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  1. #1
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    A robotic economy

    Someone mentioned a "post-economic society" in the Uncle Sam's new toy thread, one where everything is done by robots. I think "post-economic" is probably a bad descriptor, because there would still be the economics of supply and all -- it would just be done by robots. But it's the sort of society we can conceive of, because our robots are getting better and better. Of course there are two elements besides robot labor needed to get there, namely unlimited energy and unlimited resources. The first is nowhere in sight; the second is, via asteroid mining, at least for metals.

    Some questions I thought it would be interesting to ponder:

    How would the transition to a robotic society/economy happen?
    Would a robotic society/economy be a good thing?
    With everything done by robots, what would humans do?


    The first one may be the most critical, since the most effective and versatile robots at the moment are owned by corporations, and I can't see them letting go so robots can make things for everyone for free. I'll forbear commenting on other aspects, for the moment.

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

  2. #2
    Rambunctiously Pugnacious JayHawk's Avatar
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    Re: A robotic economy

    We are already seeing the effects of a transition to a robotic society. I think the ultimate outcome would be like Elysium. A select few would benefit from such things and the rest of humanity suffers under that boot. Think about the tasks being relegated to machines these days, that is in turn making our workforce lower paid, less skilled, and fewer required.

    The end would be a openly oppressed underclass or a massive uprising.
    Everyone can be great, because everyone can serve.
    ~ Martin Luther King, Jr.


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    Re: A robotic economy

    Quote Originally Posted by JayHawk View Post
    We are already seeing the effects of a transition to a robotic society. I think the ultimate outcome would be like Elysium. A select few would benefit from such things and the rest of humanity suffers under that boot. Think about the tasks being relegated to machines these days, that is in turn making our workforce lower paid, less skilled, and fewer required.

    The end would be a openly oppressed underclass or a massive uprising.
    Well, that's where current Republican policies would take us, handing ever more to the super-wealthy, making them believe they have a right to it.


    edit: the other option is described fairly well in a novel called Voyage From Yesteryear, by James Hogan.

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

  4. #4
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    Re: A robotic economy

    Quote Originally Posted by Kulindahr View Post
    Someone mentioned a "post-economic society" in the Uncle Sam's new toy thread, one where everything is done by robots. I think "post-economic" is probably a bad descriptor, because there would still be the economics of supply and all -- it would just be done by robots. But it's the sort of society we can conceive of, because our robots are getting better and better. Of course there are two elements besides robot labor needed to get there, namely unlimited energy and unlimited resources. The first is nowhere in sight; the second is, via asteroid mining, at least for metals.

    Some questions I thought it would be interesting to ponder:

    How would the transition to a robotic society/economy happen?
    Would a robotic society/economy be a good thing?
    With everything done by robots, what would humans do?


    The first one may be the most critical, since the most effective and versatile robots at the moment are owned by corporations, and I can't see them letting go so robots can make things for everyone for free. I'll forbear commenting on other aspects, for the moment.
    You are like, seriously, channeling Asimov.
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    Re: A robotic economy

    Quote Originally Posted by JayHawk View Post
    We are already seeing the effects of a transition to a robotic society. I think the ultimate outcome would be like Elysium. A select few would benefit from such things and the rest of humanity suffers under that boot. Think about the tasks being relegated to machines these days, that is in turn making our workforce lower paid, less skilled, and fewer required.

    The end would be a openly oppressed underclass or a massive uprising.
    If Robots can replace workers, they can also replace soldiers.
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    Re: A robotic economy

    Quote Originally Posted by TX-Beau View Post
    You are like, seriously, channeling Asimov.
    Not even close.

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

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    Re: A robotic economy

    Quote Originally Posted by TX-Beau View Post
    If Robots can replace workers, they can also replace soldiers.
    Which is why JH's scenario is one that would likely end the future of the human race. And the GOP wants us to go that direction.

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

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    And cars will take jobs away from smiths
    That we are capable only of being what we are, remains our unforgivable sin.
    - Gene Wolfe

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    Re: A robotic economy

    Quote Originally Posted by Rolyo85 View Post
    And cars will take jobs away from smiths
    I saw this B science fiction movie once in which a guy had the perfect robotic sex toy he was in love with, and when she broke down, he had to run the gauntlet of Mad Max terrain to get a replacement.

    SO robot sex slaves are going to put wives and girlfriends out of business. Gay men are pretty much safe as so many of us are ROBOTS ANYWAY!!!!! (grin)
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    Re: A robotic economy

    Quote Originally Posted by Kulindahr View Post
    Which is why JH's scenario is one that would likely end the future of the human race. And the GOP wants us to go that direction.
    Will Robot Marines be hired by Dink?
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    Rambunctiously Pugnacious JayHawk's Avatar
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    Re: A robotic economy

    Quote Originally Posted by Rolyo85 View Post
    And cars will take jobs away from smiths
    There are a lot less blacksmiths... agreed. I dont think the point is thwart technology. (well at least not mine) More like our current economic and political policies and belief system makes it impossible to have complete automation serving humanity while we all live in some Valhalla.

    Would be nice if we could all laze about and paint while taking in some exercise and practicing our poetry..... or maybe not. The current trend towards automation makes money for the corporate owners of that technology and pushes all the job market into service industries with a few experts to maintain the equipment. Can you imagine if that was across the board?
    Everyone can be great, because everyone can serve.
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    Re: A robotic economy

    Quote Originally Posted by Rolyo85 View Post
    And cars will take jobs away from smiths
    Except they didn't -- they just transformed the jobs into something a bit different for people to do. Today's robots take away the job and don't transform it, just eliminate it. The critical difference, though, is that the car sits there all by itself and does nothing without a human to run it, while the robots barely need human supervision -- and many experts say we're not far from having robots that can do many tasks without any human supervision. Prior machines left labor for humans to do or created new labor in order to support those machines, but when machines can do their own support, human labor goes by the wayside.

    I've already posted at least one link to material by experts in the field who say we're looking at a major job loss to machines, a loss that will be permanent because we're not just replacing one type of job or another, but looking at replacing all labor, period. Mowing lawns, shopping, fixing cars, serving drinks, all are headed toward being done by robots. So the question is what humans will do with essentially no jobs -- and JayHawk gave one frightening possibility.

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

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    Re: A robotic economy

    Quote Originally Posted by JayHawk View Post
    There are a lot less blacksmiths... agreed. I dont think the point is thwart technology. (well at least not mine) More like our current economic and political policies and belief system makes it impossible to have complete automation serving humanity while we all live in some Valhalla.

    Would be nice if we could all laze about and paint while taking in some exercise and practicing our poetry..... or maybe not. The current trend towards automation makes money for the corporate owners of that technology and pushes all the job market into service industries with a few experts to maintain the equipment. Can you imagine if that was across the board?
    "Across the board" meaning not just the high-paying jobs being done by robots, but the low-paying ones, too. We already have robots doing housecleaning and plowing, fertilizing and seeding fields, driving cars, flying airplanes, welding airplane frames....

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

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    Re: A robotic economy

    I'm pretty sure there are far far far far less smiths and livery stables and those jobs didn't "transform" into anything but obsolescence.

    Every tech revolution has put someone out of work in exactly the way you're proposing, to be serious, we're still a very long way from the kind of AI that is capable of replacing even a mediocre human mind in the workplace - if that is even possible with the kind of Tech we are pursuing (it may not be possible to get there with the tech we have - it may require a whole different line of inquiry - we just don't know.)

    Unless you want to get into Terminator kind of conspiracies I suspect the transition will be far less spectacular and will end up being a gradual transition from one society to another. Which is not to say the change won't be profound, I just don't think that it will be necessarily DRAMA!!!
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    Rambunctiously Pugnacious JayHawk's Avatar
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    Re: A robotic economy

    Quote Originally Posted by TX-Beau View Post
    I'm pretty sure there are far far far far less smiths and livery stables and those jobs didn't "transform" into anything but obsolescence.

    Every tech revolution has put someone out of work in exactly the way you're proposing, to be serious, we're still a very long way from the kind of AI that is capable of replacing even a mediocre human mind in the workplace - if that is even possible with the kind of Tech we are pursuing (it may not be possible to get there with the tech we have - it may require a whole different line of inquiry - we just don't know.)

    Unless you want to get into Terminator kind of conspiracies I suspect the transition will be far less spectacular and will end up being a gradual transition from one society to another. Which is not to say the change won't be profound, I just don't think that it will be necessarily DRAMA!!!
    All of those mechanical pounding metal jobs just disappeared and guys busting their knuckles with often little education didnt replace the smiths? Automotive repair education is precise now so one can master operating the machines used to do the work... still it took time.

    We are a long way from the AI required, but when one says future they don't necessarily mean tomorrow.
    Everyone can be great, because everyone can serve.
    ~ Martin Luther King, Jr.


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    Re: A robotic economy

    Quote Originally Posted by TX-Beau View Post
    I'm pretty sure there are far far far far less smiths and livery stables and those jobs didn't "transform" into anything but obsolescence.

    Every tech revolution has put someone out of work in exactly the way you're proposing, to be serious, we're still a very long way from the kind of AI that is capable of replacing even a mediocre human mind in the workplace - if that is even possible with the kind of Tech we are pursuing (it may not be possible to get there with the tech we have - it may require a whole different line of inquiry - we just don't know.)

    Unless you want to get into Terminator kind of conspiracies I suspect the transition will be far less spectacular and will end up being a gradual transition from one society to another. Which is not to say the change won't be profound, I just don't think that it will be necessarily DRAMA!!!
    Tesla Motors, in choosing to build a factory here rather than overseas, replaced four thousand jobs with something like a fiftieth of that. Robots can now build cars without human assistance, and the same for most of our manufactured goods. Apple is even looking at the possibility of having iPhones built by robots, and if that can be done, then any manufacturing job can be done so.

    And we don't need any Terminator level of AI, either -- just teachable robots, which already exist.

    If twenty percent of all humans are going to be permanently unemployed in the near future, I'd say there's going to be drama -- the only question is what kind.

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

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    Re: A robotic economy

    Quote Originally Posted by JayHawk View Post
    All of those mechanical pounding metal jobs just disappeared and guys busting their knuckles with often little education didnt replace the smiths? Automotive repair education is precise now so one can master operating the machines used to do the work... still it took time.

    We are a long way from the AI required, but when one says future they don't necessarily mean tomorrow.
    There's a critical point: in the past, inventions and advances just meant new kinds of jobs because someone was needed to run the new machines -- but robots run themselves.

    Think of it as a massive influx of immigrants who work 24/7, don't complain, don't need housing or medical care... that would kill gobs of American jobs. The difference is hat it isn't humans replacing humans, it's humans just being shoved out of the equation.

    BTW, we're not "a long way from the AI required". One company is marketing robots with no skills at all -- but they can be taught to do almost anything. Here in Oregon, the job of bridge inspections can now be done by robots, because someone wrote software that let the robot follow an experienced veteran inspector and learn all his tricks, far faster than any human he'd ever trained and far more accurately. The same can be done for any field, and when the cost of robots comes down to where they're cheaper than minimum wage labor, service jobs will start disappearing faster than any other force in history has caused.

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

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    Re: A robotic economy

    Quote Originally Posted by Kulindahr View Post
    Tesla Motors, in choosing to build a factory here rather than overseas, replaced four thousand jobs with something like a fiftieth of that. Robots can now build cars without human assistance, and the same for most of our manufactured goods. Apple is even looking at the possibility of having iPhones built by robots, and if that can be done, then any manufacturing job can be done so.

    And we don't need any Terminator level of AI, either -- just teachable robots, which already exist.

    If twenty percent of all humans are going to be permanently unemployed in the near future, I'd say there's going to be drama -- the only question is what kind.
    This is not actually true, these robots didn't build anything "without human assistance," indeed without humans they would have built nothing at all, they may have a large degree of functional autonomy (being able to do what they are programmed to do,) but they aren't anywhere near autonomously sentient in any way. It'a a fallacy to say that because you can make a computer operate according to parameters you've decided (including binary operations that for lack of a better word mimic "learning" - there is no computer yet that will pick up completely unprogrammed something like reading like a child will), that it will eventually be able to think for itself. That just isn't how it works.
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    Re: A robotic economy

    Quote Originally Posted by TX-Beau View Post
    This is not actually true, these robots didn't build anything "without human assistance," indeed without humans they would have built nothing at all, they may have a large degree of functional autonomy (being able to do what they are programmed to do,) but they aren't anywhere near autonomously sentient in any way. It'a a fallacy to say that because you can make a computer operate according to parameters you've decided (including binary operations that for lack of a better word mimic "learning" - there is no computer yet that will pick up completely unprogrammed something like reading like a child will), that it will eventually be able to think for itself. That just isn't how it works.
    But once the humans program them, the humans are no longer needed. Those robots do indeed build cars without human assistance; there's even a factory where no humans are allowed, because they get in the way.

    Meanwhile, learning software is getting better fast. It's good enough that robots with no experience at doing anything can be given a set of blueprints, then proceed to find the parts they need and set aside what they don't, and build a structure faster and more precisely than humans. They weren't programmed to do a specific task, they were just programmed to learn and to work together. Robots are even becoming capable of designing and building simple machines to do things they can't do themselves -- so far, just the sorts of machines the Romans could have had, but it's a beginning.

    Of course the nice thing about that is it won't be long before we can send such a team of robots to the moon and have them build a base so that when humans go, they'll have hot showers and all the rest when they arrive. Then we do it for Mars, including having them build a space cable (elevator to orbit) so the human arrivals can ride down without worrying about re-entry. Then the question, of course, is whether that will be the province of an elite sitting at the top of a very uneven economic ladder, or open to anyone with the skill and drive.
    Last edited by Kulindahr; November 24th, 2013 at 11:33 PM.

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

  20. #20
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    If too many companies automate and outsource to the point of widespread underemployment in their home market, then the fact is, the demand side of their business model fails.

    Every employee is a potential customer.
    Cheap credit was offered to encourage people to spend beyond their means, to keep consumption high.
    But as time has shown, this approach soon catches up on itself. Debts get defaulted on, the money to pay never existed. Demand falls.
    Blah blah blah, something enigmatic sounding...

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    Re: A robotic economy

    Quote Originally Posted by Kabluey View Post
    If too many companies automate and outsource to the point of widespread underemployment in their home market, then the fact is, the demand side of their business model fails.

    Every employee is a potential customer.
    Cheap credit was offered to encourage people to spend beyond their means, to keep consumption high.
    But as time has shown, this approach soon catches up on itself. Debts get defaulted on, the money to pay never existed. Demand falls.
    That's a good point! Of course one solution would be to tax the incredible profits manufacturers would get from being roboticized and use those to subsidize the unemployed so they can continue to be customers, but that merely postpones the real confrontation. Ultimately we'll have either a society such as JayHawk described, or one where no one has to work, but everyone can if they wish, and be creative as they wish. But unless there's a major shift in the common attitudes of people, neither is going to be a particularly bright future.

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

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    Re: A robotic economy

    Quote Originally Posted by Kulindahr View Post
    We already have robots doing housecleaning...
    And now the fist robot SUICIDE (a housecleaning robot) has been recorded. I first heard about it Saturday on the NPR Radio show WAIT, WAIT, DON'T TELL ME.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/1...n_4268064.html
    "All legal U. S. residents who are 18 years or older, shall have an unconditional right to vote." - 28th Amendment, US Constitution?
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  23. #23

    Re: A robotic economy

    Even if we did build a perfect society where no one had to work "unless you wanted to"(lol) people would still get bored, and bored people often resort to violence to tempoarily end the monotony.

    The government will never allow such a society to exist. It would pose a threat to them. I have no idea how far robotic labor will go, but it will have to end somewhere.

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    Re: A robotic economy

    Imagine how angry people will get when a half-robot gets itself elected as president of the USA.

  25. #25

    Re: A robotic economy

    Quote Originally Posted by Harke the Boeotarch View Post
    Imagine how angry people will get when a half-robot gets itself elected as president of the USA.
    They'd be fine with it as long the skin covering half it's body is white.

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    Re: A robotic economy

    Quote Originally Posted by TX-Beau View Post
    I saw this B science fiction movie once in which a guy had the perfect robotic sex toy he was in love with, and when she broke down, he had to run the gauntlet of Mad Max terrain to get a replacement.
    Saw and liked that movie too. I'd look its title up now were it not I have an errand to run at one of the local cruisebars.

    Quote Originally Posted by Vitamin View Post
    They'd be fine with it as long the skin covering half it's body is white.
    As a teen in the nineties I was jerking off to Cyborg from the Teen Titans...

    The story in my comic had Cyborg receive a plastic casing over his machine parts to make him look like an ordinary (black) person only to have it melt off when he needed to use his robotic superpowers... I think.

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    PerScientiam AdJustitiam bankside's Avatar
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    Re: A robotic economy

    What will we do when a farmer has enough technology to work more than the 5 acres a farmer can plough with his ox! Once farms start getting up to 30 or 40 acres, there will be no farm jobs left and then the farmer's sons will have nothing to do ever! A few of them could've gone into candle making, but I hear this guy named Heinrich Goebel just invented something called a light bulb, and once Edison steals the idea, it's all over for candle makers too.

    Apocalypse!

    The economy gets rid of entire categories of job, and either their is shared prosperity as a result, or there is revolution. But never a perpetual dystopia.
    Americans need to keep their guns so they can protect themselves from gun violence just like Nancy Lanza did. And like Chris Kyle did. And like Gabby Giffords did. And like Tom Clements did. And like Michael Piemonte. And Joseph Wilcox.

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    Re: A robotic economy

    Quote Originally Posted by bankside View Post
    Apocalypse!
    Apocalypse is a black cyborg too.

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    Re: A robotic economy

    Yes. Technology always progresses over time. Within energy limitations the sky is the limit. A blissful future for humanity is our destiny.

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    Re: A robotic economy

    Quote Originally Posted by Rolyo85 View Post
    And cars will take jobs away from smiths
    I went another direction with this comment.

    The Cars:



    The Smiths:



    But back on the topic, the change over began years ago, with robotic welders taking over jobs welding frames together in American Auto manufacturers in the eighties and nineties. The progression continues through "self service" check out lanes in the grocery, Automated teller machines, buying and printing your movie tickets at home before you go to the cinema, and many other things that we never even think of as taking jobs away from people. Now, we have drones that can fight wars by remote control. How much longer can it be before some computer tell someone "I can't let you do that, Dave".

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    Quote Originally Posted by Harke the Boeotarch View Post

    Apocalypse is a black cyborg too.
    Not really a cyborg, and Egyptian, not black
    That we are capable only of being what we are, remains our unforgivable sin.
    - Gene Wolfe

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    Re: A robotic economy

    Quote Originally Posted by Vitamin View Post
    Even if we did build a perfect society where no one had to work "unless you wanted to"(lol) people would still get bored, and bored people often resort to violence to tempoarily end the monotony.

    The government will never allow such a society to exist. It would pose a threat to them. I have no idea how far robotic labor will go, but it will have to end somewhere.
    Why does it have to end anywhere?

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

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    Re: A robotic economy

    Quote Originally Posted by bankside View Post
    What will we do when a farmer has enough technology to work more than the 5 acres a farmer can plough with his ox! Once farms start getting up to 30 or 40 acres, there will be no farm jobs left and then the farmer's sons will have nothing to do ever! A few of them could've gone into candle making, but I hear this guy named Heinrich Goebel just invented something called a light bulb, and once Edison steals the idea, it's all over for candle makers too.

    Apocalypse!

    The economy gets rid of entire categories of job, and either their is shared prosperity as a result, or there is revolution. But never a perpetual dystopia.
    These examples are irrelevant. The shift to robot labor is not a change in degree, but in kind. Robots can replace not just manual laborers -- all of them -- but others, too. There will be robot engineers, bank tellers--everything. About the only thing robots will be incapable of is being creative... and in some fields, such as architecture, even that is in doubt.

    So humans will be left free to be creative. Maybe we'll invent new things to be creative with or about.

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

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    Re: A robotic economy

    Quote Originally Posted by Rolyo85 View Post
    Not really a cyborg, and Egyptian, not black
    Some of the ancient Egyptians were black, even some of their pharaos. Also, Apo's hands transform into guns etc.

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    Re: A robotic economy

    I want to have a cybrog best friend my faith in humanity is waning anyway

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    Re: A robotic economy

    Quote Originally Posted by Scealle View Post
    I want to have a cybrog best friend my faith in humanity is waning anyway
    How about an android like Commander Data, but programmed to be a loyal BF?

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

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    Re: A robotic economy

    Quote Originally Posted by bankside View Post
    What will we do when a farmer has enough technology to work more than the 5 acres a farmer can plough with his ox! Once farms start getting up to 30 or 40 acres, there will be no farm jobs left and then the farmer's sons will have nothing to do ever! A few of them could've gone into candle making, but I hear this guy named Heinrich Goebel just invented something called a light bulb, and once Edison steals the idea, it's all over for candle makers too.

    Apocalypse!

    The economy gets rid of entire categories of job, and either their is shared prosperity as a result, or there is revolution. But never a perpetual dystopia.
    Except electricity provided millions more jobs in production, product, distribution, construction, etc then all the candle makers ever born on Earth numbered. Good career paying jobs that candle makers never would regret applying for and paying their own power bill.

    I think people are vastly underestimating the extent of the technology bursting through currently. Its rapid and its across the spectrum in all fields. Not just limited to robotics, but everything from logistics to communication. The view you and others are expressing is true but if there is nothing else of substance for the majority of the people to go as it was eliminated through technology then there is a problem.
    Rail replaced the state coach for passenger transport and the then came the auto, airplane and then bigger airplanes. But it all didn't happen at once.
    You can see what happens to a community that loses all of its industry/employers of substance rapidly regardless of cause, Detroit or take a wonder ride through Youngstown Ohio in rush hour don't worry about a traffic jam.

    Appalachia suffers when it had coal mining jobs. But there is no need to pay labor when you buy environmental regulations allowing for earth moving machines that can scrap a mountain in only a short time and move it with trucks that have wheels the size of a mature Oak tree. Part time at Wal-mart or Burger King in southwestern WVA will never allow you to live as good as one could as a miner. There is nothing left.
    Last edited by vulgar_newcomer; November 30th, 2013 at 01:00 PM.

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    Re: A robotic economy

    Quote Originally Posted by vulgar_newcomer View Post
    Except electricity provided millions more jobs in production, product, distribution, construction, etc then all the candle makers ever born on Earth numbered. Good career paying jobs that candle makers never would regret applying for and paying their own power bill.

    I think people are vastly underestimating the extent of the technology bursting through currently. Its rapid and its across the spectrum in all fields. Not just limited to robotics, but everything from logistics to communication. The view you and others are expressing is true but if there is nothing else of substance for the majority of the people to go as it was eliminated through technology then there is a problem.
    Rail replaced the state coach for passenger transport and the then came the auto, airplane and then bigger airplanes. But it all didn't happen at once.
    You can see what happens to a community that loses all of its industry/employers of substance rapidly regardless of cause, Detroit or take a wonder ride through Youngstown Ohio in rush hour don't worry about a traffic jam.

    Appalachia suffers when it had coal mining jobs. But there is no need to pay labor when you buy environmental regulations allowing for earth moving machines that can scrap a mountain in only a short time and move it with trucks that have wheels the size of a mature Oak tree. Part time at Wal-mart or Burger King in southwestern WVA will never allow you to live as good as one could as a miner. There is nothing left.
    Yes.

    There's a vast difference between an invention replacing the thing some people make, but still requiring people to make it, and an invention that plain replaces labor altogether. With robotics, jobs aren't shifted to making this new invention, because the robots themselves are built by other robots. It won't be long before they'll get repaired by other robots as well. No human labor will be needed anywhere along the way: robots will mine the ore or harvest the crops, and robots will do the refining and processing; robots will take care of transport, warehousing, and every other step. When a robot wears out, other robots will dismantle it and send the materials back "downstream" to be used again.

    In the US we complain about losing jobs to China. But China is worrying about losing jobs as well, and many of those jobs aren't going to other countries, they're going to robots. In some areas of manufacturing, a hundred robots can replace several thousand workers, so every time a new factory with robots is built, the overall number of jobs for people goes down, and most of the loss is permanent. It's a situation which threatens the end of every economic system we know, from Marxism to laissez-faire capitalism. How we handle it will determine not merely the future of the human race, but possibly whether we have a future.

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

  39. #39

    Re: A robotic economy

    Quote Originally Posted by Kulindahr View Post
    Why does it have to end anywhere?
    Because people have a horrible tendacy to get bored. Often times easily.


    Quote Originally Posted by Kulindahr View Post
    Yes.

    There's a vast difference between an invention replacing the thing some people make, but still requiring people to make it, and an invention that plain replaces labor altogether. With robotics, jobs aren't shifted to making this new invention, because the robots themselves are built by other robots. It won't be long before they'll get repaired by other robots as well. No human labor will be needed anywhere along the way: robots will mine the ore or harvest the crops, and robots will do the refining and processing; robots will take care of transport, warehousing, and every other step. When a robot wears out, other robots will dismantle it and send the materials back "downstream" to be used again.

    In the US we complain about losing jobs to China. But China is worrying about losing jobs as well, and many of those jobs aren't going to other countries, they're going to robots. In some areas of manufacturing, a hundred robots can replace several thousand workers, so every time a new factory with robots is built, the overall number of jobs for people goes down, and most of the loss is permanent. It's a situation which threatens the end of every economic system we know, from Marxism to laissez-faire capitalism. How we handle it will determine not merely the future of the human race, but possibly whether we have a future.
    Ponder this question for me: If we can make robots intelligent enough to build other robots, and if all other jobs have been replaced, what would be the motivation of humans to get into political office? Wouldn't the end result be robot overlords?

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    Re: A robotic economy

    Quote Originally Posted by Vitamin View Post
    Because people have a horrible tendacy to get bored. Often times easily.
    I can't see how boredom could end a robotic society/economy -- laziness would tend to preserve it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Vitamin View Post
    Ponder this question for me: If we can make robots intelligent enough to build other robots, and if all other jobs have been replaced, what would be the motivation of humans to get into political office? Wouldn't the end result be robot overlords?
    We have as yet no indication that we are anywhere near having an AI even close to showing anything resembling creativity. So far, all robots can do is follow instructions and programming. So I'm not worried about "robot overlords".

    The idea that people would be discouraged from seeking political office is interesting. But I think there will always be some who like having at least the appearance of being above others, so maybe the question is whether talented and dedicated people would still be motivated to get into political office (OTOH, in the US we already have that problem).

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

  41. #41

    Re: A robotic economy

    Quote Originally Posted by Kulindahr View Post
    I can't see how boredom could end a robotic society/economy -- laziness would tend to preserve it.
    Boredom and laziness are two very different things existing almost on the opposite sides of two extremes. One doesn't want to do anything, the other feel he's not doing enough.

    And as I've already pointed out in this thread bored people often resort to violence. A bored society would implode into a cesspool of violent, miserable, uncontrollable wretches.

    We have as yet no indication that we are anywhere near having an AI even close to showing anything resembling creativity. So far, all robots can do is follow instructions and programming. So I'm not worried about "robot overlords".

    The idea that people would be discouraged from seeking political office is interesting. But I think there will always be some who like having at least the appearance of being above others, so maybe the question is whether talented and dedicated people would still be motivated to get into political office (OTOH, in the US we already have that problem).
    I thought the premise of this thread was that human equivalent AI was attainable?

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    Re: A robotic economy

    Quote Originally Posted by Vitamin View Post
    Boredom and laziness are two very different things existing almost on the opposite sides of two extremes. One doesn't want to do anything, the other feel he's not doing enough.

    And as I've already pointed out in this thread bored people often resort to violence. A bored society would implode into a cesspool of violent, miserable, uncontrollable wretches.
    Boredom --> violence --> destruction of robots?

    Possibly. But that would also depend on how aware people are of how important the robots are -- many people, I'd think, would get angry at those trying to destroy robots, and stop them.

    In a way it could be evolution in action: people with enough self-motivation to avoid boredom or at least know what to do with it would tend to triumph; people whose only reaction to boredom is violence (or even apathy) wouldn't. The race would improve.

    Quote Originally Posted by Vitamin View Post
    I thought the premise of this thread was that human equivalent AI was attainable?
    Not at all. That's a whole different topic. I don't think most human beings are adult enough to accept thinking machines that are actual peers.

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

  43. #43

    Re: A robotic economy

    Quote Originally Posted by Kulindahr View Post
    Boredom --> violence --> destruction of robots?

    Possibly. But that would also depend on how aware people are of how important the robots are -- many people, I'd think, would get angry at those trying to destroy robots, and stop them.

    In a way it could be evolution in action: people with enough self-motivation to avoid boredom or at least know what to do with it would tend to triumph; people whose only reaction to boredom is violence (or even apathy) wouldn't. The race would improve.
    It seems you and I have different ideas if what would happen in a world without labor. You assume the best of people would triumph, and creativity would flourish. I just see a majority with no creative ability no longer being told what to do, thus turning on the system. Numbers tend to rule the survival of the fittest game.

    I would like to assume the best of humanity, but I rarely find it anywhere. It's hard for me to believe in it.



    Not at all. That's a whole different topic. I don't think most human beings are adult enough to accept thinking machines that are actual peers.
    Interesting. So you're arguing that its not that is nessacirly impossible to create a machine that could be creative, it's just that people wouldnt accept it?
    Last edited by Vitamin; December 1st, 2013 at 05:29 PM.

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    Re: A robotic economy

    Quote Originally Posted by Vitamin View Post
    It seems you and I have different ideas if what would happen in a world without labor. You assume the best of people would triumph, and creativity would flourish. I just see a majority with no creative ability no longer being told what to do, thus turning on the system. Numbers tend to rule the survival of the fittest game.

    I would like to assume the best of humanity, but I rarely find it anywhere. It's hard for me to believe in it.
    I don't assume anything. If GOP policies get followed as at present, we'll end up with a few people owning everything and treating the rest like slaves. If the slaves tried to revolt, the robot war machines would go out and turn them to fertilizer.

    As for the numbers game... no -- if numbers prevailed, there never would have been feudal societies.

    Quote Originally Posted by Vitamin View Post
    Interesting. So you're arguing that its not that is nessacirly impossible to create a machine that could be creative, it's just that people wouldnt accept it?
    I haven't even ventured on that topic, except what I said above. The phenomenon of fear of the different could kick in with a vengeance. If you think people hate immigrants because they supposedly steal "real Americans'" jobs, that would be nothing compared to hate for robots -- whether they can think like us or not.

    Really the only sensible route I see is a form of Georgism: we declare that everyone owns all raw materials jointly, and charge enough royalties on the use thereof that everyone has enough for basic necessities; then people with foresight and cash start manufacturing robots that also belong to everyone jointly.

    To avoid violence I say we have LOTS of amusement parks.... And of course sports won't go away, or any of the arts. Hopefully people would start to appreciate others not for what they owned, because most things would have become free, but because of what they could do.
    Not that I'd count on it.

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

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    Re: A robotic economy

    Quote Originally Posted by TX-Beau View Post
    I saw this B science fiction movie once in which a guy had the perfect robotic sex toy he was in love with, and when she broke down, he had to run the gauntlet of Mad Max terrain to get a replacement.
    This one?



    Quote Originally Posted by TX-Beau View Post
    SO robot sex slaves are going to put wives and girlfriends out of business. Gay men are pretty much safe as so many of us are ROBOTS ANYWAY!!!!! (grin)
    I think you have your science fiction concepts confused. You mean clones, surely?


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    Re: A robotic economy

    Rieder: Bezos' drone delivery publicity coup

    Damn Kuli are you the mouse in Bezos pocket? lol

    If this ever received authorization to work can you imagine the workers no longer required? FedEX, UPS, Pizza delivery, and on and on....

    Can you imagine a pizza delivery ten minutes after calling with the drone baking the sucker while it flies to your 79th story window to deliver your hot and fresh pie? Love the guys imagination but I agree with the USA Today piece that insists it was simply a publicity stunt just prior to Cyber Monday to give Amazon a boost.
    Everyone can be great, because everyone can serve.
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    Re: A robotic economy

    Quote Originally Posted by JayHawk View Post
    Rieder: Bezos' drone delivery publicity coup

    Damn Kuli are you the mouse in Bezos pocket? lol

    If this ever received authorization to work can you imagine the workers no longer required? FedEX, UPS, Pizza delivery, and on and on....

    Can you imagine a pizza delivery ten minutes after calling with the drone baking the sucker while it flies to your 79th story window to deliver your hot and fresh pie? Love the guys imagination but I agree with the USA Today piece that insists it was simply a publicity stunt just prior to Cyber Monday to give Amazon a boost.
    LOL

    Bezos' idea is an obvious one, given what people have been doing with quad-copters.

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

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    Re: A robotic economy

    Robots do not have enough determinism to be able to support a completely human less environment in industry. To many variables can change they cannot adjust for with no human intervention. Then in a something like a production facility there are so many variables that change continuously they could not coordinate anything. Even though plants can be full of robots they are not all connected. They are on their own independent networks.

    Now there are simple sub networks between the various robot networks to have a sort of intermittent communication to indicate things like part location. But not all the robots in the facility can talk to each other to work together, the network would be a nightmare and quite honestly would most likely never work, plants are harsh environments with a lot of electrical 'noise' that like to disrupt communication systems. Then when these communication issues occur robots can't fix these issues.

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    Re: A robotic economy

    Quote Originally Posted by vater292 View Post
    Robots do not have enough determinism to be able to support a completely human less environment in industry. To many variables can change they cannot adjust for with no human intervention. Then in a something like a production facility there are so many variables that change continuously they could not coordinate anything. Even though plants can be full of robots they are not all connected. They are on their own independent networks.

    Now there are simple sub networks between the various robot networks to have a sort of intermittent communication to indicate things like part location. But not all the robots in the facility can talk to each other to work together, the network would be a nightmare and quite honestly would most likely never work, plants are harsh environments with a lot of electrical 'noise' that like to disrupt communication systems. Then when these communication issues occur robots can't fix these issues.
    It would be a fairly simple task to build in the sort of communications redundancy to allow robots to manage most things that can happen in a production line. Besides that, it's already been demonstrated that robots don't actually have to be able to communicate with each other in any more complex way than ants do to get things done (in fact their cooperation with almost no communication was achieved by modeling from ants)-- they just have to know what the task is.

    Furthermore, systems coordination in production facilities has already progressed in many places beyond what humans can manage -- it gets run by computers, and humans just get told the information. That's why there are facilities where there's just one human per hundreds or more robots, and the human mostly gets bored because things run smoothly. Conditions are managed so well that there just aren't many variables to worry about.

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

  50. #50
    Rambunctiously Pugnacious JayHawk's Avatar
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    Re: A robotic economy

    Next up.... Robo-COP.... no really

    http://www.nytimes.com/2013/12/03/sc...eels.html?_r=0

    I love it Kuli mentions a subject, next thing ya know it is ever other story
    Everyone can be great, because everyone can serve.
    ~ Martin Luther King, Jr.


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