Election 2012: Final Predictions

[CoolBlue71]

ELECTION 2012: FINAL PREDICTIONS

No harm in offering final predictions.
Anyone may also use this thread to offer some.


PRESIDENT
◊ Mitt Romney 47.82%
✓ Barack Obama 50.76% (D+2.94; Shift, from 2008: D+4.32)

Key: Red (Republican hold); Light Red (Republican pickup); Blue (Democratic hold); Light Blue (Democratic pickup). (I tend to use dark shades for incumbent and/or incumbent party.)

Map: Obama will go from 28 states, Nebraska #02, and District of Columbia (in 2008) to 26 states and District of Columbia. Reallocation of 365 to 359 deals in a reduction of 27 electoral votes for Obama to win 332 electoral votes. Mitt Romney will the 22 states carried in 2008 by John McCain and win pickups of 2 states (plus Neb. #02) worth 27 electoral votes. Total will be 206 electoral votes.

Shifting: If it was uniform, at R+4.32 (because President Obama won over John McCain nationally by D+7.26), other states that would go from 2008 Democratic to 2012 Republican are: Florida (D+2.81). And, if those polls saying it's essentially tied, were to result in no more than a full percentage point, that's where Virginia (D+6.30) would come in.

The Five Most Instrumental States: Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia. That is, I'm guessing they will be the five to come closest to the national margin [for Obama]. Ia., in particular, has been a roll since 1992.

It should be interesting. If it turns out Barack Obama wins re-election to a second full term, he'd become the first elected with a reduced electoral-vote score since Woodrow Wilson (1916). And he may end up with the lowest margin of victory for an incumbent with re-election.


HOUSE
Republican [Hold]. In 2010, the midterm elections resulted in a GOP pickup where the result was 242 to 193 for Democrats. I figure the Rs will get reduced into the 230s, but it's doubtful Ds will tally 200.

SENATE
Democratic [Hold]. In 2010, Democrats were reduced from 59 to 53 seats. It's looking like there will be a similar number, but there may be a gain of at least one seat.

Key Races (pickups will be noted as well as difference in caucusing):

ARIZONA (Jon Kyl, retiring)
✓ Jeff Flake
◊ Richard Carmona

CONNECTICUT (Joe Lieberman, retiring)
◊ Linda McMahon
✓ Chris Murphy

FLORIDA
◊ Connie Mack
✓ Bill Nelson

INDIANA (Richard Lugar, lost re-nomination; state would not allow him to run as independent)
◊ Richard Murdock
✓ Joe Donnelly (Pickup)

MAINE (Olympia Snowe, retiring)
◊ Charles E. Summers
◊ Cynthia Dill
✓ Angus King (Pickup)

MASSACHUSETTS
◊ Scott Brown
✓ Elizabeth Warren (Pickup)

MISSOURI
◊ Todd Akin
✓ Claire McCaskill

MONTANA [No Call]
◊ Denny Rehberg
◊ Jon Tester

NEBRASKA (Ben Nelson, retiring)
✓ Deb Fisher (Pickup)
◊ Bob Kerrey

NEVADA
✓ Dean Heller
◊ Shelley Berkley

NEW MEXICO (Jeff Bingaman, retiring)
◊ Heather Wilson
✓ Martin Heinrich

NORTH DAKOTA (Kent Conrad, retiring)
✓ Rick Berg (Pickup)
◊ Heidi Heitkamp

OHIO
◊ Josh Mandel
✓ Sherrod Brown

VIRGINIA (Jim Webb, retiring)
◊ George Allen
✓ Tim Kaine

WISCONSIN (Herb Kohl, retiring)
◊ Tommy Thompson
✓ Tammy Baldwin

[frankfrank]

Overanalysis of polls and other factors seem to indicate a result very similar to everything you've posted here, CB. I hope that things don't stray far at all off what is projected here. I am going to be paying most attention to the Montana and Wisconsin SENATE races, especially hoping that Tammy Baldwin keeps her lead. From everything I can find out about her, I believe she will be the best major party senator in a long time.

Bernie Sanders is the best (bar none!!!!! - possibly in the past century or more), but he doesn't belong to any specified party, though he considers himself Socialist (again, I believe, not a specific Party) and caucuses with the Democrats.

[CoolBlue71]

Bernie Sanders is the best (bar none!!!!! - possibly in the past century or more), but he doesn't belong to any specified party, though he considers himself Socialist (again, I believe, not a specific Party) and caucuses with the Democrats.

Agree with you about Bernie. And he'll be easily re-elected to a second full term as the junior U.S. Senator from Vermont. (I did not want to include all Senate races due to wanting to highlight the ones which merit more attention.)

From the above list of U.S. Senate races, No. 1 on my list is wanting to see Elizabeth Warren unseat Scott Brown in Massachusetts. She has run strongly, while he did get desperate and dumb, and so I gave her the check with confidence that she is going to prevail.

By the way: I'm in Michigan. And I just returned a few minutes ago from having voted. (I really wanted to get it out of the way.)

[Sammie13]

Coolblue, my only difference with your final prognostications are:

Colorado -- Romney (wild hair, here, I'm going against the polls)
Florida -- Romney (even if Obama were to receive the most votes, I think the Governor has this state so rigged that Romney will win)

I have, indeed, picked Obama to win NH, VA, IA and OH.

So, 294-244.

Popular vote: Obama 48-47%

[loki81]

generic predictions:

Obama wins the general election and regardless of the actual numbers, it will be hailed as a landslide victory, huge mandate, and a complete vote of support for Obamacare.

Republicans keep the House; Democrats keep the Senate, but lose a seat or two... Nancy Pelosi doesn't run again for minority leader, and the 2016 campaigning starts before midnight on both sides.

[bankside]

I think Americans want Obama to be president, but they also want to make him work for it. Unfortunately the only tool they have available is to threaten voting for Romney and the same band of idiots that screwed up the economy in the first place.

[CoolBlue71]

Coolblue, my only difference with your final prognostications are:

Colorado -- Romney (wild hair, here, I'm going against the polls)
Florida -- Romney (even if Obama were to receive the most votes, I think the Governor has this state so rigged that Romney will win)

I have, indeed, picked Obama to win NH, VA, IA and OH.

So, 294-244.

Popular vote: Obama 48-47%

Disagree about both, especially with Colorado because it's closely connected with Virginia. Thing is, if they split off (because of the national vote being, say, less than a full point) Va. would go red. Comparing the two strictly to each other, Va. would have more red to it than Colo. as the inverse is true that Colo. would have more blue to it than Va. Colorado closes at 9 p.m. ET. Look to a trio of counties from that state to really have the influence of how that state goes: Arapahoe (Littleton), Jefferson (Golden), and Larimer (Fort Collins).

[frankfrank]

Colorado -- Romney (wild hair, here, I'm going against the polls)
Florida -- Romney (even if Obama were to receive the most votes, I think the Governor has this state so rigged that Romney will win)

Yeah, I've already called Florida here for Romney, by election theft, even before today.

Disagree about both, especially with Colorado because it's closely connected with Virginia.

Oh yea, I almost forgot, the old Virgorado trick, haha.

If Virginia goes for Obama, that will be a major relief, especially if coupled with Ohoho. In that case, Romney-Ryan (a/k/a RR, or the Rolls-Royce ticket) are toast.

As for the old (and still current) school chant from my college years way back at the University of Michigan, GO BLUE!!

[CTF]

generic predictions:

Obama wins the general election and regardless of the actual numbers, it will be hailed as a landslide victory, huge mandate, and a complete vote of support for Obamacare.

Republicans keep the House; Democrats keep the Senate, but lose a seat or two... Nancy Pelosi doesn't run again for minority leader, and the 2016 campaigning starts before midnight on both sides.

The Supreme Court ruled in Bush's favor back in 2000, and the Republicans felt like they had a "ringing mandate" to start two wars, and run up the largest deficit in America's History.

The Democrats will still cave either way.

This election just proves not only how short America's attention span is, but also their memory.

If Obama wins it will be four more years of the same.

If Romney wins it will be a consolidation of the "Corporate Oligarchies" power, and the end of our Democracy.

That, or we'll just have a different President.

[Kulindahr]

Perhaps now that Obama has "more flexibility" he can accomplish things like doing away with the "USA PATRIOT" Act.

[loki81]

Perhaps now that Obama has "more flexibility" he can accomplish things like doing away with the "USA PATRIOT" Act.

what?

has Mr. "Let's Go Assassinate American Citizens Without a Trial" given any indication that he's interested in defending civil liberties since taking office?

[CoolBlue71]

Bumping this thread for a moment because I'm glad I called all the states right. And I'm glad I was wrong with the U.S. Senate race in North Dakota. And obviously Montana is retained by the Democrats [Jon Tester]. A good night for the Democrats.