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  1. #1
    Banned chance1's Avatar
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    Jul 2005

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    Jobless Claims Are Nearly Back To Pre-Recession Levels, But Unemployment Isn't Close

    Interesting piece - perhaps a bit past my pay grade - trying to understand it

    this might be like watching Chris Hayes - very unsatisfying

    basic premise is that people are not being fired anymore ...... but they're not being hired

    The job market is one of the few economic indicators that has failed to get back to pre-recession levels. Stock prices, GDP, corporate profits and other indicators have already erased the memory of the Great Recession and gone on to record highs (at least before you adjust for inflation).
    there's good news

    In what seems to be a paradox, the job market hasn't even kept up with one of its most closely watched indicators: weekly jobless claims. New claims for unemployment benefits have tumbled to just about 340,000 per week, the lowest since early 2008, when the recession had just begun. That is often taken as a good sign for the job market, and it does mean employers aren't laying people off so much any more -- a message confirmed by the government's monthly Job Openings And Labor Turnover Survey.
    but then the perplexing ...... and bad news

    But here's where it gets problematic: Typically, jobless claims and the number of unemployed people in the economy have a very tight relationship. As you can see in the chart above, they have tracked each other nearly perfectly, as far back as 1967, when the Labor Department's claims records begin.
    As you can also see in the chart, since the latest recession (the gray bars on the chart mark recessions), the tight relationship between claims and unemployment has come unmoored. The number of unemployed people has remained stubbornly high, even as jobless claims have tumbled.
    so .......

    This is as clear a sign as any of just how grim the labor market remains, despite Friday's decent jobs report. Though you will hear lots of theories that this lack of hiring is due to a lack of skilled workers, or Obamacare, or some such, the simple fact is that employers don't see enough demand for their goods and services to justify ramping up hiring, notes Shierholz.

  2. #2
    JUB Addict Sausy's Avatar
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    Jun 2005
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    Re: Jobless Claims Are Nearly Back To Pre-Recession Levels, But Unemployment Isn't Close

    Basically the last point makes it clear overall. We are headed for a stagnant period unless things dramatically worsen or improve especially in Europe. Limited growth and few signs of a ramping up of productiveness.
    unofficial official mini meet Friday- Saturday April 11-12, 2014

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