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  1. #1

    Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?

    I don't know about you, but it feels like everyone......from gay folks to the media, is really optimistic about the Supreme Court taking up DOMA & California's Proposition 8? It's like people are already rejoicing, and predicting how big of a win for gay marriage it's going to be....

    Maybe it's the country boi in me speaking, but I don't think it's a good idea to count chickens until they've hatched. It's also been my experience that when people are too confident or smug about something, things don't always go their way..

    Remember Obamacare? All of the Republicans & conservatives & tea partiers were all but certain that it was going to be struck down by the Supreme Court. Instead they chose to uphold it......but again, it was upheld in a way most people never predicted.......Justice Roberts, the deciding vote, rationalized it as a form of "tax". So the lesson of the story, is we don't know what the Supreme Court will do...

    I think people should let Olson & Boies do their work, & wait until the Supreme Court makes their ruling. The Supreme Court could choose to let both DOMA & Proposition 8 stand, and we have to be ready for that too.

    Everyone cross your fingers & don't jinx anything!
    I used to be like that, but not anymore. At least not on the first date. Third date, whole other story..."

  2. #2
    GiancarloC
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    Re: Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?

    I'm not. And I've said in several threads I am holding back any celebration because I've been let down.

    And "Country boi"? Huh? Anaheim is suddenly country side?

    Yea, and I do remember Obamacare... they upheld it for a variety of reasons, showing the court may be willing to tilt more towards the liberal side here.

    Of course it'll be essential left leaning justices get installed over conservative ones in years to come.

    And from what I've seen in media reports... people are awaiting to see what will happen. They aren't celebrating... there is a sense of tension before the decision. This country is headed towards legalizing same sex marriage whether the republicans or conservative want it or not.
    Last edited by GiancarloC; March 25th, 2013 at 10:11 PM.

  3. #3

    Re: Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?

    Quote Originally Posted by GiancarloC View Post
    And "Country boi"? Huh? Anaheim is suddenly country side?
    Anaheim Hills Anaheim is flat, now mostly Latino and Democrat.........but Anaheim Hills is hilly, and still mostly White & Republican.
    I used to be like that, but not anymore. At least not on the first date. Third date, whole other story..."

  4. #4
    GiancarloC
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    Re: Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?

    Quote Originally Posted by JayQueer View Post
    Anaheim Hills Anaheim is flat, now mostly Latino and Democrat.........but Anaheim Hills is hilly, and still mostly White & Republican.
    It's gotta burn that Orange County is pretty much going the same way as San Diego county and is going to be majority democrat soon enough? But Orange County isn't the country side. And I suppose "white and republican" is a good thing, a "Latino and democrat" is a bad things? Hmm.

    If one wants a real country side they need to head up pass Visalia.

  5. #5

    Re: Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?

    Because we've read many analysis of the Supreme Court over the years, and virtually every expert is predicting at least a narrow victory. Kennedy is the swing vote on the court, and he has proven to be a strong ally, while Roberts is also considered to be open. Add into this rapidly increasing public support and it makes it virtually a guaranteed win.

  6. #6
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    Re: Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?

    Every time we're at the precipice of a marriage equality victory, Debbie Downer JayQueer stops by to gleefully gloat on how the hatred and bigotry he votes for is going to keep us down. He did this last time during the 2012 election and predicted neither of the four states were going to legalize marriage equality.

    Well you were dead wrong, JayQueer. And you'll be wrong again.

    Marriage equality is coming.
    #439th oldest member on JUB.

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    Re: Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?

    I'm not expecting a broad ruling but this issue is moving fast and the court knows it. If they don't address it now,they will be dealing with it again in 5-10 years.

  8. #8

    Re: Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?

    Quote Originally Posted by Just_Believe18 View Post
    Every time we're at the precipice of a marriage equality victory, Debbie Downer JayQueer stops by to gleefully gloat on how the hatred and bigotry he votes for is going to keep us down. He did this last time during the 2012 election and predicted neither of the four states were going to legalize marriage equality.

    Well you were dead wrong, JayQueer. And you'll be wrong again.

    Marriage equality is coming.
    Yah I remember he predicted that, and also that after the election he all but disappeared for a while (just like the Republican Party in general!).

  9. #9
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    Re: Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?

    Quote Originally Posted by JayQueer View Post
    I don't know about you, but it feels like everyone......from gay folks to the media, is really optimistic about the Supreme Court taking up DOMA & California's Proposition 8? It's like people are already rejoicing, and predicting how big of a win for gay marriage it's going to be....

    Maybe it's the country boi in me speaking, but I don't think it's a good idea to count chickens until they've hatched. It's also been my experience that when people are too confident or smug about something, things don't always go their way..

    Remember Obamacare? All of the Republicans & conservatives & tea partiers were all but certain that it was going to be struck down by the Supreme Court. Instead they chose to uphold it......but again, it was upheld in a way most people never predicted.......Justice Roberts, the deciding vote, rationalized it as a form of "tax". So the lesson of the story, is we don't know what the Supreme Court will do...

    I think people should let Olson & Boies do their work, & wait until the Supreme Court makes their ruling. The Supreme Court could choose to let both DOMA & Proposition 8 stand, and we have to be ready for that too.

    Everyone cross your fingers & don't jinx anything!
    Says the homo who voted for Prop 8.

    At one level, I have a feeling that you'd love the SC to uphold Prop 8 in order to help you justify in your own head why you ticked the box the way you did.

    Or to have homo marriage stomped on so that it would make you feel better about your own politics.

    Well, I can only hope that in this case you are wrong. As wrong as you were about the 2012 election results.

    Oh. And living in a corner of a gated community in Annaheim Hills does not make you a 'country boi'. Really.

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    Re: Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?

    We have to keep hope alive even if republicans are 15 to 50 years behind the times.

  11. #11
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    Re: Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?

    I'm holding back as well, even if equality won there would be a lot of stuff that needs to be addressed in the coming future.

    And no true country boy would spell "boy" like a cityboy would.

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    Re: Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?

    All due respect,anyone who voted for Prop 8 really has no room to lecture anyone.

  13. #13

    Re: Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?

    First reports back from the hearing are reporting that based on the questions asked, Prop 8 is dead.

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    Re: Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?

    Why did JayQueer vote for Prop 8?
    Telling it like it is.

  15. #15

    Re: Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?

    Because he was in the closent, in denial, and brainwashed by his parents.

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    Re: Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?

    '
    Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?
    The wording of this question is similar to "are you still beating your wife?" Everyone? We need empirical evidence, please.

    Why should anyone have to know anything? - Sheldon Cooper

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    Re: Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?

    Quote Originally Posted by JayQueer View Post
    I don't know about you, but it feels like everyone......from gay folks to the media, is really optimistic about the Supreme Court taking up DOMA & California's Proposition 8? It's like people are already rejoicing, and predicting how big of a win for gay marriage it's going to be....

    Maybe it's the country boi in me speaking, but I don't think it's a good idea to count chickens until they've hatched. It's also been my experience that when people are too confident or smug about something, things don't always go their way..

    Remember Obamacare? All of the Republicans & conservatives & tea partiers were all but certain that it was going to be struck down by the Supreme Court. Instead they chose to uphold it......but again, it was upheld in a way most people never predicted.......Justice Roberts, the deciding vote, rationalized it as a form of "tax". So the lesson of the story, is we don't know what the Supreme Court will do...

    I think people should let Olson & Boies do their work, & wait until the Supreme Court makes their ruling. The Supreme Court could choose to let both DOMA & Proposition 8 stand, and we have to be ready for that too.

    Everyone cross your fingers & don't jinx anything!
    I've read numerous threads you've posted in, and I'm left each time with WTF? I see someone who is struggling to find who he is or isn't. The term self-loathing comes to mind. I truly hope I'm wrong.

    Here's where I'm coming from. I've lived the struggle. I've been discriminated against. I've been shunned by family members. I've been passed over for jobs.

    But I've also flourished, because I'm not willing to let others define ME. I chose to live my life with dignity and respect, and expect to receive the same from others. When that was not the case, on I went about my business.

    And today, I'm thrilled to see what so many have fought so hard for for so many years finally come to the forefront, that public opinion is now squarely in the pro-gay marriage column. That I can marry my partner of 35 years just amazes me because when I was your age, today was just a big dream.

    So you know, today is a big day to so many people on so many levels. Your post seems to somewhat trivilize the subject. No offense intended, as I remember, like you, thinking I knew everything when I was your age.

    I didn't, and you don't. Life experiences hopefully, will change that. It did for me...
    Last edited by MisterB; March 26th, 2013 at 10:54 AM.

  18. #18
    JockBoy87
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    Re: Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?

    It's all been said.

    1) Kennedy is reliable.

    2) The law is well established.

    3) The legal arguments are unassailable.

  19. #19
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    Re: Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?

    JayQueer asks in the thread's title:

    Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?

    The trajectory and tide of history should help you understand the optimism. It's moving the electorate as the electorate is moving the issue of marriage equality in the direction that is favorable to the community of LGBT. It has to do, in part, with sweeping political change in the country. It's also social change. It's both, because real conservatives and real liberals, and even those who don't identify as such have a common interest in the matter. Those from numerous political stripes who are supportive of the Bill of Rights (as argued by Theodore Olson) find this critical to the better collective health of American society and its many functions.

    I have C-Span on now, and David Frum was shown have spoken optimistically about it. What's going on is that a big part of the country is growing up about a certain part of sex that makes them uncomforable; the ones who feel that way are the ones who don't want LGBT to have what heterosexuals have—legal marriage recognized federally and with all that comes with it. It's "marriage equality," stemming from interpretation of the U.S. Constitution not specifying just who has the right to marry. Those not wanting change want a club where only "one man and one woman" can have that right. Argument to that is that, again, the Constitution doesn't specify and, to deny LGBT people the right to marriage as permitted heterosexuals, it is discrimination.

    So, this one is going to the U.S. Supreme Court. I think very optimistically about it. I don't feel I should predict. So, right now, I feel good. And I think everyone here—presuming they care about this issue—should be feeling positive.

  20. #20
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    Re: Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?

    Quote Originally Posted by MystikWizard View Post
    Why did JayQueer vote for Prop 8?
    They always take the bait. Always.
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  21. #21
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    Re: Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?

    Quote Originally Posted by MisterB View Post
    I've read numerous threads you've posted in, and I'm left each time with WTF? I see someone who is struggling to find who he is or isn't. The term self-loathing comes to mind. I truly hope I'm wrong.

    Here's where I'm coming from. I've lived the struggle. I've been discriminated against. I've been shunned by family members. I've been passed over for jobs.

    But I've also flourished, because I'm not willing to let others define ME. I chose to live my life with dignity and respect, and expect to receive the same from others. When that was not the case, on I went about my business.

    And today, I'm thrilled to see what so many have fought so hard for for so many years finally come to the forefront, that public opinion is now squarely in the pro-gay marriage column. That I can marry my partner of 35 years just amazes me because when I was your age, today was just a big dream.

    So you know, today is a big day to so many people on so many levels. Your post seems to somewhat trivilize the subject. No offense intended, as I remember, like you, thinking I knew everything when I was your age.

    I didn't, and you don't. Life experiences hopefully, will change that. It did for me...
    Congratulations on 35 years together. I'm so happy for you. Let's pray the SCOTUS does the right thing and allow ALL us to get married. My partner of 31 years passed away last Sept. So this is not to be for us.

    Ignore JQ, I think he does it for attention or for pity. Who knows. I've tried to give him advise when he first started here. He does not want to listen. soooooooooooooooooo You know how it is.
    BEWARE! Harassing the Indian may result in sudden and severe hair loss.

  22. #22
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    Re: Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?

    I think you will see a much more broad ruling on DOMA, a federal document than Prop8 which given the discussion today, is more about states' rights than gay couples.

  23. #23
    GiancarloC
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    Re: Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?

    State rights? When will that excuse stop superseding the rights of citizens? We've had propositions thrown out before.

  24. #24
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  25. #25
    GiancarloC
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    Re: Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?

    The states right excuse is something used since the 1860s. It is just an excuse to violate civil rights.

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    Re: Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?

    The states' rights issue is the overturning of state-voted referendums as it can be viewed as an overreach of the Judicial system especially given Federal precedence [gay-marriage is not recognized by the US Government]. I think that is the main concern with Prop 8. That is why the focus should squarely be on DOMA and not Prop 8. If they kill DOMA, Prop 8 becomes a moot point.

    You could hypothetically have a conservative whackjob in Colorado take the voter proposition to legalize marijuana to court and they would probably win.

  27. #27
    RazorzEdge88
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    Re: Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?

    Quote Originally Posted by maxpowr9 View Post
    The states' rights issue is the overturning of state-voted referendums as it can be viewed as an overreach of the Judicial system especially given Federal precedence [gay-marriage is not recognized by the US Government].
    Would it be judicial overreach to invalidate a ballot initiative taking away rights from black people?

    If what you said about Colorado were true, the case would have been filed already. It won't happen because there's not a solid enough argument for banning marijuana, just as there's absolutely no semblance of a valid argument for denying same-sex couples the right to marry.
    Last edited by RazorzEdge88; March 26th, 2013 at 05:19 PM.

  28. #28
    GiancarloC
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    Re: Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?

    Quote Originally Posted by maxpowr9 View Post
    The states' rights issue is the overturning of state-voted referendums as it can be viewed as an overreach of the Judicial system especially given Federal precedence [gay-marriage is not recognized by the US Government]. I think that is the main concern with Prop 8. That is why the focus should squarely be on DOMA and not Prop 8. If they kill DOMA, Prop 8 becomes a moot point.
    Nope. State amendments have been overturned in the Supreme Court before, but just not on this issue. There were other issues. State rights argument is fundamentally flawed and weak. The US Supreme Court has authority over the entire country and is recognized as the highest court in the land. There has to be focus on Prop 8 and he has to be thrown out, along with DOMA.
    Last edited by GiancarloC; March 26th, 2013 at 05:33 PM.

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    Re: Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?

    Quote Originally Posted by GiancarloC View Post
    The states right excuse is something used since the 1860s. It is just an excuse to violate civil rights.
    Let's not forget Tricky Dick in 1968: Southern Strategy. A fart by any other name...

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  30. #30
    JockBoy87
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    Re: Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?

    Quote Originally Posted by maxpowr9 View Post
    If they kill DOMA, Prop 8 becomes a moot point.
    They are separate issues.

    For example, the federal government recognizes first cousin marriages of some states, while other states do not recognize first cousin marriages.

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    Re: Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?

    Quote Originally Posted by maxpowr9 View Post
    I think you will see a much more broad ruling on DOMA, a federal document than Prop8 which given the discussion today, is more about states' rights than gay couples.
    Am I the only one who's been curious as to why the DOMA debate is coming after the Prop8 debate?

    It seems to me if SCOTUS settled that debate first, then the Prop8 debate would be a "no brainer."

    Jockboy87?

    Care to weigh in on your legal projections on that matter?
    Never regret anything, because in that moment it's exactly what you wanted.

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    Re: Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rolyo85 View Post
    We're black rights a state issue?
    Yes.

    Particularly when it came to "marriage equality" between the "races," and the abolishment of Slavery.

    Ever heard of a State called Mississippi (or The South in General)?

    Not they they matter unless you're the Governor of Texas and are pissed that they top your State in teenage pregnancy, high school drop outs, and the number of poor children who are uninsured by a factor of 50, and you're posting at 49.

    How about as it applies to Supreme Court cases?

    The last major ruling from SCOTUS in our favor came in 2003 (Ten years ago) in Lawrence v Texas.

    It's generally been about what a "state" can and can't impose upon a "minority."

    From what I've heard today SCOTUS is trying to find away to wriggle out of that argument.

    If they can, then any ruling that they might find will only apply to the voters of California, and supporters of Prop8.

    Even IF SCOTUS rules in favor (somehow) of the LGBT Community, there are huge segments of the population that aren't suddenly going to embrace that ruling.

    Some wonder and ask "why" now?

    Because it's going to take that much longer to get those with "religious objections" on board to get with the program, and fuck the U.S. Constitution or any ruling from SCOTUS.

    Try not to be too smug.

    This could go down either way at this point.
    Never regret anything, because in that moment it's exactly what you wanted.

  33. #33
    GiancarloC
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    Re: Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?

    Of course all the attorney defending Prop 8 could argue was children.. the same old "think of the children" crap... that failed in three different states. He just doesn't get it, and Justice Kagan said it well enough... not all married couples are having children and certainly not ones over the age of 55. In addition, there are children who are getting harmed by the gay marriage bans.

    http://www.newyorker.com/online/blog...-children.html

    Mr. Cooper has no legs to stand on and sounds much like some of the right wingers on here. Using the same old logic. The author of the above article said if we were thinking solely about children, gay marriage should then be legalized without question.

    I really have to read on it more.

    If anyone is interested here is the direct transcript audio without any extra fluff from the media:

    http://now.iscotus.org/news/todays_p..._now_available - The audio is available

    http://www.oyez.org/ - This is a good site for reference.
    Last edited by GiancarloC; March 26th, 2013 at 10:01 PM.

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    Re: Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?

    Yeah, it's such a shame that my dad was a property lawyer so this kind of stuff is completely foreign to him [my typical source of law stuff] but he can have a rousing conversation about littoral rights.

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    Re: Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?

    I have a feeling Prop 8 is going to get kicked down the road but DOMA,I see being struck down.

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    Re: Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?

    I want to know how Jayqueer the son of foreign nationals from India who lives in Orange county is somehow a "country boy," perhaps his family is country people raising chickens in Bangalore (?), but there's nothing country about ORANGE COUNTY.
    ATTACK OF THE LIBERAL ELITE

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    Re: Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?

    I do worry that the courts might simply do the no standing route when it comes to both Prop 8 and DOMA. The former doesn't bother me as much as the latter.
    DOMA is NEVER going to get repealed through the house,period. Only the courts can strike it down.

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    Re: Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?

    .

    Why should anyone have to know anything? - Sheldon Cooper

  39. #39
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    Re: Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?

    Quote Originally Posted by JockBoy87 View Post
    For example, the federal government recognizes first cousin marriages of some states, while other states do not recognize first cousin marriages.
    Some states don't ALLOW first cousin marriages but, if you marry your first cousin in a state that DOES, you are still legally married in all 50 states, even the ones that wouldn't have given you a license in the first place. All states do, indeed "recognize" first cousin marriages because, until DOMA, state were forced to recognize any marriage performed in any another state.

  40. #40
    JockBoy87
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    Re: Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?

    Quote Originally Posted by LuvFindsAndyHardy View Post
    Some states don't ALLOW first cousin marriages but, if you marry your first cousin in a state that DOES, you are still legally married in all 50 states, even the ones that wouldn't have given you a license in the first place. All states do, indeed "recognize" first cousin marriages because, until DOMA, state [sic] were forced to recognize any marriage performed in any another state.
    No they are not. Comity is neither forced nor guaranteed under the US Constitution.

    It isn't even if we win both cases and marriage equality becomes law nationwide. Red states could be passive aggressive and refuse to recognize outside same sex marriages if they so desired.

  41. #41
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    Re: Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?

    i think that the supreme court is going to basically decide this off of the aspect of lgbt people in america being discriminated and will even make lgbt people a suspect class based off of the arguments that are presented in the case as well as the effects that discrimination on the state and federal level plays a major part to society. i think they will make a landmark decision as the nation is changing its views towards us.
    Last edited by refujiunderground; March 27th, 2013 at 10:12 AM.
    one thing about the closet/you don't have to hurry/it will be bad tomorrow/so brother, don't you worry

  42. #42
    GiancarloC
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    Re: Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?

    Wow... even Bill O'Reilly threw in the towel in being against gay marriage.. lol..

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/0...n_2962110.html

    He said the opponents can only thump their bible and don't have a compelling argument.

    He has had a rare moment of clarity lol.

    At any rate, as far as making LGBT a suspect class I don't know about that. That'll be a great decision, but we will have to wait and see. The Court justices were not receptive to the DOMA at all today and I can see that being struck down in its entirety. Probably a 6-3 decision on that one. I'm less sure about Prop 8.

  43. #43
    JUB Addict CoolBlue71's Avatar
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    Re: Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?

    Quote Originally Posted by GiancarloC View Post
    The states' right excuse is something used since the 1860s. It is just an excuse to violate civil rights.
    That is true.

    It's one thing for states to want some independence from the federal level. But the United States Constitution is not for individual states to trump the federal level of the Bill of Rights that are applicable to all citizens of not just one state but of the entire United States.

    We do not take our individual rights and leave them be applicable in just this given state or that given state. This offering up of states' rights: If this were just states' rights, who knows how much longer African-Americans would have been enslaved? If this were states' rights, who knows how much longer women (and African-Americans) would have been denied their right to vote?

    You're right: Those who want to cop to states' rights on this issue are actually desperate. So in one last conniving effort, they make yet another attempt to delay as if that can fool LGBT persons into giving concessions on their individual rights. That is just another part of discrimination; specifically, the continuation of that discrimination.

  44. #44
    GiancarloC
    Guest

    Re: Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?

    Exactly. And the US is governed by the US Constitution which guarantees a federalist system. The federalists won in 1787 and that is something some seem to forget. States do have autonomy, but many are also dependent on federal aid. Some republicans decry the federal government but are completely fine with taking money from the federal government... it's hypocrisy.

    At any rate, some want the Articles of Confederation to govern this country... and that was a failed project. The US Constitution guarantees a central government with a Supreme Court. State autonomy is important, but if states pass arbitrary laws that discriminate against minorities those laws can fall into question in the US Supreme Court. State laws have been struck down the US Supreme Court more times than one can count... it's nothing new.

    Those copping out to the states right excuse are only using it now... what about all those times the US Supreme Court struck down state laws that were grossly unconstitutional?

    Edit:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Articles_of_Confederation - This was a FAILED project that was replaced by the US Constitution. The US government ultimately governs this country and again the federalists won. This country is NOT governed by the Articles of Confederation so right wing conservatives need to stop acting like it does.
    Last edited by GiancarloC; March 27th, 2013 at 01:49 PM.

  45. #45
    JockBoy87
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    Re: Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?

    Quote Originally Posted by GiancarloC View Post
    Wow... even Bill O'Reilly threw in the towel in being against gay marriage.. lol..

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/0...n_2962110.html

    He said the opponents can only thump their bible and don't have a compelling argument.

    He has had a rare moment of clarity lol.

    At any rate, as far as making LGBT a suspect class I don't know about that. That'll be a great decision, but we will have to wait and see. The Court justices were not receptive to the DOMA at all today and I can see that being struck down in its entirety. Probably a 6-3 decision on that one. I'm less sure about Prop 8.
    We are likely to get a ruling based on states' rights, and not equal protection, from Kennedy. It's a win that I'll take, but not without some insult.

    If we had the Warren Court today, or an Al Gore nominee, it wouldn't be a struggle to make sense of tea leaves. We would have nationwide marriage equality in 90 days, and heightened scrutiny. Instead we have to pay technical homage to a moderate Reaganite for some scraps from the table of justice. It's degrading. People forget that it was a very liberal court that granted all those civil rights victories between 1954 and 1968.

  46. #46
    GiancarloC
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    Re: Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?

    Yes I know full well about the Warren court... Warren's court was well ahead of its time, and if there was such a court today we would have this done with. Kennedy needs to open his eyes and realize it is about equal protection and not states rights. When states are violating the equal protection clause there is a problem with that. As long as we can get DOMA and Prop 8 overturned those are steps. I don't think we could get full gay marriage nationwide... at least not with this court.

    We need more Justices like Elena Kagan. I appreciate Obama for appointing her... she made Cooper look like a moron.

    http://www.policymic.com/articles/31...oral-arguments

    I believe DOMA will be overturned but not completely certain about Prop 8. I'm still cautiously optimistic. Maybe 6-3 on DOMA and 5-4 on Prop 8 in our favor. It won't be sweeping, but if gay marriage is legalized in the nation's largest state that'll send a clear and significant message.
    Last edited by GiancarloC; March 27th, 2013 at 02:26 PM.

  47. #47
    JockBoy87
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    Re: Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?

    I think it will be a 5-4 concurring opinion for both. Kennedy will write the majority opinion based on technical matters, while the four liberals will add on reasons based on equal protection, due process, and heightened scrutiny.

    Roberts seemed skeptical the whole time. I don't think we'll get his support. He might as well have spat in his cousin's face.

  48. #48
    JUB Addict T-Rexx's Avatar
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    Re: Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?

    Quote Originally Posted by refujiunderground View Post
    i think they will make a landmark decision as the nation is changing its views towards us.
    My opinion is worthless, but I don't think we're going to get a "landmark decision." I think it's going to be narrow.

    Based on the questions the justices have been asking, and their responses to the answers, I have a gut suspicion that SCOTUS will reject Prop 8 on standing. Kennedy in particular does not seem to want to argue the case. That would make California a tenth gay marriage state. Progress, but not earth-shattering.

    On DOMA, I don't think anyone expects the court to uphold the law as constitutional. The arguments presented in support of DOMA have been laughable. But, the court can strike it down at the federal level while still upholding the right of individual states to define marriage for themselves. That would leave us with nine (or ten) states with gay marriage, and 40 (or 41) without. Again, progress - but hardly earth-shattering.

    I will keep my fingers crossed. But this court strikes me as too timid to bring us sweeping reform.
    Last edited by T-Rexx; March 27th, 2013 at 02:55 PM.

  49. #49
    GiancarloC
    Guest

    Re: Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?

    Well some progress is better than having a decision that would harm us. I do think we have at least 5 justices on our side here, and it's too bad Roberts doesn't get it. Even if it is a narrow 5-4 decision, it could help us push for additional progress in the future. Maybe it'll just have to be this way. I don't expect a sweeping decision either.

  50. #50

    Re: Why is everyone so optimistic about the Supreme Court ruling?

    This is why we need to elect Hillary in 2016 and 2020. She would likely replace Kennedy and Scalia.

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