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  1. #1
    JUB Addict CoolBlue71's Avatar
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    Poll Tracks Dramatic Rise In Support for Gay Marriage

    I was watching ABC News as anchor Diane Sawyer announced a new poll from ABC News/Washington Post showing even further support for same-sex marriage. The trend is continuing. Today's Republican Party, having to kiss the asses of the religious right (part of their base; very much their fault!), are a big enemy to the LGBT community. Thank goodness the tide of history is going against Team Red. (Generally the case electorally…and politically.) —CoolBlue71


    Poll Tracks Dramatic Rise In Support for Gay Marriage

    By Gary Langer
    March 18, 2013 | http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics...-gay-marriage/

    Support for gay marriage reached a new high in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, marking a dramatic change in public attitudes on the subject across the past decade. Fifty-eight percent of Americans now say it should be legal for gay and lesbian couples to wed.

    That number has grown sharply in ABC News/Washington Post polls, from a low of 32 percent in a 2004 survey of registered voters, advancing to a narrow majority for the first time only two years ago, and now up again to a significant majority for the first time.

  2. #2
    GiancarloC
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    Re: Poll Tracks Dramatic Rise In Support for Gay Marriage

    We have seen gay marriage legalized in three states by ballot, including in Maryland where I never expected it to be legalized. And another state defeated an anti-gay initiative. These polls, and the results at the ballot show a great shift in support towards gay marriage. When well respected figures like Barack Obama and now more recently, Hillary Clinton came out in support this would have an impact on public opinion.

    The religious right and GOP are getting their asses kicked, but we must remain on guard. They won't continue to go down without a fight.

    I hope this trend in the polls continue...

    I can't wait for the day that marriage equality is finally respected in California.

  3. #3
    JockBoy87
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    Re: Poll Tracks Dramatic Rise In Support for Gay Marriage

    The Washington Post correctly predicted the outcome in Maryland, but this is scarcely believable that the whole nation would outpace a fairly liberal state by six points in four months. I would be suspect until another one comes out with the same result.

  4. #4
    GiancarloC
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    Re: Poll Tracks Dramatic Rise In Support for Gay Marriage

    Well there is a solid pattern among polls regarding gay marriage... so I think this poll is pretty reliable and qualified.

  5. #5
    JockBoy87
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    Re: Poll Tracks Dramatic Rise In Support for Gay Marriage

    Quote Originally Posted by GiancarloC View Post
    Well there is a solid pattern among polls regarding gay marriage... so I think this poll is pretty reliable and qualified.
    The solid pattern is a logistic regression line calculated from an aggregate of polls.

    Usually I trust the WaPo too, but this one is so extraordinary, it is going to take corroboration to convince me it is this high already.

  6. #6
    GiancarloC
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    Re: Poll Tracks Dramatic Rise In Support for Gay Marriage

    Well here are some other ones.

    http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com...-sex-marriage/ - CNN Poll: 53% in support, 44% against.
    http://www.politico.com/story/2013/0...618.html?hp=l3 - Catholics support 54%-38% in favor, and overall supports it 47-44%.
    http://www.politico.com/story/2013/0...025.html?hp=l3 - The ABC one again, but it shows a long running trend.

    http://www.mercurynews.com/samesexma...ifornia-voters - 61%-32% in favor here in California.

    Most polls are in the lower to mid 50s in favor of same sex marriage. It'll definitely depend on state to state... we'll get gay marriage in states like California and Illinois before we get it in Southern states obviously. I think the ABC one is credible.

  7. #7
    JUB Addict T-Rexx's Avatar
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    Re: Poll Tracks Dramatic Rise In Support for Gay Marriage

    Even if the poll is accurate, it is problematic.

    Same sex marriage support is not distributed evenly across the electorate. It is supported by only 33% of self-identified conservatives and 34% of Republicans.

    That means that half of America's legislators will continue to oppose gay marriage, because their constituents oppose it by overwhelming numbers. A significant majority of Americans may favor gay marriage, but it will continue to be a battle royal in the legislatures.

  8. #8
    JUB Addict CoolBlue71's Avatar
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    Re: Poll Tracks Dramatic Rise In Support for Gay Marriage

    Quote Originally Posted by GiancarloC View Post

    Most polls are in the lower to mid 50s in favor of same sex marriage. It'll definitely depend on state to state... we'll get gay marriage in states like California and Illinois before we get it in Southern states obviously. I think the ABC one is credible.
    That's why the Republican politicians, while confronted with this issue, who espouse states' rights are full of shit. They are not to be trusted.

  9. #9
    JockBoy87
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    Re: Poll Tracks Dramatic Rise In Support for Gay Marriage

    Quote Originally Posted by T-Rexx View Post
    That means that half of America's legislators will continue to oppose gay marriage, because their constituents oppose it by overwhelming numbers. A significant majority of Americans may favor gay marriage, but it will continue to be a battle royal in the legislatures.
    Despite 74% support in Germany, the ruling coalition still opposes same sex marriage. It wouldn't matter if it were 90%, as long as the tiny CSU dictates social policy to Merkel and her party in the Bundestag, that's the way it will be.

  10. #10
    GiancarloC
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    Re: Poll Tracks Dramatic Rise In Support for Gay Marriage

    Quote Originally Posted by JockBoy87 View Post
    Despite 74% support in Germany, the ruling coalition still opposes same sex marriage. It wouldn't matter if it were 90%, as long as the tiny CSU dictates social policy to Merkel and her party in the Bundestag, that's the way it will be.
    Her party is headed to a major defeat. Merkel isn't unpopular in Germany, but her ruling party is very unpopular. I expect the SDP to make significant gains in the next election. If the SDP and Greens make significant gains that could make it very difficult for Merkel to even form a government. But that's off topic.

    Yes, while this poll isn't evenly distributed, it's best to start somewhere. We need to work in states where it is practical. Obviously a state like Alabama and Tennessee... it's not going to happen.
    Last edited by GiancarloC; March 18th, 2013 at 05:33 PM.

  11. #11
    JUB Addict T-Rexx's Avatar
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    Re: Poll Tracks Dramatic Rise In Support for Gay Marriage

    Quote Originally Posted by GiancarloC View Post
    Merkel isn't unpopular in Germany
    She's pretty unpopular outside of Germany.

  12. #12
    JockBoy87
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    Re: Poll Tracks Dramatic Rise In Support for Gay Marriage

    Quote Originally Posted by GiancarloC View Post
    Her party is headed to a major defeat. Merkel isn't unpopular in Germany, but her ruling party is very unpopular. I expect the SDP to make significant gains in the next election. If the SDP and Greens make significant gains that could make it very difficult for Merkel to even form a government. But that's off topic.

    Yes, while this poll isn't evenly distributed, it's best to start somewhere. We need to work in states where it is practical. Obviously a state like Alabama and Tennessee... it's not going to happen.
    We are going to reach a brick wall in state legislatures soon, so without a Supreme Court mandate, it is back to the ballot in most states. That's where the majority opinion really matters. Fortunately, there are 23 direct initiated constitutional amendment states. We can start picking off the easy ones such as Oregon, Colorado, and Nevada, and then move on to the harder ones like Ohio, Michigan, until we get a court ruling.

  13. #13
    GiancarloC
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    Re: Poll Tracks Dramatic Rise In Support for Gay Marriage

    Quote Originally Posted by JockBoy87 View Post
    We are going to reach a brick wall in state legislatures soon, so without a Supreme Court mandate, it is back to the ballot in most states. That's where the majority opinion really matters. Fortunately, there are 23 direct initiated constitutional amendment states. We can start picking off the easy ones such as Oregon, Colorado, and Nevada, and then move on to the harder ones like Ohio, Michigan, until we get a court ruling.
    Unfortunately getting it legal in more states is probably the only way it can be done. I would wait for Obama to make some court appointments before we put our bets on the Supreme Court doing anything.

  14. #14
    JockBoy87
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    Re: Poll Tracks Dramatic Rise In Support for Gay Marriage

    Quote Originally Posted by GiancarloC View Post
    Unfortunately getting it legal in more states is probably the only way it can be done.
    By my own count, there are 33 states we can get legislatively, or ultimately by initiated constitutional amendment, leaving us with the same number of states as on the eve of Loving v. Virginia.

    I would wait for Obama to make some court appointments before we put our bets on the Supreme Court doing anything.
    We will find out soon enough

    But he's got three years to mould the high court in his image. I don't see any of them budging. It will probably be Hillary who replaces Scalia, and makes a liberal court for a generation to come.

  15. #15
    GiancarloC
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    Re: Poll Tracks Dramatic Rise In Support for Gay Marriage

    Quote Originally Posted by JockBoy87 View Post
    By my own count, there are 33 states we can get legislatively, or ultimately by initiated constitutional amendment, leaving us with the same number of states as on the eve of Loving v. Virginia.
    I'll just wait for more decisions state by state, whether it be legislative or by state Supreme Court.

    But he's got three years to mould the high court in his image. I don't see any of them budging. It will probably be Hillary who replaces Scalia, and makes a liberal court for a generation to come.
    I don't think Hillary would be appointed to the Supreme Court... she's probably more likely to run in 2016... but that's just my view.

  16. #16
    JockBoy87
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    Re: Poll Tracks Dramatic Rise In Support for Gay Marriage

    Quote Originally Posted by GiancarloC View Post
    I'll just wait for more decisions state by state, whether it be legislative or by state Supreme Court.
    Long term outlooks are difficult to predict, so it will still take a few years before it's clear when and how national equality will come. I also think the state court route is obsolete. They are useful as fallbacks, however, in a few states such as Illinois and New Jersey.

    I don't think Hillary would be appointed to the Supreme Court... she's probably more likely to run in 2016... but that's just my view.
    Ambiguous modifier. I meant it will probably Hillary who appoints someone to replace Scalia, sometime between 2017 and 2024.

  17. #17
    GiancarloC
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    Re: Poll Tracks Dramatic Rise In Support for Gay Marriage

    Quote Originally Posted by JockBoy87 View Post
    Long term outlooks are difficult to predict, so it will still take a few years before it's clear when and how national equality will come. I also think the state court route is obsolete. They are useful as fallbacks, however, in a few states such as Illinois and New Jersey.
    We'll have to see. I'm just cautious.

    Ambiguous modifier. I meant it will probably Hillary who appoints someone to replace Scalia, sometime between 2017 and 2024.
    I misunderstood. We'll see if she runs for office.

  18. #18
    I can't breathe. chrisrobin's Avatar
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    Re: Poll Tracks Dramatic Rise In Support for Gay Marriage

    Quote Originally Posted by GiancarloC View Post
    We have seen gay marriage legalized in three states by ballot, including in Maryland where I never expected it to be legalized. And another state defeated an anti-gay initiative. These polls, and the results at the ballot show a great shift in support towards gay marriage. When well respected figures like Barack Obama and now more recently, Hillary Clinton came out in support this would have an impact on public opinion.

    The religious right and GOP are getting their asses kicked, but we must remain on guard. They won't continue to go down without a fight.

    I hope this trend in the polls continue...

    I can't wait for the day that marriage equality is finally respected in California.
    ^^^Sooner than later, I hope!

    The wankers will not quit. Not now. Not ever.

    ...with history the final judge of our deeds. - JFK

  19. #19
    JockBoy87
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    Re: Poll Tracks Dramatic Rise In Support for Gay Marriage

    Quote Originally Posted by chrisrobin View Post
    ^^^Sooner than later, I hope!

    The wankers will not quit. Not now. Not ever.
    Well now we know it is likely to be sooner and the 10th marriage equality state.

    Just as a side thought, the ordering convention is going to be tricky, because California is technically the second state, and it will simultaneously be the 10th, or 11th depending on how you look at it. By comparison, we call Grover Cleveland the 22nd and 24th president. Because California has had continuous legal marriages from 2008, it really should return to its place as the 2nd state after Massachusetts.

    Quote Originally Posted by GiancarloC View Post

    I hope this trend in the polls continue...
    I've had a look at the polls and we have an absolute majority in another 12 states. I'll just post a list of the states I believe will pass marriage equality in order.

    California
    Rhode Island
    Minnesota
    Delaware
    Illinois
    New Jersey
    Hawaii
    Oregon
    Colorado
    Nevada
    Ohio
    Michigan

    Polls by PPP, WaPo, and others show absolute majority support in these states. I think we will have them all by 2018.

    -------------------------

    New Mexico
    Arizona
    Montana
    Wyoming
    Missouri
    Nebraska

    We need to repeal in four of these initiated amendment states at the ballot in order to a majority of states. If we're lucky and work hard we can do it in the next 10 years. MO and NE will be the most difficult; they are polling at 36% right now, or what the national average was in the mid-2000s. New Mexico is a special case. We have a good shot at getting political support of the courts and county clerks because there is no statute prohibiting same sex marriage.

  20. #20

    Re: Poll Tracks Dramatic Rise In Support for Gay Marriage

    There is still much that could occur from now to the end of June. Remember that up to 5 states could pass same sex marriage by the time the Supreme Court issues it's rulings (and possibly 6 or 7 depending on how fast the situation develops in New Mexico and if Hawaii calls for a special session on it's bill).

  21. #21
    JockBoy87
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    Re: Poll Tracks Dramatic Rise In Support for Gay Marriage

    A great summary of reasons why the right wing has lost. The primary reason the article points out for shift in opinion, in my view, is that abstraction cannot compete with reality.

    6. As more gay and lesbian Americans came out to friends, family and co-workers, the anti-gay-marriage voices were handicapped; they argued against an issue in the abstract while gay-marriage proponents could argue that Mike and Sam down the street or Sue and Ann at the office shouldn’t be denied the right to marry.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...s=rss_homepage

  22. #22
    JUB Addict Ninja108's Avatar
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    Re: Poll Tracks Dramatic Rise In Support for Gay Marriage

    Saw your list. Good chances in those states but others ones,the courts WILL have to get involved again at some point. Places like Virigina,Missouri etc will NEVER allow bills to repeal gay marriage bans to get through.

  23. #23
    JockBoy87
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    Re: Poll Tracks Dramatic Rise In Support for Gay Marriage

    Quote Originally Posted by Ninja108 View Post
    Saw your list. Good chances in those states but others ones,the courts WILL have to get involved again at some point. Places like Virigina,Missouri etc will NEVER allow bills to repeal gay marriage bans to get through.
    Missouri is an initiated amendment state. Citizens don't need the legislature to act. I do believe the state will change eventually, and it already has. Progress is being made everywhere.

  24. #24

    Re: Poll Tracks Dramatic Rise In Support for Gay Marriage

    Gay rights has momentum. We will win these court challenges.

  25. #25
    JUB Addict Ninja108's Avatar
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    Re: Poll Tracks Dramatic Rise In Support for Gay Marriage

    Indeed..I will say it's a pity Scalia and Thomas are still around. A couple of more liberal justices and we wouldn't have to face the storng fact the can will be kicked down the road on Prop 8.
    As for DOMA..I'm praying it will be 5-4. Even if it's the state right's argument,still better then it being upheld.

  26. #26
    JockBoy87
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    Re: Poll Tracks Dramatic Rise In Support for Gay Marriage

    Quote Originally Posted by Milker View Post
    Gay rights has momentum. We will win these court challenges.
    Not just momentum. The tone of the debate has changed dramatically. No longer are we asking the question "wouldn't it be nice if," the complaint now is "I can't believe it's taken this long."

    Quote Originally Posted by Ninja108 View Post
    Indeed..I will say it's a pity Scalia and Thomas are still around. A couple of more liberal justices and we wouldn't have to face the storng fact the can will be kicked down the road on Prop 8.
    As for DOMA..I'm praying it will be 5-4. Even if it's the state right's argument,still better then it being upheld.
    Thomas was confirmed at a very young age for a justice, and at 64, he'll be around for a while.

    If the current court were more like the Warren court of the 50s and 60s, we'd have nationwide equality in June. The first gay rights victory at the court was in 1958 over gay publications in the mail. Being pro-gay was very very radical in the 1950s. To put things into perspective, that was around the time of the Lavender Scare, when Eisenhower and the federal government were on their witch hunt to extricate gays from public service. The theory was that gays were radical leftists and therefore communist anti-Americans, as some still view us today, and that state secrets were vulnerable to blackmail on gay employees.

    I wish the Warren court were around today, but it could be worse. If the current court were any more politicized I would be very worried. The GOP just reaffirmed its support of marriage discrimination today, despite the opportunity to change. They still bow to the pressure of Tony Perkins, I'm afraid. Still, the long tentacles of the religious right have no power over Anthony Kennedy, who has granted us great victories in the past.

  27. #27
    JUB Addict Ninja108's Avatar
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    Re: Poll Tracks Dramatic Rise In Support for Gay Marriage

    Indeed,I will say I don't think Kennedy is going to strike down DOMA on the Equal Protections clause,I think it will a 5-4 vote. Even if they kick back the Prop 8 ruling to California,I could see judges in some states looking at that ruling and striking down gay marriage bans in a handful of states.
    As for the GOP,the brutal remains that despite the gains we've made,running against gay marriage is still a winning issue in many states. And if the Senate goes back to Republicans in 2014,it will only make the Religious RIght's power trip go up and GOP think they don't need to change on a national level.

  28. #28
    JockBoy87
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    Re: Poll Tracks Dramatic Rise In Support for Gay Marriage

    Quote Originally Posted by Ninja108 View Post
    Indeed,I will say I don't think Kennedy is going to strike down DOMA on the Equal Protections clause,I think it will a 5-4 vote. Even if they kick back the Prop 8 ruling to California,I could see judges in some states looking at that ruling and striking down gay marriage bans in a handful of states.
    Absolutely. I fully expect a post-ruling surge, and plenty of new authorities to rule on. There are several federal and state cases down the pipeline, in lllnois and Minnesota if the bills fail, and in Utah, Michigan, New Jersey, Hawaii, Nevada, and New Mexico.

    As for the GOP,the brutal remains that despite the gains we've made,running against gay marriage is still a winning issue in many states. And if the Senate goes back to Republicans in 2014,it will only make the Religious RIght's power trip go up and GOP think they don't need to change on a national level.
    Possibly, but I expect the GOP response to gay marriage in the 2016 presidential general election debate will be cringeworthy. Even this past year, Romney found his position on social issues precarious, and avoided them assiduously. For good reason, even before our election victories gay marriage has done nothing for the GOP, and is now viewed by GOP advisers as an unproductive distraction. While it is not the third rail just yet, it will soon be. If not by 2016, then by 2020.

  29. #29
    JUB Addict Ninja108's Avatar
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    Re: Poll Tracks Dramatic Rise In Support for Gay Marriage

    Everywhere but the South. They will have to get dragged kicking and screaming like everything else. Keeping my fingers crossed about Minnestoa and Illinois. They are dragging their feet in.
    I also have to say,if I hear one more person say the people voted on it,41 states affirmed blah blah blah I'll go nuts. Rights of miniorities should NEVER be put up to a majority vote.

  30. #30
    JockBoy87
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    Re: Poll Tracks Dramatic Rise In Support for Gay Marriage

    Quote Originally Posted by Ninja108 View Post
    Everywhere but the South. They will have to get dragged kicking and screaming like everything else.
    Long term prognostication is difficult, but we at least know how they will go in the south. Legislative repeal? Forget it. With the possible exceptions of the initiated amendment states of Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri, it will be a SCOTUS ruling.

    Keeping my fingers crossed about Minnestoa and Illinois. They are dragging their feet in.
    Minnesota needs to finish its budget, which will be happening within a few weeks. Then they will have the floor debates.

    In Illinois, the insiders are saying we are very nearly there, and a second Republican came out gave a very optimistic view. A vote will be called as soon as the support is secured. My feeling is that they are short only a few votes, maybe four or five.

    The houses of both states are very narrowly divided, but if Maryland serves as a comparable example, it shouldn't be a problem long term.

    I also have to say,if I hear one more person say the people voted on it,41 states affirmed blah blah blah I'll go nuts. Rights of miniorities should NEVER be put up to a majority vote.
    It is political. The people say that either want to shirk responsibility or believe we will lose. They don't want a vote of the people. They want marriage equality to lose.

    We have seen the anti-gay side move their goalposts time and time again. When I first started following the debate in the early 2000s, the running argument from them was that legislatures should decide marriage. Then it was the people. Now when the votes to repeal amendments are proposed, they are saying the new generation of people should not vote because the previous generations's opinion was good enough, even though a decade of the oldest generation has passed and a decade of the newest one has come to voting age.

  31. #31

    Re: Poll Tracks Dramatic Rise In Support for Gay Marriage

    Do not underestimate the behind-the-scenes power of GLBTQ!

  32. #32
    JUB Addict Ninja108's Avatar
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    Re: Poll Tracks Dramatic Rise In Support for Gay Marriage

    It can't be stopped. There will be bumps along the way,but we will prevail. I just hope I'm alive long enough to see it in all 50 states.

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