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  1. #1
    JUB Addict Ninja108's Avatar
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    2014 Senate Races and what it means for the LGBT community

    2014 is a little ways off but it's not too early to look at next year and what it could mean for us.
    With so many Red States Democrats facing tough reelections and some retiring next year,there is a good chance the Senate could be returned to the Republicans,a party that has made it clear they will try and delay our rights as long as possible. One hope they will nominate fringe candidates that will end up losing for them again,otherwise it could be a tough road the next couple of years.
    One should also mention the South Dakota Senate Race for Democrats. There are two names floating around out there,Brendan Johnson,Tim Johnson's son and Stephanie Herseth Sandlin.
    Don't know how many Jubbers there are in South Dakota but I would be wary of putting any support behind Sandlin. She was one of 33 (34) Democrats to vote for the very anti-gay Federal Marriage Amendment act,so she is no ally of ours.

    Long ways to go but there is no mistake the tide is turning for us,the question will be how fast it will the next couple of years.

  2. #2
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    Re: 2014 Senate Races and what it means for the LGBT community

    Thanks for the update Ninja. You and JockBoy are great at keeping abreast of such things.

  3. #3
    JUB Addict Ninja108's Avatar
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    Re: 2014 Senate Races and what it means for the LGBT community

    Quote Originally Posted by palbert View Post
    Thanks for the update Ninja. You and JockBoy are great at keeping abreast of such things.
    Thanks,def follow politics more then I use to. One of the prouder moments of the past few years locally was helping get rid of our tea party bigot Ann Marie Buerkle.
    Also can't say enough about Kirsten Gillibrand. She helped spearhead the movement to end DADT and has been one of our biggest allies. She's been a far greater ally to us then the guy who originally wanted to fill out the rest of Hilary's senate term,Harold Ford Jr. He was a bigot when he almost won the Senate Race in TN in 06 and is still one IMO.

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    Re: 2014 Senate Races and what it means for the LGBT community

    The entire country better hope the Senate is not returned to the republican party.

  5. #5

    Re: 2014 Senate Races and what it means for the LGBT community

    Republicans are well aware they can't win in an honest election because they've gone extremist. The republicans will try their hardest through voter suppression and gerrymandering to maintain the house and take over the senate. However they tried their best in the 2012 elections and were positive they would win but look at what happened.

    If, by some chance, they are successful in winning the senate through fraud, they'll try to do as much damage as they can. Gay marriage, the right to choose, environmental protections, labor protections, are all on their hit list. The country will be set back a hundred years.

  6. #6
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    Re: 2014 Senate Races and what it means for the LGBT community

    Well they can't gerrymander the Senate because senators are elected at large, which is probably why it hasn't turned Republican yet, but such a change is inevitable. The Senate doesn't belong to the Democratic party, and it doesn't stay one party or the other forever. The inevitable GOP Congress will pour cold water on all gay rights legislation, so we need to haul ass now. Fortunately a GOP Congress couldn't do much damage to us so long as Obama is president.

    Priority number one in Congress right now should be discrimination. We need to get ENDA passed this year and attach it to a must-pass bill in the House. I think the votes are there to do it.

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    Re: 2014 Senate Races and what it means for the LGBT community

    Is there any place left to gerrymander further in the US? It has almost reached the point of String Theory as far as I can make out.

  8. #8

    Re: 2014 Senate Races and what it means for the LGBT community

    Have the repugs decided to use "the gays" as a political football in 2014 like they've done in the past? It wouldn't be a smart move if they're trying to attract younger voters. But I don't think the party of rich old white men changes easily.

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    Re: 2014 Senate Races and what it means for the LGBT community

    Quote Originally Posted by CowboyBob View Post
    Have the repugs decided to use "the gays" as a political football in 2014 like they've done in the past? It wouldn't be a smart move if they're trying to attract younger voters. But I don't think the party of rich old white men changes easily.
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    Re: 2014 Senate Races and what it means for the LGBT community

    Quote Originally Posted by CowboyBob View Post
    Have the repugs decided to use "the gays" as a political football in 2014 like they've done in the past? It wouldn't be a smart move if they're trying to attract younger voters. But I don't think the party of rich old white men changes easily.
    Only in deep Red States. There are some groups pushing for legalization of gay marriage in Minnesota and elsewhere. They know this is a losing issue for them and they want it to be over with.

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    Re: 2014 Senate Races and what it means for the LGBT community

    The Democrats are facing some tough headwinds coming into 2014 atm. I think any "gay" talk is DoA for republicans and they know that.

  12. #12
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    Re: 2014 Senate Races and what it means for the LGBT community

    Quote Originally Posted by Ninja108 View Post
    Only in deep Red States. There are some groups pushing for legalization of gay marriage in Minnesota and elsewhere. They know this is a losing issue for them and they want it to be over with.
    American Unity PAC. They have spent a lot of money on lobbying so far with mixed results.

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    Re: 2014 Senate Races and what it means for the LGBT community

    Will add one more thing about Kirsten Gillibrand. Her record on gays rights wasn't as friendly when she was in congress but I do believe it's because she represented one of the most conservative districts in NY.
    She has def been an ally since then,far more then the slimy Harold Ford Jr,who voted for the Federal Marriage Amendment would have been.
    I've met him and he still is a Blue Dog Democrat who thinks we should be second class citizens,despite what he says otherwise. If he had got elected,would have been no different then Bob Corker or Lamar Alexander. It's why in SD,I hope Herseth Sandlin doesn't get the nomination. She will be no better in regards to gay rights then a Republican would be.

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    Re: 2014 Senate Races and what it means for the LGBT community

    Great insights! Thanks for the updates, the 2014 election will be a big one for sure.
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    Re: 2014 Senate Races and what it means for the LGBT community

    It will be..and there is a very good chance Democrats will lose control. But then again,it depends on how many crazies get nominted. If you look at what the Republicans legislatures in Indiana and Missouri have done the past year,you'll realize they aren't blue at all and Akin and Mourdock were too much for them.

  16. #16
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    Re: 2014 Senate Races and what it means for the LGBT community

    A way to compare midterm with presidential election years is to note the total votes cast, nationwide, for U.S. House of Representatives. One finds that a good 26 to 30 percent of those voting for House in presidential do not participate to vote for House in midterm election years.

    So what this means is that a midterm election which has better turnout for one party over the other magnifies the prevailing margins. It's why then-U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum was unseated by nearly 18 points, by Bob Casey in Pennsylvania, in the Democratic wave of 2006. It's why then-U.S. Sen. Blanche Lincoln was unseated by about 21 points, by John Boozman in Arkansas, in the Republican wave of 2010.

    Here's the question we can't answer just yet: Is 2014 going to be a wave election?

    The Republicans are going to need it to be. That's because, with the Senate, they will apparently have 45 going into that cycle with a need to pick up six Democratic-held seats.

    That number is the same as the position with the Democrats heading into 2006. What did it for the Democrats was George W. Bush and his war in Iraq.

    What will be doing that for the Republicans going against Barack Obama and his … in 2014?


    Estimated route for the 2014 Republicans, to duplicate the numbers experienced by the 2006 Democrats, going from 45 to 51 would be as follows:

    All Republican held seats resulting in re-election or renewals (meaning those "Open"), to higher victory margins, plus 2008 D to 2014 R pickups in…
    • Alaska (Mark Begich, first elected in 2008 when he unseated Ted Stevens)
    • Arkansas (Mark Pryor, first elected in 2002 when he unseated Tim Hutchinson)
    • Louisiana (Mary Landrieu, first elected in 1996)
    • Montana (Open)
    • South Dakota (Open)
    • West Virginia (Open)


    The Rs would also want to flip these…
    • Colorado (Mark Udall; the Rs haven't won a statewide election in Colo. since 2004)
    • Iowa (Open; in a bellwether state that typically has one R and one D senator)
    • New Hampshire (Jeanne Shaheen; she is her state's first-ever female governor and senator)
    • North Carolina (Kay Hagan; in a changing Top-10 populous state that is, at the presidential level, trending away from Strong Republican to Competitive to possible Bellwether)
    • Virginia (Mark Warner; he is a former, popular governor highly likely to win re-election)


    Why?

    The Republicans will want to flip the White House in 2016 which would, based on historical voting pattern, guarantee their holding the Senate. This is part of the reason why Hillary Clinton is being targeted with bogus Benghazi brouhaha. If she, or any Democrat, prevails in 2016 … Senate gains for Team Blue.

    Some of the potential (2010 R to 2016 D)…
    • Florida (Marco Rubio; it's a bellwether presidential state that, if the Democrats win the presidency for a third consecutive cycle in 2016, can reap down-ticket benefits)
    • New Hampshire (Kelly Ayotte; due to a now-unpopular senator, elected in the Republican midterm wave, in a state that, when a Democrat wins the presidency, definitely carries for Team Blue)
    • North Carolina (Richard Burr; with an incumbent GOP senator whose two elections were benefited by the national strength of Rs: 2004 and 2010)
    • Ohio (Rob Portman; the nation's leading bellwether state has, since 1992, voted for the same parties for both President and Senate in elections where both were on schedule)
    • Pennsylvania (Pat Toomey; in this presidential base state for the Ds, the incumbent R did not landslide his opponent in a year the senator's party rode the midterm wave)
    • Wisconsin (Ron Johnson; the state hasn't voted Republican in a presidential race since 1984, the year Herb Kohl was first elected to the U.S. Senate and Michael Dukakis won Wis. in a Democratic pickup as George Bush was the Republicans' third consecutive presidential victory. From that point going forward, all election years for both President and Senate resulted in the Democratic party carrying both)



    Notice that there is some method to the madness. I remember when the healthcare bill was completed in 2010. George W. Bush speechwriter David Frum went on MSNBC and said it was definitely a defeat against the Republican party. And he stated that a 1994-style landslide, for the 2010 Republicans, wouldn't mean shit because "congressional majorities come and go." Of course he turned out to be correct: The Democrats had significant gains in the House in 1982, and that didn't stop Ronald Reagan from getting re-elected in 1984. The Republicans won only both houses of Congress in 1994, and that didn't stop Bill Clinton from getting re-elected in 1996. And we know the Republicans winning over majority control of the House did not produce an ability for them to unseat Barack Obama from getting re-elected in 2012. The two types of elections — presidential and midterm — are different in nature. So, this is my way of saying, that 2014 will be whatever it will (based on some narratives), and if we're getting a third consecutive presidential victory with the Democratic party in 2016 (another sign of a realigning presidential period favoring Team Blue), so much for those Republican gains.
    Last edited by opinterph; May 12th, 2013 at 07:19 PM. Reason: late edit by OP

  17. #17
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    Re: 2014 Senate Races and what it means for the LGBT community

    INdeed,it will be intresting to see.

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    Re: 2014 Senate Races and what it means for the LGBT community

    This thread seems more than a bit self-serving. There are more important things for this country to deal with than so-called 'gay issues'. Only a selfish prick would vote on the basis of what's in it for himself.

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    Quote Originally Posted by HenryReardon View Post
    This thread seems more than a bit self-serving. There are more important things for this country to deal with than so-called 'gay issues'. Only a selfish prick would vote on the basis of what's in it for himself.
    Says the guy from the side of "I don't give a fuck about equal rights, I vote with my checkbook". Embarrassing.

    When will the desperate right wingers get it through their thick skulls that EVEN if you don't care enough to vote for those who support gay rights, it is NOT acceptable to vote for those who are FIGHTING them?
    That we are capable only of being what we are, remains our unforgivable sin.
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    Re: 2014 Senate Races and what it means for the LGBT community

    Quote Originally Posted by Rolyo85 View Post
    Says the guy from the side of "I don't give a fuck about equal rights, I vote with my checkbook". Embarrassing.

    ?
    We already have equal rights. The same rights as every other citizen.
    And, just like any straight person, we have the right to marry a person of
    the opposite sex.

    It bears repeating, if your vote is cast, based solely upon what's in it for you, they you are a selfish prick. And no better than the people who cast their votes solely based on a candidate's stance on abortion.

  21. #21

    Re: 2014 Senate Races and what it means for the LGBT community

    Quote Originally Posted by HenryReardon View Post
    We already have equal rights. The same rights as every other citizen.
    And, just like any straight person, we have the right to marry a person of
    the opposite sex.

    It bears repeating, if your vote is cast, based solely upon what's in it for you, they you are a selfish prick. And no better than the people who cast their votes solely based on a candidate's stance on abortion.
    News flash Henry. Gays aren't interested in marrying a person of the opposite sex. Those people are called "straight".

    Anything else you need assistance on?

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    Re: 2014 Senate Races and what it means for the LGBT community

    Quote Originally Posted by CowboyBob View Post
    News flash Henry. Gays aren't interested in marrying a person of the opposite sex. Those people are called "straight".

    ?
    News flash for you - you're being disingenuous.

  23. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by HenryReardon View Post

    We already have equal rights. The same rights as every other citizen.
    And, just like any straight person, we have the right to marry a person of
    the opposite sex.

    It bears repeating, if your vote is cast, based solely upon what's in it for you, they you are a selfish prick. And no better than the people who cast their votes solely based on a candidate's stance on abortion.
    This type of attitude is the reason why people can still openly preach discrimination and abuse of LGBTs. It's shameful and people who support this have no dignity, nor respect for others'.
    That we are capable only of being what we are, remains our unforgivable sin.
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    Re: 2014 Senate Races and what it means for the LGBT community

    Quote Originally Posted by HenryReardon View Post
    We already have equal rights. The same rights as every other citizen.
    And, just like any straight person, we have the right to marry a person of
    the opposite sex.

    It bears repeating, if your vote is cast, based solely upon what's in it for you, they you are a selfish prick. And no better than the people who cast their votes solely based on a candidate's stance on abortion.
    How many times can you keep dragging out that tired piece of crap? It is the thing that tells us who is really a homo on here and who isn't.

    It is the freedom to marry the person that you love. Americans in many states do not have that equal right yet.

    Using some piece of garbage logic that you and a whole bunch of other fundie trolls think is clever and cute doesn't change this.

    At the end of the day...if you really are a cock sucker....have you no sense of shame about the stupid arguments you make on this issue? From where I sit, you should have.

  25. #25
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    Re: 2014 Senate Races and what it means for the LGBT community

    Henry Reardon wrote:
    We already have equal rights. The same rights as every other citizen.
    And, just like any straight person, we have the right to marry a person of
    the opposite sex.
    In Just Us Boys postings dating back to 2009, Henry Reardon didn't like Barack Obama because, so I thought, it had to do with him being revealed as corporatist. Then I wondered if Henry Reardon didn't like Barack Obama because it was he, and not Hillary Clinton, who won the 2008 Democratic nomination and the presidency of the United States. With that quote, at No. 26, it sounds like Henry Reardon is existing in a world all his own. And that's Henry Reardon's choice. Not mine. But I don't think it's the same choice of many other LGBT persons who are wanting marriage equalty.

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    Re: 2014 Senate Races and what it means for the LGBT community

    There have been NO good choices in any presidential election for many, many years. That is a fact.

    Why are you and the other marriage-minded idiots so ashamed of being gay. Are you unable to introduce your partner as your partner.
    Do you think that calling another man your 'husband' will confer some sort of societal good-housekeeping seal of approval on you?
    What nonsense.

    Don't be afraid to admit you're gay.
    You don't need to follow the heterosexual norm.

    Elton John said much the same thing after his very public commitment ceremony and was excoriated for it.

  27. #27
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    Re: 2014 Senate Races and what it means for the LGBT community

    I'm sure it's entirely safe for me to assume this hasn't been mentioned in the thread yet, because it's hardly ever talked about, even in Presidential elections.

    Who is elected to the Senate in 2014 also affects the future of Supreme Court appointments which Obama may name during the last two years of his Presidency. (Or, more precisely, the final two years extending NEARLY to the end of his Presidency, because the **2016** Congress will convene earlier in January 2016 than Obama's final days in office.) If the Senate flips Republican, Obama will be unable to get any nominee through the approval process, unless he caves to the republicans and puts in somebody at least as "right" as Roberts. (I don't **think** he would nominate "another Thomas or Scalia"...WOULD HE????)

    I have long considered SCOTUS appointments to be the least appreciated, and most wrongly ignored, issue in all of national electoral politics.
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    Re: 2014 Senate Races and what it means for the LGBT community

    Quote Originally Posted by HenryReardon View Post
    There have been NO good choices in any presidential election for many, many years. That is a fact.

    Why are you and the other marriage-minded idiots so ashamed of being gay. Are you unable to introduce your partner as your partner.
    Do you think that calling another man your 'husband' will confer some sort of societal good-housekeeping seal of approval on you?
    What nonsense.

    Don't be afraid to admit you're gay.
    You don't need to follow the heterosexual norm.

    Elton John said much the same thing after his very public commitment ceremony and was excoriated for it.
    Nobody cares about this bullshit rhetoric. The world has passed this Neanderthal self-loathing thinking by. I pity those who think like you.
    That we are capable only of being what we are, remains our unforgivable sin.
    - Gene Wolfe

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    Re: 2014 Senate Races and what it means for the LGBT community

    Quote Originally Posted by Rolyo85 View Post
    . The world has passed this Neanderthal self-loathing thinking by. I pity those who think like you.
    The only self-loathing I see in your posts are the fact that you're ashamed to stand up and be gay.
    Acquire some self-respect and have a little dignity. You'll be a better man for it.

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    Re: 2014 Senate Races and what it means for the LGBT community

    Quote Originally Posted by HenryReardon View Post
    The only self-loathing I see in your posts are the fact that you're ashamed to stand up and be gay.
    Acquire some self-respect and have a little dignity. You'll be a better man for it.
    We both know this angle isn't working for you Anyone reading this is currently laughing at you. It's in fact so hilarious that it doesn't even merit a response.
    That we are capable only of being what we are, remains our unforgivable sin.
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    Re: 2014 Senate Races and what it means for the LGBT community

    Quote Originally Posted by Rolyo85 View Post
    We both know this angle isn't working for you Anyone reading this is currently laughing at you. It's in fact so hilarious that it doesn't even merit a response.
    Actually the lefties seem to be running away and hiding from the truth. Why are you so desperate to acquire the trappings of heterosexuality? What are you ashamed of? Afraid to admit that you've been sold a bill of goods?

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    Re: 2014 Senate Races and what it means for the LGBT community

    Nice to know you're content with being a second class citizen and are willing to fight along side those that also think that way Henry.
    For me,I'm not going to marry a woman because some people morally disapprove of it. I'm going to marry my bf and I should be able to have all the equal rights any straight couple would.

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    Re: 2014 Senate Races and what it means for the LGBT community

    I think, Rolyo - you hit a nerve with poor Henry.
    ATTACK OF THE LIBERAL ELITE

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    Re: 2014 Senate Races and what it means for the LGBT community

    Quote Originally Posted by Ninja108 View Post
    it. I'm going to marry my bf and I should be able to have all the equal rights any straight couple would.
    Go right ahead and make an utter fool of yourself and do so. But guess what? It won't be real.
    As for those much touted 'equal rights', you're going to be in for a rude awakening one day. That fraudulent piece of paper
    will not protect you.

    Why are you so desperate to follow the heterosexual model? What are you ashamed of?

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    Re: 2014 Senate Races and what it means for the LGBT community

    Oh, Henry. Just because YOU haven't had a real relationship, doesn't mean ours aren't
    That we are capable only of being what we are, remains our unforgivable sin.
    - Gene Wolfe

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    Re: 2014 Senate Races and what it means for the LGBT community

    Quote Originally Posted by Rolyo85 View Post
    Oh, Henry. Just because YOU haven't had a real relationship, doesn't mean ours aren't
    Tell that to my partner of almost eighteen years and he'll put you in your place.

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    Re: 2014 Senate Races and what it means for the LGBT community

    Why, you can't tell him yourself? You don't talk to each other?

    Yeah, that's how it feels when people are addressing your position with utter idiocy. Take note.
    That we are capable only of being what we are, remains our unforgivable sin.
    - Gene Wolfe

  38. #38
    . chrisrobin's Avatar
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    Re: 2014 Senate Races and what it means for the LGBT community

    Quote Originally Posted by HenryReardon View Post
    We already have equal rights. The same rights as every other citizen.


    Thanks for stopping by. When do you return to the mother ship?

    ...with history the final judge of our deeds. - JFK

  39. #39
    JUB Addict Ninja108's Avatar
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    Re: 2014 Senate Races and what it means for the LGBT community

    If that's the case Henry,then I would have to believe you and he have a lot of $$$. Because the only LGBT people I've met who spout the same garbage you do are ones that have so much money the financial worries many LGBT couples face due to marriage inequality really aren't an issue for htem.

  40. #40
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    Re: 2014 Senate Races and what it means for the LGBT community

    Wrong yet again.

  41. #41
    Execuvette Rolyo85's Avatar
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    Re: 2014 Senate Races and what it means for the LGBT community

    Yeah, well, nobody is too interested in the guessing game as far as you're concerned.
    That we are capable only of being what we are, remains our unforgivable sin.
    - Gene Wolfe

  42. #42
    JUB Addict Ninja108's Avatar
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    Re: 2014 Senate Races and what it means for the LGBT community

    Back to the thread topic..Stephanie Herseth Sandlin will NOT run in SD. Good riddance,don't need someone who voted to make us second class citizens with the disguisting Federal MArriage Amendment in office.

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