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  1. #1
    JUB Addict DigitalFudge's Avatar
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    12 states poised to have marriage equality over the next two years; The black demographic is not in the five opposing.

    We all hear about how Hispanics and blacks are against gay marriage by a large margin and that they are helping oppress change, ect ect.


    Minus the fact that blacks take up 12.4 (Give or take a .1) percent of the population and minus the fact that out of that 12 percent only a fraction are able to vote AND minus the fact that out of those who are able to vote only a fraction actually get up and go the polls this rhetoric keeps popping up.


    In fact, out of the demographics listed in this video that aren't specifically white, blacks make up a nominal portion of those individuals (Tea Party members, Republicans, ect ect)





    Video:




    The five groups that oppose equality at a higher percentage than they support it


    Less Educated white people, 56% oppose equality

    People over 65, 58% oppose equality

    Republicans, 69% oppose equality

    Evangelical protestant white people, 73% oppose equality

    Tea Party members, nearly 100% oppose equality




    So, can we be done with not only perpetuating this myth that blacks oppose equality the most, or at a higher rate than anyone else?


    Let alone that blacks have been responsible for stalling change.



    Thank you.



  2. #2
    RazorzEdge88
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    Re: 12 states poised to have marriage equality over the next two years; The black demographic is not in the five opposing.

    Barring a nationwide decision by the Supreme Court, we're probably only looking at about 5, maybe 8 or 9 at the most.

  3. #3
    JockBoy87
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    Re: 12 states poised to have marriage equality over the next two years; The black demographic is not in the five opposing.

    The additional 12-state figure given by Ned Flaherty is unrealistic to say the least. I agree with razorzedge, that an additional nine states in the next two years is the most we can get.

    The remaining legislative battles in blue states are Rhode Island, Illinois, Minnesota, Hawaii, Delaware, and New Jersey. The Supreme Court is also likely to overturn Proposition 8 for California. That will come to a total of 16 states probably in the next four years. In addition, there may be successful initiated constitutional amendments in Oregon, Colorado, Nevada, Michigan, and Ohio, bringing us to 21 states by 2017 at the earliest, and assuming we are 100% successful (unlikely). I do not foresee political support in New Mexico anytime in the foreseeable future, having neither the necessary support in committee nor from the governor.

  4. #4
    PerScientiam AdJustitiam bankside's Avatar
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    Re: 12 states poised to have marriage equality over the next two years; The black demographic is not in the five opposing.

    Quote Originally Posted by DigitalFudge View Post
    The five groups that oppose equality at a higher percentage than they support it


    Less Educated white people, 56% oppose equality

    People over 65, 58% oppose equality

    Republicans, 69% oppose equality

    Evangelical protestant white people, 73% oppose equality

    Tea Party members, nearly 100% oppose equality

    I'd love to see the data. I think it would be unusual for less-educated white people to oppose equality, but not less-educated people of other ethnicity.
    Americans need to keep their guns so they can protect themselves from gun violence just like Nancy Lanza did. And like Chris Kyle did. And like Gabby Giffords did. And like Tom Clements did. And like Michael Piemonte. And Joseph Wilcox.

  5. #5
    PerScientiam AdJustitiam bankside's Avatar
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    Re: 12 states poised to have marriage equality over the next two years; The black demographic is not in the five opposing.

    Here is the report on the research done:

    http://freemarry.3cdn.net/3936016bf7..._lpm6ibxn4.pdf

    White non-college graduates represent another small pocket of opposition. While they oppose the freedom to marry by a wide margin (40% support/56% oppose), all other slices of the electorate support it:
    o Non-white non-college graduates: 54% support/38% oppose
    o White college graduates: 56% support/41% oppose
    o Non-white college graduates: 58% support/35% oppose
    So yes, indeed, this data suggest that being less educated only causes a problem if you're white. People in other ethnicities still get it, even if they do not have post-secondary education.
    Americans need to keep their guns so they can protect themselves from gun violence just like Nancy Lanza did. And like Chris Kyle did. And like Gabby Giffords did. And like Tom Clements did. And like Michael Piemonte. And Joseph Wilcox.

  6. #6
    JohannBessler
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    Re: 12 states poised to have marriage equality over the next two years; The black demographic is not in the five opposing.

    I think that, while the black community in general may oppose gay marriage, they don't see it as a good enough reason to "jump ship".

    The Hispanic community isn't strongly Democratic enough for a person to make a sound judgment about them. (If you remember, they gave a big chunk of support to George Bush.)

  7. #7
    I'm not really a doctor. doctorsun's Avatar
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    Re: 12 states poised to have marriage equality over the next two years; The black demographic is not in the five opposing.

    Can we not argue about the statistics of it all and just be happy that there's a chance that ANY states will be legalizing gay marriage in the near future...assuming the Supreme Court doesn't do it for them?

    My own state of Ohio will more than likely have an issue on the ballot this November to overturn our State amendment banning gay marriage, which at the time of passing in 2004, was one of the strictest ever made into law. It makes me so happy that this initiative even exists. Pass or fail, the fact that there is enough support for it in this state that we get to vote on it at all is amazing and would have been impossible as recently as a year or two ago.
    Someone asked me once how I could know that I'm gay if I've never slept with a woman. I've never shoved shards of glass into my eye, either, but I don't have to give it a shot to know that it's not for me.

  8. #8
    JockBoy87
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    Re: 12 states poised to have marriage equality over the next two years; The black demographic is not in the five opposing.

    Quote Originally Posted by doctorsun View Post
    Can we not argue about the statistics of it all and just be happy that there's a chance that ANY states will be legalizing gay marriage in the near future...assuming the Supreme Court doesn't do it for them?

    My own state of Ohio will more than likely have an issue on the ballot this November to overturn our State amendment banning gay marriage, which at the time of passing in 2004, was one of the strictest ever made into law. It makes me so happy that this initiative even exists. Pass or fail, the fact that there is enough support for it in this state that we get to vote on it at all is amazing and would have been impossible as recently as a year or two ago.
    You are lucky to be in a initiated constitutional amendment state. There are only 23 of them.

    Ohio has experienced a dramatic rise in support for marriage equality in recent years. The most recent Washington Post poll shows 52% majority support. It is definitely time to consider a ballot repeal.

    However, it will be up to FreedomOhio whether it wants to submit the signatures for the 2013 ballot. Interim elections always attract a more conservative cut of the population. They will have to decide by July 3. The presidential election is the best time in my opinion. Though three years away, it is the best shot. It gives you guys more time for opinions to change, to organize, and get a more liberal share of voters. Ohio will still be among the first amendment states to repeal them, probably along with Oregon, Nevada, and Michigan.

  9. #9
    Sex God tigerfan482's Avatar
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    Re: 12 states poised to have marriage equality over the next two years; The black demographic is not in the five opposing.

    Quote Originally Posted by JockBoy87 View Post
    The additional 12-state figure given by Ned Flaherty is unrealistic to say the least. I agree with razorzedge, that an additional nine states in the next two years is the most we can get.

    The remaining legislative battles in blue states are Rhode Island, Illinois, Minnesota, Hawaii, Delaware, and New Jersey. The Supreme Court is also likely to overturn Proposition 8 for California. That will come to a total of 16 states probably in the next four years. In addition, there may be successful initiated constitutional amendments in Oregon, Colorado, Nevada, Michigan, and Ohio, bringing us to 21 states by 2017 at the earliest, and assuming we are 100% successful (unlikely). I do not foresee political support in New Mexico anytime in the foreseeable future, having neither the necessary support in committee nor from the governor.
    Depending on the ruling, if Prop 8 is overturned in California, it will essentially make invalid any state constitution which doesn't allow marriage for same-sex couples.

  10. #10
    JockBoy87
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    Re: 12 states poised to have marriage equality over the next two years; The black demographic is not in the five opposing.

    Quote Originally Posted by tigerfan482 View Post
    Depending on the ruling, if Prop 8 is overturned in California, it will essentially make invalid any state constitution which doesn't allow marriage for same-sex couples.
    Absolutely. Long term outlook is wide open without a definite answer from the Supreme Court.

    Two states that are most likely to be affected are Hawaii and Alaska, each of which had ongoing state court fights when constitutional amendments cut them off in 1998.

    Then there are additionally those states with comprehensive relationship rights, such as Oregon, Nevada, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, and Rhode Island.

    I can't wait until June. Whatever SCOTUS does, it will change everything.

  11. #11
    Slut layton's Avatar
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    Re: 12 states poised to have marriage equality over the next two years; The black demographic is not in the five opposing.

    I wonder if the catholic demographic was included in the study, though I do know most young catholics I have had discussions with do support marriage equality, even if the administration doesn't.

  12. #12
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    Re: 12 states poised to have marriage equality over the next two years; The black demographic is not in the five opposing.

    I'm strongly hoping ( and praying) that the Supreme Court will make gay marriage a nationwide law. If they argue on the basis of fairness and law, I don't see why it wouldn't pass. Most people support gay marriage, according to the last poll.

  13. #13
    PerScientiam AdJustitiam bankside's Avatar
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    Re: 12 states poised to have marriage equality over the next two years; The black demographic is not in the five opposing.

    While each state can set its own constitution, am I correct in thinking they largely serve similar purposes? Similarly structured….similar arrangements at the largest scale? Kind of a same-old-same-old situation from one state to another…we all need governance, we all need to delimit the powers of the governor, set some process for the legislature, yadda yadda...

    Is there any example in US law of a case where two different states have not just different, but contradictory constitutional obligations or prohibitions?

    In the current situation, we have some state constitutions implicitly permitting equal marriage, while others clearly bar it. In other words, "Equality is constitutional" and "Equality is unconstitutional." I wonder if that is unique.

    Regardless, I don't think that can stand. No one cares if each state adopts a different process for the passage of a law. But a fundamental disagreement on "what is a right?" seems too thorny to paper over with talk of "a diversity of political opinion" and states' rights.

    Those states opposed to equal marriage might have got away with it indefinitely if they had said nothing and just done nothing to allow equality. But by actually stating it is "unconstitutional" they set themselves up for a trainwreck vs. all the other states who acknowledge its constitutionality by allowing, passing, or acquiescing to equal marriage.

    I think that in order for California's malignant state constitution to be saved, it will have to be shown that equality is forbidden by the national constitution, and that all the other states were wrong to grant equal marriage. I think that is an insurmountable challenge.
    Last edited by bankside; March 18th, 2013 at 02:41 PM.
    Americans need to keep their guns so they can protect themselves from gun violence just like Nancy Lanza did. And like Chris Kyle did. And like Gabby Giffords did. And like Tom Clements did. And like Michael Piemonte. And Joseph Wilcox.

  14. #14
    JockBoy87
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    Re: 12 states poised to have marriage equality over the next two years; The black demographic is not in the five opposing.

    Quote Originally Posted by bankside View Post
    While each state can set its own constitution, am I correct in thinking they largely serve similar purposes? Similarly structured….similar arrangements at the largest scale? Kind of a same-old-same-old situation from one state to another…we all need governance, we all need to delimit the powers of the governor, set some process for the legislature, yadda yadda...
    The US Constitution requires states to adopt a republican form of government. So far, 49 of them have modeled themselves after the Connecticut Compromise, except 1) the Nebraska legislature is unicameral, and 2) that the Supreme Court ruled that states must have proportionate representation in all legislative chambers.

    Is there any example in US law of a case where two different states have contradictory constitutional obligations or prohibitions?
    A state cannot infringe on the sovereignty of another state, or violate the US Constitution's requirements to honor the rights of other states, but I am sure conflicts happen often. Better ask a scholar more versed in this area of law.

    What it boils down to is some state constitutions clearly permitting equal marriage, while others clearly bar it. In other words, "Equality is constitutional" and "Equality is unconstitutional."

    I don't think that can stand. No one cares if each state adopts a different process for the passage of a law. But a fundamental disagreement on "what is a right?" seems too thorny to paper over with talk of "a diversity of political opinion" and states' rights.
    The federal form of government and the 10th Amendment guarantee that states can generally make their own rules on family law, so long as those laws do not violate basic constitutional rights.

    We are going to find out very soon from the US Supreme Court if that includes marriage equality.

    Those states opposed to equal marriage might have got away with it indefinitely if they had said nothing and just done nothing to allow equality.
    Only the act of denying a license is required to sue the state.

    Note that until 1973, no state had any law banning gay marriage. It was simply public policy and the common law of the courts. It wasn't until 1998 that Alaska and Hawaii passed constitutional bans.

    But by actually stating it is "unconstitutional" they set themselves up for a trainwreck vs. all the other states who acknowledge its constitutionality by allowing, passing, or acquiescing to equal marriage.
    Comity (mutual recognition) is not necessarily guaranteed, even if marriage equality becomes legal in all 50 states.

    I predict that any national mandate to allow same sex marriages will result in passive aggressiveness, e.g. the refusal of some states to recognize same sex marriages from other states, forcing two men or two women to fill out forms referring to bride and groom, etc.

  15. #15
    JohannBessler
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    Re: 12 states poised to have marriage equality over the next two years; The black demographic is not in the five opposing.

    ^I'm not completely sure this will matter in the long run, JockBoy.

    Arkansas recently passed a law that directly contradicts Roe vs. Wade.

  16. #16
    PerScientiam AdJustitiam bankside's Avatar
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    Re: 12 states poised to have marriage equality over the next two years; The black demographic is not in the five opposing.

    Quote Originally Posted by JockBoy87 View Post
    The federal form of government and the 10th Amendment guarantee that states can generally make their own rules on family law, so long as those laws do not violate basic constitutional rights.

    We are going to find out very soon from the US Supreme Court if that includes marriage equality.
    Ahh. This speaks to what I was trying to get at; wasn't sure how to formulate the question correctly.

    "so long as those laws do not violate basic constitutional rights." Well, I say the constitutional dragon has been awakened. Had no state enacted discrimination within its own constitution, governments could have continued to rely on evasion and inertia to avoid dealing with equal marriage. "Well it is just not a priority for the people of our state…" or "the existing family law works for the vast majority of our citizens" or "blather blather blather inaction" and the courts would have had very little purchase on their activities. They would have been able to evade questions about whether any right was infringed simply by changing the subject.

    But by amending their own constitutions, they can't get around the question any more: they're stating directly that This Thing Is Not A Right™ and that elevates it to a direct conflict about a right to equal treatment in what before had been quibbling about process or the priorities of governance.

    The trouble is, for them, other states through their embrace of equality either by the courts or by legislative action or through referenda, have directly said This Thing Is A Right™.

    Brought before the Supreme Court and using the national Constitution to settle the dispute, I don't think the Court will be in a position to say that such a fundamental question as the equal capacity to marry can ever be a right in some places but not in others: a uniform standard must prevail. I think the question comes down to telling California they are wrong or telling Maine they are wrong. And I think they will be unable to tell Maine they're wrong.

    Quote Originally Posted by JockBoy87 View Post
    Only the act of denying a license is required to sue the state.

    True but the State can hide its motives in denying service to an individual under mountains of pettifoggery. "Well the registration form says Male Spouse and Female Spouse, but the state appropriations committee didn't approve funds to reprint the form, and the complainant's case doesn't take into account our duty to exercise fiscal prudence….yadda yadda tip of the iceberg…"

    But when the bigoted states themselves are foolish enough to make it a direct contest between "It's a right" and "It's not a right" I think they'll fail convincingly.
    Americans need to keep their guns so they can protect themselves from gun violence just like Nancy Lanza did. And like Chris Kyle did. And like Gabby Giffords did. And like Tom Clements did. And like Michael Piemonte. And Joseph Wilcox.

  17. #17
    animalius
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    Re: 12 states poised to have marriage equality over the next two years; The black demographic is not in the five opposing.

    Sometimes I find it astonishing what length some people will go through for the sake of political correctness.

    What you are doing is called historical revisionism. You're trying to revise history to make the picture prettier to see.

    It is true that the general public's attitude is changing in our favor across the board. That said, the percentage of blacks in favor of gay marriage has always lagged behind.

    http://features.pewforum.org/same-se...des/slide6.php

    Or all you have to do is look at what happened with prop 8.

    Here's an article that is suppose to be in your favor.

    http://www.sfgate.com/politics/artic...on-3177138.php

    So, even if you take the most optimistic figure (lowest percentage) of blacks supporting prop 8, it would still be well above the average for everyone else.

    Everything I wrote above is just the first part of why I stick it to the black community about this issue.

    The other part is they ought to know better! White people have been living with white privilege for centuries. At least white people have an excuse to not be able to empathize with an oppressed minority group. But come on, black people ought to know better than picking on another minority group.

    Overthrowing one tyrant to become another...

  18. #18
    GiancarloC
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    Re: 12 states poised to have marriage equality over the next two years; The black demographic is not in the five opposing.

    Quote Originally Posted by layton View Post
    I wonder if the catholic demographic was included in the study, though I do know most young catholics I have had discussions with do support marriage equality, even if the administration doesn't.
    That's a good question. I recently posted a poll regarding Catholics on same sex marriage and a majority of them actually do support same sex marriage.

    http://www.politico.com/story/2013/0...618.html?hp=l3

    54% of Catholics support same sex marriage according to this poll, while 38% oppose it.

    Latinos, who are predominantly Catholic... 59% of Latinos support gay marriage, while 32% opposed.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/1...n_2124515.html

    Latinos now support gay marriage more than whites, which is very significant.

  19. #19
    GiancarloC
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    Re: 12 states poised to have marriage equality over the next two years; The black demographic is not in the five opposing.

    Quote Originally Posted by JohannBessler View Post

    The Hispanic community isn't strongly Democratic enough for a person to make a sound judgment about them. (If you remember, they gave a big chunk of support to George Bush.)
    The most Bush ever got was just under 40%, which isn't a majority. Democrats still took 60% of Latinos even in 2004. The trend is showing Latinos moving to democratic. They are almost 75-25% now. They are strongly democratic enough for there to be a sound judgment. Recent polling data that all shows the same thing (55+% of Latinos support gay marriage) is enough to make a sound judgment.
    Last edited by GiancarloC; March 18th, 2013 at 09:09 PM.

  20. #20
    JohannBessler
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    Re: 12 states poised to have marriage equality over the next two years; The black demographic is not in the five opposing.

    ^I hope you're right, GC, I hope you're right.

    The idea of Jeb Bush running for President scares me a little, because from what I saw, Hispanics had a little bit of soft spot for GWB. (I think they connect to the fact that he identifies with Texas, a state traditionally lenient in terms of immigration policy).

    On the other hand, I think Republicans putting forth Marco Rubio as a viable candidate will insult the intelligence of the Latino community. I believe they will feel pandered to. (Am I right?)

    At any rate, I look forward to the time that the Republican Party becomes just a bad memory.

  21. #21
    GiancarloC
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    Re: 12 states poised to have marriage equality over the next two years; The black demographic is not in the five opposing.

    Quote Originally Posted by JohannBessler View Post

    The idea of Jeb Bush running for President scares me a little, because from what I saw, Hispanics had a little bit of soft spot for GWB. (I think they connect to the fact that he identifies with Texas, a state traditionally lenient in terms of immigration policy).
    Not really. The only group that overwhelmingly went to Bush were Cuban-Americans. Not Mexican-Americans. And even republicans are losing Cuban-Americans... who went 50/50 to Obama.

    Jeb Bush has way too much baggage and people will remember how much of a disaster his brother was. Georgie left office with a very low approval rating.

    I think Latinos are more reliable than whites when it comes to gay marriage... at this point in time.

  22. #22
    JohannBessler
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    Re: 12 states poised to have marriage equality over the next two years; The black demographic is not in the five opposing.

    Quote Originally Posted by animalius View Post

    The other part is they ought to know better! White people have been living with white privilege for centuries. At least white people have an excuse to not be able to empathize with an oppressed minority group. But come on, black people ought to know better than picking on another minority group.

    Overthrowing one tyrant to become another...
    This is true among any demographic group, Animalus. It stands as one of the biggest mysteries in human psychology.

    One would think that anybody who has 1)suffered from some kind of misery and 2)overcome it, would stay empathetic towards those who haven't yet succeeded.

    But strangely enough, the opposite usually happens--these people become self-righteous, to the point of callousness. "If I can do it, then they golly well can do it, too, they need to get off their asses and stop feeling sorry for themselves."

    Herman Cain serves as a perfect example, but if you look, you will see this phenomenon everywhere.

    Fortunately, once in a great while, someone who's overcome great adversity develops compassion. Obama is given as a good example of this.

    The reason I point this out to you, Animalus, is that I think you have unfairly targeted the black community for something that every demographic does.

  23. #23
    JohannBessler
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    Re: 12 states poised to have marriage equality over the next two years; The black demographic is not in the five opposing.

    Quote Originally Posted by GiancarloC View Post
    Not really. The only group that overwhelmingly went to Bush were Cuban-Americans. Not Mexican-Americans. And even republicans are losing Cuban-Americans... who went 50/50 to Obama.

    Jeb Bush has way too much baggage and people will remember how much of a disaster his brother was. Georgie left office with a very low approval rating.

    I think Latinos are more reliable than whites when it comes to gay marriage... at this point in time.
    Do you agree that Marco Rubio is an insult to the intelligence of the Latino community?

    Somehow, it seems like a particularly ugly exampe of tokenism to me, but I'm looking at the issue from the outside. What are your feelings?

  24. #24
    GiancarloC
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    Re: 12 states poised to have marriage equality over the next two years; The black demographic is not in the five opposing.

    Quote Originally Posted by JohannBessler View Post
    Do you agree that Marco Rubio is an insult to the intelligence of the Latino community?

    Somehow, it seems like a particularly ugly exampe of tokenism to me, but I'm looking at the issue from the outside. What are your feelings?
    Marco Rubio looks and talks more like a white man... and he talks like a republican... apparently he gets thirsty when he's lying his ass off.

    With democrats making strides even among Cuban-Americans, I'm confident Latinos will be strongly democrat for years to come. The republicans have their balls in the hands of right wing conservatives.

  25. #25
    animalius
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    Re: 12 states poised to have marriage equality over the next two years; The black demographic is not in the five opposing.

    Quote Originally Posted by JohannBessler View Post
    This is true among any demographic group, Animalus. It stands as one of the biggest mysteries in human psychology.

    One would think that anybody who has 1)suffered from some kind of misery and 2)overcome it, would stay empathetic towards those who haven't yet succeeded.

    But strangely enough, the opposite usually happens--these people become self-righteous, to the point of callousness. "If I can do it, then they golly well can do it, too, they need to get off their asses and stop feeling sorry for themselves."

    Herman Cain serves as a perfect example, but if you look, you will see this phenomenon everywhere.

    Fortunately, once in a great while, someone who's overcome great adversity develops compassion. Obama is given as a good example of this.

    The reason I point this out to you, Animalus, is that I think you have unfairly targeted the black community for something that every demographic does.
    I'll accept this. Just don't try to pretend like the black percentage of opposition to gay marriage has never been higher than others.

  26. #26
    JockBoy87
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    Re: 12 states poised to have marriage equality over the next two years; The black demographic is not in the five opposing.

    Quote Originally Posted by JohannBessler View Post
    ^I'm not completely sure this will matter in the long run, JockBoy.

    Arkansas recently passed a law that directly contradicts Roe vs. Wade.
    That's what I meant by passive aggressiveness. If Mississippi or Utah were forced to provide gay marriage, they might just force one of the men to be called "bride," or pass laws making it very difficult to get a same sex marriage as they have done with abortion.

    Quote Originally Posted by bankside View Post
    Ahh. This speaks to what I was trying to get at; wasn't sure how to formulate the question correctly.

    "so long as those laws do not violate basic constitutional rights." Well, I say the constitutional dragon has been awakened. Had no state enacted discrimination within its own constitution, governments could have continued to rely on evasion and inertia to avoid dealing with equal marriage. "Well it is just not a priority for the people of our state…" or "the existing family law works for the vast majority of our citizens" or "blather blather blather inaction" and the courts would have had very little purchase on their activities. They would have been able to evade questions about whether any right was infringed simply by changing the subject.
    It really does not matter how the state has done it. The first challenge under the US Constitution was to the common law of Minnesota in 1971. All the state registrar has to do is just deny the license in order to sue, actually it is required. All of the plaintiffs have gone to get the license denied before suing.

    But by amending their own constitutions, they can't get around the question any more: they're stating directly that This Thing Is Not A Right™ and that elevates it to a direct conflict about a right to equal treatment in what before had been quibbling about process or the priorities of governance.
    I think I see what you are getting at, but state constitutions do not settle federal matters. States are allowed to say what is a right or not in their own laws and constitutions, regardless of their neighbors. That one state has said there is a right, while another has said there is not, does not settle federal constitutionality one iota.

    Also, simply having a common law tradition of unequal marriage constitutes the state's opinion on whether equal marriage is a right or not, just not a constitutional right. Rights do not have to appear in the constitution. Many of the principles behind American jurisprudence are actually found in the Declaration of Independence, a document with no legal weight whatsoever.


    Brought before the Supreme Court and using the national Constitution to settle the dispute, I don't think the Court will be in a position to say that such a fundamental question as the equal capacity to marry can ever be a right in some places but not in others: a uniform standard must prevail. I think the question comes down to telling California they are wrong or telling Maine they are wrong. And I think they will be unable to tell Maine they're wrong.
    That's why some think the ruling will be on technicalities, so it only applies to some states.

    Quote Originally Posted by GiancarloC View Post
    Marco Rubio looks and talks more like a white man... and he talks like a republican... apparently he gets thirsty when he's lying his ass off.

    With democrats making strides even among Cuban-Americans, I'm confident Latinos will be strongly democrat for years to come. The republicans have their balls in the hands of right wing conservatives.
    Palin didn't attract women.

    Rubio won't attact Latinos.

  27. #27
    JohannBessler
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    Re: 12 states poised to have marriage equality over the next two years; The black demographic is not in the five opposing.

    ^I can see this, Jockboy.

    I, a Hillary-supporter, felt profoundly insulted when McCain chose Palin. His motives seemed obvious.

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    Re: 12 states poised to have marriage equality over the next two years; The black demographic is not in the five opposing.

    Quote Originally Posted by GiancarloC View Post
    With democrats making strides even among Cuban-Americans, I'm confident Latinos will be strongly democrat for years to come.
    Cubans voting Democrat has to do mainly with generational differences. Older Cubans (esp Cuban-born ones) vote Republican while the Cubans who favor Democrats are mostly the American-born younger generations.

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    Re: 12 states poised to have marriage equality over the next two years; The black demographic is not in the five opposing.

    Quote Originally Posted by JockBoy87 View Post
    Rubio won't attact Latinos.
    Won't attract Mexicans or Puerto Ricans.

  30. #30
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    Re: 12 states poised to have marriage equality over the next two years; The black demographic is not in the five opposing.

    Quote Originally Posted by bankside View Post
    So yes, indeed, this data suggest that being less educated only causes a problem if you're white. People in other ethnicities still get it, even if they do not have post-secondary education.
    I would guess that less-educated white people are by far the strongest demographic for Fox News, Rush Limbaugh, Mark Levine, etc.
    "All legal U. S. residents who are 18 years or older, shall have an unconditional right to vote." - 28th Amendment, US Constitution?
    "But, hey, who cares about women and their rights when the religious liberty of a nationwide chain of arts and crafts stores is at stake?" - Daily Kos, 30 June 2014
    "I distrust those people who know so well what God wants them to do, because I notice it always coincides with their own desires" - Susan B. Anthony

  31. #31
    GiancarloC
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    Re: 12 states poised to have marriage equality over the next two years; The black demographic is not in the five opposing.

    Quote Originally Posted by JustMe5 View Post
    Cubans voting Democrat has to do mainly with generational differences. Older Cubans (esp Cuban-born ones) vote Republican while the Cubans who favor Democrats are mostly the American-born younger generations.
    And this doesn't say anything? Younger people will make up a larger part of the constituent base, and republicans are pretty much screwed in that regard.

    Won't attract Mexicans or Puerto Ricans.
    You just described over 70% of Latinos in this country. What's your argument?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hispani...s#Demographics

    He won't attract a variety of groups, including Salvadorans, Guatemalans and Dominicans. Rubio has done next to nothing to attract a wide majority of Latinos. And since 63% of Latinos in the US are Mexican-American, that says it all really.

  32. #32
    animalius
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    Re: 12 states poised to have marriage equality over the next two years; The black demographic is not in the five opposing.

    Makes me wonder. If its a generational thing with lib vs cons, wouldnt we expect cons to die out slowly over time? sorry on phone.

  33. #33
    JockBoy87
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    Re: 12 states poised to have marriage equality over the next two years; The black demographic is not in the five opposing.

    Quote Originally Posted by animalius View Post
    Makes me wonder. If its a generational thing with lib vs cons, wouldnt we expect cons to die out slowly over time? sorry on phone.
    Yes. It's one of the reasons why opinion is changing so quickly on marriage equality. While all generations are changing their opinions, the one that is most anti-gay is also dying.

    The opposition doesn't have a prayer. By the end of this decade, practically the entire western hemisphere will have marriage equality. All of Western Europe will have it, and most of America. The only isolated places will probably be rural parts of South America, the Caribbean, and some conservatives states in the US and Mexico. We might also get treated to a few Asian countries such as Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand, or Nepal, but it's too early to say exactly.

  34. #34
    GiancarloC
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    Re: 12 states poised to have marriage equality over the next two years; The black demographic is not in the five opposing.

    Even a traditionally conservative country like Chile is seeing changes in its demographics and that's leading to changes in opinion. They have recently passed protection laws.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-18546587 - This article is from last year, but discusses changes in Chile's traditionally conservative society. One of the most closed in South America at one point. Generational changes. Chileans are opposed to same sex marriage, but favor civil unions. That too will change... as younger generations favor same sex marriages.

    The sad part is a lot of what is going on in Chile recently was sparked by vicious anti-gay attacks that shocked the entire country... it's sad that it took something like that to get people to think again about their views. Chilean President Piņera has basically led the way for changes.

    http://www.economist.com/node/21555943

    I expect to see same sex marriage in Brazil and Colombia soon enough though.

  35. #35
    JockBoy87
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    Re: 12 states poised to have marriage equality over the next two years; The black demographic is not in the five opposing.

    The sad truth is that the motivating basis for hate crimes laws are the most brutal attacks. That is true of every country. The US bill after all was titled after the most memorable victim of hate crimes, a strategy to promote an understanding of why crimes motivated by hate are a unique problem that needs to be addressed by legislation.

    Interestingly, protecting LGBTs from hate crimes is the only relatively uncontroversial area of gay rights legislation. Several conservative states including Texas, Tennessee, Kentucky, Missouri, Nebraska, and Louisiana passed LGBT hate crimes legislation before the Matthew Shepard Act. I'm not surprised that a conservative country such as Chile would have done the same, but I agree anti-discrimination protections are great progress.

  36. #36
    The Journey of a Lifetime Adrock-JD's Avatar
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    Re: 12 states poised to have marriage equality over the next two years; The black demographic is not in the five opposing.

    So, older uneducated religious nutcases? I'd say it speaks highly of us that they aren't on our side.

  37. #37
    JohannBessler
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    Re: 12 states poised to have marriage equality over the next two years; The black demographic is not in the five opposing.

    Quote Originally Posted by animalius View Post
    Makes me wonder. If its a generational thing with lib vs cons, wouldnt we expect cons to die out slowly over time? sorry on phone.
    Quote Originally Posted by JockBoy87 View Post
    Yes. It's one of the reasons why opinion is changing so quickly on marriage equality. While all generations are changing their opinions, the one that is most anti-gay is also dying.

    The opposition doesn't have a prayer. By the end of this decade, practically the entire western hemisphere will have marriage equality. All of Western Europe will have it, and most of America. The only isolated places will probably be rural parts of South America, the Caribbean, and some conservatives states in the US and Mexico. We might also get treated to a few Asian countries such as Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand, or Nepal, but it's too early to say exactly.
    The Millennials.

    I love you guys.

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    Re: 12 states poised to have marriage equality over the next two years; The black demographic is not in the five opposing.

    Quote Originally Posted by GiancarloC View Post
    You just described over 70% of Latinos in this country. What's your argument?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hispani...s#Demographics

    He won't attract a variety of groups, including Salvadorans, Guatemalans and Dominicans. Rubio has done next to nothing to attract a wide majority of Latinos. And since 63% of Latinos in the US are Mexican-American, that says it all really.
    That only shows the number of people from those ethnicities, not the number of people eligible/registered to vote. Regardless, it's pretty telling that in order to win over the Mexican vote (the largest Latino group), a candidate will need to have an immigration policy that's friendly toward illegals. Such is the America of today!

  39. #39
    JockBoy87
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    Re: 12 states poised to have marriage equality over the next two years; The black demographic is not in the five opposing.

    Quote Originally Posted by JohannBessler View Post
    The Millennials.

    I love you guys.
    I do not doubt that, in due time, I will find myself on the side of bigotry on some issue on account of my age and the opinions I grew up with.

  40. #40
    JohannBessler
    Guest

    Re: 12 states poised to have marriage equality over the next two years; The black demographic is not in the five opposing.

    ^The thinking goes, Jockboy, that the Millennials, who grew up with digital data, think in digital terms, and simply cannot process those old racist/homophobic/you-name-it thoughts.

    The change has been rapid and dramatic.

  41. #41
    JockBoy87
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    Re: 12 states poised to have marriage equality over the next two years; The black demographic is not in the five opposing.

    Quote Originally Posted by JohannBessler View Post
    ^The thinking goes, Jockboy, that the Millennials, who grew up with digital data, think in digital terms, and simply cannot process those old racist/homophobic/you-name-it thoughts.

    The change has been rapid and dramatic.
    I don't know that growing up alongside the Internet had much to do with it. My secular education was generically liberal, which in hindsight seems to have been some form of over-correction or perhaps guilty consciences on the part of my educators who had grown up with racism. I think my educators, cognizant of the past, repentant and afraid of its return, saw the opportunity to cement a permanently open-minded society by educating the next generation of thinkers in liberal ideology. If the Internet really does make open minds, I hope I am able to keep up with moral changes.

  42. #42
    GiancarloC
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    Re: 12 states poised to have marriage equality over the next two years; The black demographic is not in the five opposing.

    Quote Originally Posted by JustMe5 View Post
    That only shows the number of people from those ethnicities, not the number of people eligible/registered to vote. Regardless, it's pretty telling that in order to win over the Mexican vote (the largest Latino group), a candidate will need to have an immigration policy that's friendly toward illegals. Such is the America of today!
    Not paying attention. It's pretty much the same when it comes to voters... and what does this prove about your argument? Nothing. 75% of Latinos as a whole voted democrat in the last election. Stop making excuses. and it's not about having immigration policy friendly toward illegals. Stop spouting off Fox News.

  43. #43
    JUB Addict Ninja108's Avatar
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    Re: 12 states poised to have marriage equality over the next two years; The black demographic is not in the five opposing.

    While they won't say it out loud,there are many Republicians who are hoping the Supreme Court will put this issue to bed for them.

  44. #44
    JockBoy87
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    Re: 12 states poised to have marriage equality over the next two years; The black demographic is not in the five opposing.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ninja108 View Post
    While they won't say it out loud,there are many Republicians who are hoping the Supreme Court will put this issue to bed for them.
    Absolutely. I've seen four writers/bloggers this week who agree. I think I posted some links in a CEP thread... but there are so many in there about gay marriage the search would take a long time

    I think state lawmakers hate this issue. They have to. Who likes being swamped with thousands of emails and calls, having to put up with being lobbied again and again, on an issue that impacts very few people, draining time and money away from budget and other issues?

  45. #45
    TheSpectatingLoner
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    Re: 12 states poised to have marriage equality over the next two years; The black demographic is not in the five opposing.

    Quote Originally Posted by bankside View Post
    I'd love to see the data. I think it would be unusual for less-educated white people to oppose equality, but not less-educated people of other ethnicity.
    Yes, because cultural differences have never existed between races.

  46. #46
    JUB Addict DigitalFudge's Avatar
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    Re: 12 states poised to have marriage equality over the next two years; The black demographic is not in the five opposing.

    I have not read nor care about any of what you people are talking about.


    All I know is I'm ready for the gheighs to sweep this nation.




  47. #47

    Re: 12 states poised to have marriage equality over the next two years; The black demographic is not in the five opposing.

    Quote Originally Posted by DigitalFudge View Post
    ....All I know is I'm ready for the gheighs to sweep this nation.


    So when are you going to get married?



    Um... when are you going to get engaged?



    Are you going to pop the question?



    Are there men in your life who want to marry you?



  48. #48
    JUB Addict DigitalFudge's Avatar
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    Re: 12 states poised to have marriage equality over the next two years; The black demographic is not in the five opposing.

    Quote Originally Posted by pat grimshaw View Post
    So when are you going to get married?



    Um... when are you going to get engaged?



    Are you going to pop the question?



    Are there men in your life who want to marry you?






    Nnnnnnnnnnnnnnn;;;;;



    I literally cannot

  49. #49

    Re: 12 states poised to have marriage equality over the next two years; The black demographic is not in the five opposing.

    Quote Originally Posted by animalius View Post
    Sometimes I find it astonishing what length some people will go through for the sake of political correctness.

    What you are doing is called historical revisionism. You're trying to revise history to make the picture prettier to see.

    It is true that the general public's attitude is changing in our favor across the board. That said, the percentage of blacks in favor of gay marriage has always lagged behind.

    http://features.pewforum.org/same-se...des/slide6.php

    Or all you have to do is look at what happened with prop 8.

    Here's an article that is suppose to be in your favor.

    http://www.sfgate.com/politics/artic...on-3177138.php

    So, even if you take the most optimistic figure (lowest percentage) of blacks supporting prop 8, it would still be well above the average for everyone else.

    Everything I wrote above is just the first part of why I stick it to the black community about this issue.

    The other part is they ought to know better! White people have been living with white privilege for centuries. At least white people have an excuse to not be able to empathize with an oppressed minority group. But come on, black people ought to know better than picking on another minority group.

    Overthrowing one tyrant to become another...
    Generalizations are silly and in this case offensive. I couldn't find 2008 black population information, but in 2010 the percentage of blacks in California was 6.6%. It stands to reason that the black population hasn't changed tremendously since 2008, so let's use that figure for the sake of the discussion. Can 6.6% decide a proposition?
    If you don't stand for something, you'll fall for anything.

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