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  1. #1
    JUB Addict andysayshi's Avatar
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    Re: Polls: Who got it right?

    Fascinating info, thanks for posting it. Amazing that Gallup are the worst of the worst. It just goes to show how little can really be predicted with the very small polls used in modern politics. Nate Silver has proven that it takes more hard work than a few hundred phone calls to really gauge the electorate.

  2. #2
    stop the bullshit rareboy's Avatar
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    Re: Polls: Who got it right?

    Some of the pollsters really do need to take another look at their methodology.

  3. #3
    Rambunctiously Pugnacious JayHawk's Avatar
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    Re: Polls: Who got it right?

    This is a connected article about why Romney chose to ignore other forms of reality and why they may be continuing to 'pretend' that they had no idea.

    The article is called "Rethinking Shellshocked Romney"

    It lays out a very convincing argument that Romney knew and he kept it hidden because Republicans risk destroying their money machine.

    The two reason the Romney campaign is sticking with the shellshocked story are:

    Option A: admit that you were operating in a bubble, that your pollsters were making faulty assumptions, and that despite the fact that your pollsters were coming up with numbers that didn't look like anyone else's, you were so reliant on gut feelings about voter enthusiasm that you didn't bother to seek a second opinion.
    Or Option B: admit that your data looked much like everyone else's and that you're smart enough to know that all along that you were losing, but that the rules of the game prevented you from publicly admitting that. That's partially because, via the 'bandwagon effect,' it might depress turnout, but mostly because it would depress contributions from big money donors who don't want to waste their money -- thus becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy because you then wouldn't have the money you'd need to even have a shot at winning.
    I am cynical when it comes to politicians so I would imagine they were well aware they were losing but didn't want the spigot of cash flow to stop... remember before the first debate many wealthy donors were reluctant to part ways with cash on a losing proposition.
    Everyone can be great, because everyone can serve.
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    Rambunctiously Pugnacious JayHawk's Avatar
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    Re: Polls: Who got it right?

    The odd thing is the article gives a couple different examples of the campaign giving away the fact that they knew they were going to lose.

    For instance in the weekend leading up to Tuesday on many shows the same pundits from each campaign were ask chances. Obama's team was thoroughly positive on a win. Romney's camp would say thing like "it is close" and "we are praying" which are things the loser says not the confident winner who is branching out into other states.

    No I think it far more likely that the Romney Campaign and Karl Rove saw the writing on the wall but didn't want to admit that they were wrong so they chose to blame their internals.
    Everyone can be great, because everyone can serve.
    ~ Martin Luther King, Jr.


  5. #5
    Rambunctiously Pugnacious JayHawk's Avatar
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    Re: Polls: Who got it right?

    Yeah there is other opposite evidence such as them ordering a huge fireworks display for the win.

    Perhaps Romney was that easily deceived by those around him... :O
    Everyone can be great, because everyone can serve.
    ~ Martin Luther King, Jr.


  6. #6
    JUB Addict MystikWizard's Avatar
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    Re: Polls: Who got it right?

    I really have to question reports of how much Romney was really "surprised" by the results. Towards the end of the campaign, I really didn't get the impression he really wanted to be President. I don't know if these are just stories or what ... but I honestly don't get the feeling Romney was truly surprised by the results.
    Telling it like it is.

  7. #7
    JUB Addicts Orlandude's Avatar
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    Re: Polls: Who got it right?

    The problem with polls is that don't only sample likely voters or whomever, they shape public opinion.

  8. #8
    JUB Addict CoolBlue71's Avatar
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    Re: Polls: Who got it right?

    Rasmussen Reports is a Republican pollster. No question. It's sad, though, what has become of Gallup, which I sensed for some time had become really fucked up. (New owner?)

  9. #9
    The Boy Next Door LuvFindsAndyHardy's Avatar
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    Re: Polls: Who got it right?

    Quote Originally Posted by CoolBlue71 View Post
    It's sad, though, what has become of Gallup
    They seem to subscribe to the "if it ain't broke..." methodology but they need to update and re-think the way they conduct polling. The problem is that they haven't changed with the times and reliable information can no longer be gathered in the same old ways.

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