ELECTION 2012: FINAL PREDICTIONS
No harm in offering final predictions.
Anyone may also use this thread to offer some.
◊ Mitt Romney 47.82%
✓ Barack Obama 50.76% (D+2.94; Shift, from 2008: D+4.32)
Key: Red (Republican hold); Light Red (Republican pickup); Blue (Democratic hold); Light Blue (Democratic pickup). (I tend to use dark shades for incumbent and/or incumbent party.)
Map: Obama will go from 28 states, Nebraska #02, and District of Columbia (in 2008) to 26 states and District of Columbia. Reallocation of 365 to 359 deals in a reduction of 27 electoral votes for Obama to win 332 electoral votes. Mitt Romney will the 22 states carried in 2008 by John McCain and win pickups of 2 states (plus Neb. #02) worth 27 electoral votes. Total will be 206 electoral votes.
Shifting: If it was uniform, at R+4.32 (because President Obama won over John McCain nationally by D+7.26), other states that would go from 2008 Democratic to 2012 Republican are: Florida (D+2.81). And, if those polls saying it's essentially tied, were to result in no more than a full percentage point, that's where Virginia (D+6.30) would come in.
The Five Most Instrumental States: Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia. That is, I'm guessing they will be the five to come closest to the national margin [for Obama]. Ia., in particular, has been a roll since 1992.
It should be interesting. If it turns out Barack Obama wins re-election to a second full term, he'd become the first elected with a reduced electoral-vote score since Woodrow Wilson (1916). And he may end up with the lowest margin of victory for an incumbent with re-election.
Republican [Hold]. In 2010, the midterm elections resulted in a GOP pickup where the result was 242 to 193 for Democrats. I figure the Rs will get reduced into the 230s, but it's doubtful Ds will tally 200.
Democratic [Hold]. In 2010, Democrats were reduced from 59 to 53 seats. It's looking like there will be a similar number, but there may be a gain of at least one seat.
Key Races (pickups will be noted as well as difference in caucusing):
ARIZONA (Jon Kyl, retiring)
✓ Jeff Flake
◊ Richard Carmona
CONNECTICUT (Joe Lieberman, retiring)
◊ Linda McMahon
✓ Chris Murphy
◊ Connie Mack
✓ Bill Nelson
INDIANA (Richard Lugar, lost re-nomination; state would not allow him to run as independent)
◊ Richard Murdock
✓ Joe Donnelly (Pickup)
MAINE (Olympia Snowe, retiring)
◊ Charles E. Summers
◊ Cynthia Dill
✓ Angus King (Pickup)
◊ Scott Brown
✓ Elizabeth Warren (Pickup)
◊ Todd Akin
✓ Claire McCaskill
MONTANA [No Call]
◊ Denny Rehberg
◊ Jon Tester
NEBRASKA (Ben Nelson, retiring)
✓ Deb Fisher (Pickup)
◊ Bob Kerrey
✓ Dean Heller
◊ Shelley Berkley
NEW MEXICO (Jeff Bingaman, retiring)
◊ Heather Wilson
✓ Martin Heinrich
NORTH DAKOTA (Kent Conrad, retiring)
✓ Rick Berg (Pickup)
◊ Heidi Heitkamp
◊ Josh Mandel
✓ Sherrod Brown
VIRGINIA (Jim Webb, retiring)
◊ George Allen
✓ Tim Kaine
WISCONSIN (Herb Kohl, retiring)
◊ Tommy Thompson
✓ Tammy Baldwin