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  1. #1
    JUB Addict CoolBlue71's Avatar
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    The Presidency's Political Price

    An interesting historical analysis follows about incumbent presidents—following World War II—and their congressional levels of support (and decline). That's from the first to the last day of a presidency. It helps reinforce any belief that power can be both vulnerable and tenable. —CoolBlue71


    The Presidency’s Political Price


    By Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley, U.Va. Center for Politics
    Aug. 1, 2013 | http://www.centerforpolitics.org/cry...litical-price/

    Is politics a zero-sum game?


    Imagine, for a moment, if Sen. John McCain (R) had somehow won the presidency in 2008. How might the country be different?


    We would not have the Affordable Care Act. Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan would not be on the Supreme Court. And the stimulus passed at the outset of McCain’s presidency would probably have been considerably different from the one passed under President Obama.


    Oh, and there’s this: Democrats would probably still control the House, and they’d certainly still control the Senate.


    That’s because the president’s party almost invariably pays a price for holding the White House, a price that can be measured in the loss of House representatives, senators, governors and state legislators.



    Take a look at Chart 1, which examines the electoral history of the 12 presidents who served after World War II. Generally speaking, presidents left office with their parties having smaller House and Senate caucuses than when they arrived, and also fewer governors and state legislative chambers — often dramatically fewer.


    All in all, these 12 postwar presidents lost an average of 30 U.S. House seats; six senators; eight governors; total control of six state legislatures; and about 360 state legislative seats over their tenures.
    That includes Obama’s [thus far from 2010] losses, even though his final tally remains to be totaled [pending outcomes from 2014 and 2016].

  2. #2
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    Kulindahr's Avatar
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    Re: The Presidency's Political Price

    I like this question:

    Now, explain to us again why so many senators, members of the House, governors and state legislators work hard to elect their party’s presidential nominee?

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

  3. #3
    JUB Addict CoolBlue71's Avatar
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    Re: The Presidency's Political Price

    Quote Originally Posted by Kulindahr View Post
    I like this question: "Now, explain to us again why so many senators, members of the House, governors and state legislators work hard to elect their party’s presidential nominee?"
    Reason is because both levels—U.S. House and U.S. Senate—members tend to historically benefit from their party prevailing at the top of the ticket. It has to do with a down-ticket impact and counting on most voters to be partisans.

    In recent presidential elections, between 66 and 80 percent of the states which also had scheduled U.S. Senate elections saw the same party carry at both levels—president and senator.

    This was the case in 2012. The only states which produced different-party outcomes were: Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, and West Virginia having carried for the Republican presidential and Democratic senatorial nominee; Nevada having carried for the incumbent Democratic president and incumbent Republican senator.

    There were 27 remaining states which voted for the same party to carry for both the presidency and senate—for 81 percent in match.
    Last edited by CoolBlue71; August 13th, 2013 at 10:17 AM.

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