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  1. #1
    JUB Addict CoolBlue71's Avatar
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    Republicans More Insulated Against Backlash

    National Journal's Ronald Brownstein—an excellent and informed political analyst who was among the pundits on ABC News' 2012 Election Night coverage—estimates that the brand-new shutdown by the current, compared to the 1990s', Republican congressional party may not be as harmful to their electoral prospects as they were when Newt Gingrich was speaker. Now, one item to consider is this: that winter of 1995/1996 was a segue into a presidential election year. That is where there is 100-percent potential of turning out a so-called balanced electorate. Next year's 2014 is a midterm which, like so many midterms, isn't expected to have 100 percent of those who voted in the 2012 U.S. presidential election. Good example of comparison is this: Look at U.S. House elections for numbers of votes cast nationally. Compare those with midterms and presidential cycles. One finds between 26 to 30 percent of those who voted for U.S. House in a presidential year did not likewise do so in a midterm year. This report is still pretty interesting because it speaks to a rigged system. —CoolBlue71



    Republicans More Insulated Against Backlash

    By Ronald Brownstein
    Oct. 1, 2013 | http://www.nationaljournal.com/daily...ryTiles_normal

    Resolving the serial showdowns over the federal budget and debt ceiling may be more difficult now than during the last shutdown under Bill Clinton and Newt Gingrich because so many more House Republicans today represent safely GOP districts, a National Journal analysis has found.

    This suggests that even if a public backlash develops against a shutdown or potential government default, Republican members may be far more insulated against those gales than their counterparts were during the two shutdowns in the winter of 1995 and 1996. Today's GOP legislators, for the same reason, also may be less sensitive to shifts in public attitudes that could threaten their party's national image or standing in more closely contested parts of the country.

  2. #2
    JUB Addict evanrick's Avatar
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    Re: Republicans More Insulated Against Backlash

    The 1% will continue to terrorize Americans with the help of the GOP until the GOP gerrymandering and money bought politics are ended.
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  3. #3
    JUB Addict maxpowr9's Avatar
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    Re: Republicans More Insulated Against Backlash

    That's mostly due to the gerrymandering of the 2010 census which favored the GOP. It's the same reason nobody takes the National Journal seriously: they don't see the forest for the trees.

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    Re: Republicans More Insulated Against Backlash

    Quote Originally Posted by CoolBlue71 View Post
    ...the brand-new shutdown by the current, compared to the 1990s', Republican congressional party may not be as harmful to their electoral prospects as they were when Newt Gingrich was speaker. Now, one item to consider is this: that winter of 1995/1996 was a segue into a presidential election year. That is where there is 100-percent potential of turning out a so-called balanced electorate. Next year's 2014 is a midterm...
    Yeah, this occurred to me, also.

    I expect this is one of the reasons Republicans have been willing to risk the shutdown. There is a reasonable chance that it will benefit them. This is not an election year, so it will be more than a year before any representatives will have to face the voters. By then, the voters will have forgotten about this. Moreover, since 2014 is not a presidential election year, not that much attention will be focused on the issue. Also, such is the effect of gerrymandering that only 7% of current Republicans in the House represent districts which voted for Obama in 2012. In 1996, 33% of Republican representatives lived in districts which had voted for Clinton.

    Meanwhile, the drama has fired up the Republican base and caused money to flow into Republican re-election campaigns.

    While poll after poll has shown that more people blame Republicans for the shutdown than any other group, Republicans may get away without paying a significant price for their behavior. And they may even benefit from it.
    Last edited by T-Rexx; October 1st, 2013 at 04:16 PM.

  5. #5

    Re: Republicans More Insulated Against Backlash

    Look back at the last 4 years of the Clinton Administration after the shutdown. Amazing things got done those 4 years, the President and Congress worked together.

    Obama needs to bring his toys back to the sandpile and play with everyone.

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    JUB Addict T-Rexx's Avatar
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    Re: Republicans More Insulated Against Backlash

    ^ What toys? What sand pile?

    This is not a situation in which it is appropriate for the president to negotiate.

    If the Republicans want to repeal Obamacare, they can always pass a bill through the House and Senate, and get it signed by the president. If they are unable to do this, then their position represents a minority viewpoint which does not deserve to be realized.

    Democracies operate by majority rule. Not by terrorist groups putting a gun to the head of legislators when they can't get their bills passed. Negotiating by the president in this context would set a dangerous precedent whereby no bill can ever really get "passed" by the Congress. Every bill will be subject to recall by a minority when the next budget comes up.
    Last edited by T-Rexx; October 1st, 2013 at 04:26 PM.

  7. #7
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    Re: Republicans More Insulated Against Backlash

    A balanced and well-thought article; we are in uncharted water here. Thank you.

    Rep. David Price, D-N.C., a former political scientist, says that the proliferation of safe GOP seats means that even if Republicans receive most of the blame for a shutdown, as polls suggest, "in these individual districts maybe that's no problem; maybe it's actually to their electoral benefit." If there is an electoral cost for the GOP, he argues, it will come through alienating the swing voters they need to win statewide elections in closely contested states like North Carolina. "This may be just fine for individual Republicans in gerrymandered seats, but it isn't fine at all for [the party's] national ambitions," he said. Speaking of his home state of North Carolina, he added: "This certainly enhances the ability to flip [the ] governorship in 2016, and the same thing applies to the presidency."

    But veteran GOP pollster Glen Bolger, in a blog post Monday, warned that his party may face the opposite risk of demobilizing their core supporters if they concede without exacting any concessions from Obama. "Republicans have to get something tangible from this, or the base will be devastated going into 2014," Bolger wrote. "That does not mean no compromise--last I looked, the Democrats control two-thirds of the power in D.C., so the GOP is not going to get everything it wants. But neither should the Democrats expect to get everything they want either."
    Source: OP's article

  8. #8
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    Re: Republicans More Insulated Against Backlash

    Palbert that is exactly where this will have an effect on the terror party. Weakening the hold on the house and losing some state races will continue their decline. What is sad is that almost every republican has already stated this will end up not touching the ACA. So in essence Republicans are shitting on a very large segment of America for no end game.
    Everyone can be great, because everyone can serve.
    ~ Martin Luther King, Jr.


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    Re: Republicans More Insulated Against Backlash

    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Springer View Post
    Obama needs to bring his toys back to the sandpile and play with everyone.
    That was his mistake in the first place: he shared his toys, and the House GOP took them and trashed them. He'd be better off leveling the sandpile and paving it.

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

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    Re: Republicans More Insulated Against Backlash

    The only real interesting impact at the state-level the shutdown will have is Virginia and not NC. Northern VA has LOADS of federal employees that work in DC that are heavily Democrat and if they are not working for a long period due to the shutdown, it will pretty much sink any chance the GOP has at winning the Governorship of VA as they will vote in droves to keep the GOP out of their state.

  11. #11
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    Re: Republicans More Insulated Against Backlash

    As Rachel Maddow pointed out on her show tonight,there are Republicans in districts who only face primary threats and thus they wont' face any cosquences of this.
    At this point though,Obama shouldn't discuss anything with them. Enough is enough.

  12. #12
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    Re: Republicans More Insulated Against Backlash

    Quote Originally Posted by Ninja108 View Post
    As Rachel Maddow pointed out on her show tonight,there are Republicans in districts who only face primary threats and thus they wont' face any cosquences of this.
    At this point though,Obama shouldn't discuss anything with them. Enough is enough.
    Obama could pull an LBJ and threaten to campaign for those Republicans' primary opponents.

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

  13. #13
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    Re: Republicans More Insulated Against Backlash

    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Springer View Post
    Obama needs to bring his toys back to the sandpile and play with everyone.
    He did, and we got the Sequester, which was one of the worst Republican brokered policies of the 21st century.
    #439th oldest member on JUB.

  14. #14

    Re: Republicans More Insulated Against Backlash

    Obama and Reid still refuse to talk or negotiate.

    We have a leaderless White House.

  15. #15
    ecce homo rareboy's Avatar
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    Re: Republicans More Insulated Against Backlash

    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Springer View Post
    Look back at the last 4 years of the Clinton Administration after the shutdown. Amazing things got done those 4 years, the President and Congress worked together.

    Obama needs to bring his toys back to the sandpile and play with everyone.
    This is one of those awesomely ill informed remarks that we're hearing from the T-bag Institute these days. It shows what kind of a bubble you live in. At the time of the Clinton presidency, there was not a cabal of people elected to Congress who were there with the openly stated goal to destroy Washington. Although, look at how the GOP squandered their time with Clinton.

    In the case of this Bill...the GOP has got nothing. The Bill was passed into law, was verified by the Supreme Court and is now in effect. Face it. They lost.

    To wreck the economy and think nothing of the misery they are causing is beyond reckless...it demonstrates the staggering malevolent ignorance and arrogance of these jumped up bible thumpers and ex-car salesmen who land in Congress and think that somehow they have the right to create one crisis after another...enough is enough. I think the whole world is tired of the ridiculous performance in the House and Senate and the never-ending electioneering. It makes the US look weak and frankly, venal.

    I could be totally wrong, but I have to think that this latest attempt to get Obama to cave in and give even more away is going to fail and backfire on the reactionary terrorists who are apparently now the leadership and voices in the GOP.

  16. #16
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    Re: Republicans More Insulated Against Backlash

    That we are capable only of being what we are, remains our unforgivable sin.
    - Gene Wolfe

  17. #17
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    Re: Republicans More Insulated Against Backlash

    Quote Originally Posted by Rolyo85 View Post
    I'm not sure that means testing belongs in the Republican column.

    Other than that, it's a great illustration of what today's GOP means by "negotiating": you give us what we want, and we don't give anything (in fact we won't even do our jobs).

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

  18. #18
    CE&P Secret Police xbuzzerx's Avatar
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    Re: Republicans More Insulated Against Backlash

    Quote Originally Posted by Kulindahr View Post
    I'm not sure that means testing belongs in the Republican column.

    Other than that, it's a great illustration of what today's GOP means by "negotiating": you give us what we want, and we don't give anything (in fact we won't even do our jobs).
    That does seem to be how they view the proper enaction of American democracy today: when we're in power we do whatever we want, when we're not in power we demand all bills and policies reflect our platform or we filibuster and shutdown budget and government.

  19. #19

    Re: Republicans More Insulated Against Backlash

    Quote Originally Posted by Rolyo85 View Post
    Looks good to me.

  20. #20
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    Re: Republicans More Insulated Against Backlash

    ^ And by your own admission, you prove your own point wrong, Jack. That's not how government nor compromise works. One party does not get to dictate 100% of their own agenda and give the other party, who has control of the Senate and the White House, nothing. They also don't shut down the federal government and default on our national debt if they don't get 100% of what they want.
    #439th oldest member on JUB.

  21. #21
    JUB Addict Ninja108's Avatar
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    Re: Republicans More Insulated Against Backlash

    Bingo,the Republicans want everything they ran on with nothing in return.

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