Senate Democrats surge, likelyhood of GOP takeover now gone, McConnell toast!

    In summary.... Government:

    Everyone can be great, because everyone can serve.
    ~ Martin Luther King, Jr.


  35. #35
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    Re: Senate Democrats surge, likelyhood of GOP takeover now gone, McConnell toast!

    Quote Originally Posted by JayHawk View Post
    In summary.... Government:

    Government "of the pissed, by the pissed, and for the pissed"?


    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

  36. #36
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    Re: Senate Democrats surge, likelyhood of GOP takeover now gone, McConnell toast!

    At this point the New York Times is rating the Senate after November's election control at a tossup.

    Every day, our computer churns through the latest polls and reams of historical data to calculate both parties’ chances of winning control of the Senate. Although the Democrats currently have a 51 percent chance, that doesn’t mean we’re predicting the Democrats to win the Senate — the probability is essentially the same as a coin flip.

    http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/...nate-model/?hp

  37. #37
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    Re: Senate Democrats surge, likelyhood of GOP takeover now gone, McConnell toast!

    Tails we all lose.

    Heads we all lose.

  38. #38
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    Re: Senate Democrats surge, likelyhood of GOP takeover now gone, McConnell toast!

    November is still an eternity away, considering that even this off-year election could become the first election approaching $1 trillion, now that partisan interests can give up to the limit for each candidate that they choose to support. Therefore, those (individuals or corporations rich enough to afford it) can give the top limit (per candidate) to as many as 468 races - 435 Representatives, 33 Senators - if they choose to do so. Of course the super-PAC monies such as Club For Growth, Americans For Prosperity, etc. can add hundreds of billions to this. (Everytime I hear Club For Growth, why do I always think of Rogaine or something? LOL)

    Do federal campaign laws affect elections which are not federal in their impact, such as governors, those running for state legislatures, all the way down to dog-catcher elections?

    ]
    Quote Originally Posted by Kulindahr View Post
    That makes no sense. If you do away with electoral districts, then representatives will be elected at large.
    I can just see it now.

    CALIFORNIA BALLOT.

    Below is a list of all people running for Congress of the United States, grouped by party. Vote for any 53 of these.
    "All legal U. S. residents who are 18 years or older, shall have an unconditional right to vote." - 28th Amendment, US Constitution?
    "But, hey, who cares about women and their rights when the religious liberty of a nationwide chain of arts and crafts stores is at stake?" - Daily Kos, 30 June 2014
    "I distrust those people who know so well what God wants them to do, because I notice it always coincides with their own desires" - Susan B. Anthony

  39. #39
    Bammer's Papa
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    Code of Conduct

    Re: Senate Democrats surge, likelyhood of GOP takeover now gone, McConnell toast!

    Quote Originally Posted by frankfrank View Post
    November is still an eternity away, considering that even this off-year election could become the first election approaching $1 trillion, now that partisan interests can give up to the limit for each candidate that they choose to support. Therefore, those (individuals or corporations rich enough to afford it) can give the top limit (per candidate) to as many as 468 races - 435 Representatives, 33 Senators - if they choose to do so. Of course the super-PAC monies such as Club For Growth, Americans For Prosperity, etc. can add hundreds of billions to this. (Everytime I hear Club For Growth, why do I always think of Rogaine or something? LOL)

    Do federal campaign laws affect elections which are not federal in their impact, such as governors, those running for state legislatures, all the way down to dog-catcher elections?

    ]
    I can just see it now.

    CALIFORNIA BALLOT.

    Below is a list of all people running for Congress of the United States, grouped by party. Vote for any 53 of these.
    Oregon would probably send people from three to five different parties to Congress. California would have at least seven.

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

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