National Journal's Ronald Brownstein—an excellent and informed political analyst who was among the pundits on ABC News' 2012 Election Night coverage—estimates that the brand-new shutdown by the current, compared to the 1990s', Republican congressional party may not be as harmful to their electoral prospects as they were when Newt Gingrich was speaker. Now, one item to consider is this: that winter of 1995/1996 was a segue into a presidential election year. That is where there is 100-percent potential of turning out a so-called balanced electorate. Next year's 2014 is a midterm which, like so many midterms, isn't expected to have 100 percent of those who voted in the 2012 U.S. presidential election. Good example of comparison is this: Look at U.S. House elections for numbers of votes cast nationally. Compare those with midterms and presidential cycles. One finds between 26 to 30 percent of those who voted for U.S. House in a presidential year did not likewise do so in a midterm year. This report is still pretty interesting because it speaks to a rigged system. —CoolBlue71
Republicans More Insulated Against Backlash
By Ronald Brownstein
Oct. 1, 2013 | http://www.nationaljournal.com/daily...ryTiles_normal
Resolving the serial showdowns over the federal budget and debt ceiling may be more difficult now than during the last shutdown under Bill Clinton and Newt Gingrich because so many more House Republicans today represent safely GOP districts, a National Journal analysis has found.
This suggests that even if a public backlash develops against a shutdown or potential government default, Republican members may be far more insulated against those gales than their counterparts were during the two shutdowns in the winter of 1995 and 1996. Today's GOP legislators, for the same reason, also may be less sensitive to shifts in public attitudes that could threaten their party's national image or standing in more closely contested parts of the country.