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  1. #1
    Execuvette Rolyo85's Avatar
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    Nate Silver: For Romney to Win, Polls Must Have Been Strongly Biased Against Him

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...ed/#more-37099


    Basically what he is saying is that at this point the election is NOT close, and the only way Romney could win is if the polls have been strongly biased against him.

    My argument, rather, is this: we’ve about reached the point where if Mr. Romney wins, it can only be because the polls have been biased against him. Almost all of the chance that Mr. Romney has in the FiveThirtyEight forecast, about 16 percent to win the Electoral College, reflects this possibility.

    Yes, of course: most of the arguments that the polls are necessarily biased against Mr. Romney reflect little more than wishful thinking.

    Nevertheless, these arguments are potentially more intellectually coherent than the ones that propose that the leader in the race is “too close to call.” It isn’t. If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can’t acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
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  2. #2
    GiancarloC
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    Re: Nate Silver: For Romney to Win, Polls Must Have Been Strongly Biased Against Him

    Well even if we take a poll biased towards republicans being Rasmussen they aren't even giving Romney a lead... so he's in trouble. But we'll see. I hope Nate Silver is right. About this and his projection.

  3. #3

    Re: Nate Silver: For Romney to Win, Polls Must Have Been Strongly Biased Against Him

    Silver is creating a face saving way out for himself."It' not my fault, i relied on polls which turned out to be biased." Of course many of the polls are manipulated by overestimating the Democrat turn out. Silver knows that.

  4. #4
    GiancarloC
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    Re: Nate Silver: For Romney to Win, Polls Must Have Been Strongly Biased Against Him

    Creating a face saving way? It's what the fucking polls say. It's not that hard. What polls are overestimating democrat turn out? Democrats have far exceeded Republicans in early voting, Democrats have exceeded Republicans in registrations in key states like Ohio or Florida. Or is this still that stupid pie in the sky idea that Romney will win in a landslide? LMAO. Please.

    Read what Silver again please: "Yes, of course: most of the arguments that the polls are necessarily biased against Mr. Romney reflect little more than wishful thinking."

    It'll hurt the republican mind... the truth dontcha know? More ridiculous wishful thinking.

    Even the shit Rasmussen poll which oversamples Republicans doesn't give Romney any leads.

  5. #5
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    Re: Nate Silver: For Romney to Win, Polls Must Have Been Strongly Biased Against Him

    Quote Originally Posted by Benvolio View Post
    Silver is creating a face saving way out for himself."It' not my fault, i relied on polls which turned out to be biased." Of course many of the polls are manipulated by overestimating the Democrat turn out. Silver knows that.
    Hey Benvolio. Before the election, can you tell us where Nate Silver is wrong in the electoral college? I know you said Romney is going to win by a landslide. Which battleground states do you think he is going to carry?
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    Re: Nate Silver: For Romney to Win, Polls Must Have Been Strongly Biased Against Him

    That's a good explanation of the whole thing. The statement that the 16% chance for Romney winning is a measure of the potential undiscovered and unaccounted bias in the polls is revealing in that it isn't a measure of Romney's paths to success -- it's an indication that Romney has no path to success unless there are several million voters who haven't been measured at all by the polls but will materialize on election day and vote for Romney.

    While that's of course a possible, it's the sort of possibility that at this point will be believed only by conspiracy theorists and pure ideologues.

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

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    Re: Nate Silver: For Romney to Win, Polls Must Have Been Strongly Biased Against Him

    Quote Originally Posted by Just_Believe18 View Post
    Hey Benvolio. Before the election, can you tell us where Nate Silver is wrong in the electoral college? I know you said Romney is going to win by a landslide. Which battleground states do you think he is going to carry?
    only this brave smart soul would think Nate Silver is trying to parse his predictions, and only this brave smart soul would think Silver 'knows better' as if Silver has some kind of hidden agenda when what he said is 100% accurate.

    and Kuli is right about ideologues, that's all some are made up of, pure reckless ideology.


  8. #8

    Re: Nate Silver: For Romney to Win, Polls Must Have Been Strongly Biased Against Him

    Dick Morris is saying Romney will win all of the battleground states save Nevada.

    I'm wondering if he's in on something the rest of us (and pollsters) aren't aware of.

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    Re: Nate Silver: For Romney to Win, Polls Must Have Been Strongly Biased Against Him

    I fully expect that Ohio will go to Romney.

    The Ohio politicians will make sure this happens, by stealing the election in that state.

    No poll has ever been adjusted for partisan, wholesale election fraud and theft.
    Last edited by frankfrank; November 5th, 2012 at 03:21 AM.
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    Re: Nate Silver: For Romney to Win, Polls Must Have Been Strongly Biased Against Him

    307 electoral college votes for Obama, I see.

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    Re: Nate Silver: For Romney to Win, Polls Must Have Been Strongly Biased Against Him

    Fear not, Frankfrank. Even if Obama loses Ohio, there's still so many paths to victory for him. He could lose four of the largest battleground states and STILL win.
    #439th oldest member on JUB.

  12. #12
    GiancarloC
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    Re: Nate Silver: For Romney to Win, Polls Must Have Been Strongly Biased Against Him

    Quote Originally Posted by Constantine View Post
    Dick Morris is saying Romney will win all of the battleground states save Nevada.

    I'm wondering if he's in on something the rest of us (and pollsters) aren't aware of.
    He has to be on dope I think. Another con-artist.

    I don't agree with Frank here. I think Ohio is going to Obama.

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    Re: Nate Silver: For Romney to Win, Polls Must Have Been Strongly Biased Against Him

    Please be right, G...C, please.

    Now I'm hearing something about perhaps 200,000 provisional ballots not being counted until ten days later in Ohio, and I don't trust their Secretary of State...at all.

    I also have this sick feeling that Wisconsin is going to be stolen.
    (1) Romney wins those electoral votes
    (2) it makes Wisconsinite Paul Ryan look good
    (3) They can also see that a lesbian, who of course they hate (Tammy Baldwin), stays out of the Senate.

    And it's obvious that Florida will be stolen. Democratic areas are stuck with impossible huge ballots (perhaps the most massive ballots in American history) and there just aren't enough hours to go around to accommodate everybody.
    Last edited by frankfrank; November 5th, 2012 at 05:03 AM.
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  14. #14
    GiancarloC
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    Re: Nate Silver: For Romney to Win, Polls Must Have Been Strongly Biased Against Him

    Stolen, stolen, stolen... I'm sorry but I just don't see any justification for these ideas. Wisconsin and Ohio are going to Obama. Early voting in Ohio have been overwhelmingly in Obama's favor. I'm not going to engage in fear mongering. I think Nate Silver is right on the money as he usually is.

    Virginia has fallen back into contention... two new polls put Obama ahead by 4% and 1%. In a state where Romney has led for quite some time...

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    Re: Nate Silver: For Romney to Win, Polls Must Have Been Strongly Biased Against Him

    Please be right.

    Or, should I say, MAKE IT STOP...MAKE IT STOP!

    For better or worse, this anxious anticipation will be over two days from now...or will it?

    I still think Obama wins, but I'll also be very surprised if there's not a repeat of something that at least somewhat resembles 2000 [Florida] or 2004 [Ohio].
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  16. #16

    Re: Nate Silver: For Romney to Win, Polls Must Have Been Strongly Biased Against Him

    For an example of how many polls are manipulated to favor Obama, a new CNN national poll has them tied. BUT of 693 likely voters, 41% were Dems, 30% Rep, and 29% Independent. So it give Obama a +11% turn out advantage, far more than he had in 2008. AND the poll shows independents favoring Romney 59% to 37% but he still end only with a tie. Clearly, if Obama does not get his absurd 11% turn out advantage, Romney will win the popular vote, by this poll. But of course, it is only one and a small one at that.
    But the national polls have been doing this all years. It is more than bias,it is manipulation.
    My source is http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Governm...NN-s-D-11-Poll
    I know, I know, you are not allowed to read breitbart because it is not politically correct. So you may be cruisin for a brusin, come Wed morning.

  17. #17

    Re: Nate Silver: For Romney to Win, Polls Must Have Been Strongly Biased Against Him

    Here is a site devoted to unskewing the polls.http://www.unskewedpolls.com/

  18. #18
    GiancarloC
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    Re: Nate Silver: For Romney to Win, Polls Must Have Been Strongly Biased Against Him

    Breitbarf and a "unskewed" polls quackery site. Keep it up with the nonsense!

    http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/poli...FGO/story.html



    I mean seriously... how much more simple does this need to be stated?

    I mean does one even understand why? Totally absurd statements. Rasmussen, which oversamples republicans, doesn't even give Romney the fucking lead.

  19. #19

    Re: Nate Silver: For Romney to Win, Polls Must Have Been Strongly Biased Against Him

    Aren't most polls still using the mix of voters from the 2008 election heavily favoring more democrats in their polling?

    As of this morning it appears that it's going to be a very tight race. It's tied.

    It all depends on who votes -- not who answers the phone in a poll.

    Neither side can say they have it in the bag.

  20. #20
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    Re: Nate Silver: For Romney to Win, Polls Must Have Been Strongly Biased Against Him

    On CNN they showed a professor from some University saying Obama actually has a 98 % chance of winning due to the composition of the electoral college
    Last edited by AngolaZee; November 5th, 2012 at 08:17 AM.

  21. #21
    Execuvette Rolyo85's Avatar
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    Re: Nate Silver: For Romney to Win, Polls Must Have Been Strongly Biased Against Him

    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Springer View Post
    Aren't most polls still using the mix of voters from the 2008 election heavily favoring more democrats in their polling?

    As of this morning it appears that it's going to be a very tight race. It's tied.

    It all depends on who votes -- not who answers the phone in a poll.

    Neither side can say they have it in the bag.
    Well YOURS can't for sure ^_^
    That we are capable only of being what we are, remains our unforgivable sin.
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  22. #22

    Re: Nate Silver: For Romney to Win, Polls Must Have Been Strongly Biased Against Him

    Neither side is confident -- for example why is Obama and his crew campaigning in Minnesota and Pennsylvania on the last day?

    Time to give it a rest and let the people decide.

    Time to relax.

  23. #23
    GiancarloC
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    Re: Nate Silver: For Romney to Win, Polls Must Have Been Strongly Biased Against Him

    Yes, let the people decide and don't throw out registrations and ballots... as part of then national republican vote rigging plan. And Jack, polls aren't biased towards democrats. If you look at it, several polls have been accurate eve if they have more democrats in the sample. Perhaps because MORE DEMOCRATS have been registered to vote than republicans? Logic.

  24. #24
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    Re: Nate Silver: For Romney to Win, Polls Must Have Been Strongly Biased Against Him

    All that remains to be seen is how solid a win he will get. It will really affect the way the two parties behave in the Lame duck session, as well as the new Congress. If the GOP has a defeat and loses seats, even if keeping a majority, it will shake up a few of them. If Obama has a solid 300 plus electoral college vote victory, and that means 270 without florida and Ohio, which could be contested, then the GOP will play ball in the lame duck.

    Giving Obama a solid victory in the Electoral college and the Popular Vote will seal the deal.

    Bachmann is now in a statistical tie with her opponent, and similar unexpected things are going on in the house of reps. No one knows what that's going to look like.
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  25. #25
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    Re: Nate Silver: For Romney to Win, Polls Must Have Been Strongly Biased Against Him

    Florida is already having problems with early voting so we know that state won't be done tomorrow night.

  26. #26

    Re: Nate Silver: For Romney to Win, Polls Must Have Been Strongly Biased Against Him

    Quote Originally Posted by BostonPirate View Post
    All that remains to be seen is how solid a win he will get. It will really affect the way the two parties behave in the Lame duck session, as well as the new Congress. If the GOP has a defeat and loses seats, even if keeping a majority, it will shake up a few of them. If Obama has a solid 300 plus electoral college vote victory, and that means 270 without florida and Ohio, which could be contested, then the GOP will play ball in the lame duck.

    Giving Obama a solid victory in the Electoral college and the Popular Vote will seal the deal.

    Bachmann is now in a statistical tie with her opponent, and similar unexpected things are going on in the house of reps. No one knows what that's going to look like.
    Counting your chickens before they hatch, I see.

    Nothing wrong about being optimistic about your party --- then again there is reality.

  27. #27
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    And it aligns perfectly.


    Or do you believe Romney can win? Who do you think will win and with how much?
    That we are capable only of being what we are, remains our unforgivable sin.
    - Gene Wolfe

  28. #28
    GiancarloC
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    Re: Nate Silver: For Romney to Win, Polls Must Have Been Strongly Biased Against Him

    Yeah... reality... something republicans have serious problems with.

  29. #29
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    Re: Nate Silver: For Romney to Win, Polls Must Have Been Strongly Biased Against Him

    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Springer View Post
    Counting your chickens before they hatch, I see.

    Nothing wrong about being optimistic about your party --- then again there is reality.
    The party I have chosen to support at this time. I am not a member of it. There are more non affiliated voters in this nation right now than republicans, so don't give me crap about whose party is whose. No one can win without the moderate progressives and the progressive repblicans in the center.

    One side eventually gets our Ire or our Trust. Right now the moderates are NOT interested in much of what MITT is selling as of late, because they see his pattern of behavior, and he seems untrustworthy.
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  30. #30
    GiancarloC
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    Re: Nate Silver: For Romney to Win, Polls Must Have Been Strongly Biased Against Him

    BP, I'm convinced many of those voting for Romney don't care about whether he's trustworthy and are just voting for him cause he's not the black guy. But those would be many of the core supporters.

  31. #31
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    Re: Nate Silver: For Romney to Win, Polls Must Have Been Strongly Biased Against Him

    Well,it's nice to know after seven days without power biased crap on BOTH sides still rule the day. Whomever is elected, I will support and give time to show if something can be done to get America moving. In the end, we're ALL in it and the quicker we try to work together and form consensus wherever we can, the better. It's time to stop the eternal campaign. And I mean this as much to those on the right as to the left.... the games of partisan "we are better than you" or "your side is destroying us, only OUR side loves America" don't mean much after reading and hearing about what those people most affected here by Superstorm Sandy have gone through, and in many cases will continue to undergo. We're resilient here in New Jersey and New York and we'll be back stronger than ever... for the most part people have kept their wits about them even when some of our local leadership has failed to show leadership in trying to get things back on track as quickly as possible.(Mayor Bloomberg of NYC...Mayor Jeremiah Healy of my own city, Jersey City...looking right at you!)

    Thankful for the real strength and leadership shown by Governors Chris Christie of New Jersey and Andrew Cuomo of New York...and the strong hand of President Obama. The remarkable cooperation of my famously prickly Republican governor and President Obama heartened me... to some great consternation to the GOP activists Gov. Christie's emphasis on trying to get a handle on the emergencies caused by Sandy, on putting the needs of his constituency here in New Jersey as people rubbed them as walking away from supporting Mitt Romney in these last campaign days. Yet Christie did the right thing and if it hurts him with the activist base of the GOP, I don't think it will concern him one fucking bit. We can use a little more of that.... politics as usual is going to screw us all, and we need people in both parties (as well as independents) who are going to work together wherever possible because mostly what divides most Americans is really only in degree and people can overcome a lot of that. At least disagree respectfully and seek consensus wherever possible. Whatever my opinions on a few particular issues, it's those candidates who will make for more pragmatic, workable governing that I truly support... party and label be damned.
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  32. #32
    GiancarloC
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    Re: Nate Silver: For Romney to Win, Polls Must Have Been Strongly Biased Against Him

    For a rare time I agree with you Sausy... I think every now and then elected officials need to put dignity over partisanship... and that is what both Christie and Obama did with regards to the response to Sandy, which was effective and coherent. While I'm against Christie's party, one could only hope the radicals gets pushed out of his party.

  33. #33
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    Re: Nate Silver: For Romney to Win, Polls Must Have Been Strongly Biased Against Him

    Quote Originally Posted by Sausy View Post
    In the end, we're ALL in it and the quicker we try to work together and form consensus wherever we can, the better. It's time to stop the eternal campaign.
    One problem: Romney and his cohorts aren't interested in working together or having a consensus.

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

  34. #34
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    Re: Nate Silver: For Romney to Win, Polls Must Have Been Strongly Biased Against Him

    Quote Originally Posted by GiancarloC View Post
    While I'm against Christie's party, one could only hope the radicals gets pushed out of his party.
    There are no radicals in the GOP -- radicals want change, and they just want to turn back the clock.

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

  35. #35
    GiancarloC
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    Re: Nate Silver: For Romney to Win, Polls Must Have Been Strongly Biased Against Him

    I meant fringe extremists, not radicals. Fringe extremists control the party... and we see some fringe extremists on this very forum.

    Guys there is quite an update from Nate Silver on his blog...

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...r/nate-silver/

    Obama - 315 electoral votes, Mitt Romney - 222. Chance of winning - 92.2%-7.8%.

    Reason? Florida has flipped to lean Obama. Obama has also solidified in Virginia.

    Lets see if this holds.

  36. #36

    Re: Nate Silver: For Romney to Win, Polls Must Have Been Strongly Biased Against Him

    Tsk tsk, tomorrow is going to be a traumatic experience for Democrats when the Romney landslide hits. The Democrat media which has promoted Obama so agressively has misled you about the polls. Expect Romney's victory speech about 10pm EST.

  37. #37
    GiancarloC
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    Re: Nate Silver: For Romney to Win, Polls Must Have Been Strongly Biased Against Him

    Tsk Tsk... we don't need total bullshit right now. There isn't going to be a Romney landslide, let alone a win. I think republicans should be happy if he gets 240 electoral votes. Republicans have been below par in party registrations in many battleground states... there are more democrats in the US than republicans. Time to open those eyes a bit to the reality.

  38. #38
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    Re: Nate Silver: For Romney to Win, Polls Must Have Been Strongly Biased Against Him

    If Obama gets Florida I will SCREAM



    Gotta give Romney something

  39. #39
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    Re: Nate Silver: For Romney to Win, Polls Must Have Been Strongly Biased Against Him

    He said a Romney landslide...lol.

    Where are you going to go when he loses, here or the conservative forum you hang out at?

    There are two narratives going on right now, and this is something that can be answered, and will be answered.

    All that's left is posturing
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  40. #40
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    Re: Nate Silver: For Romney to Win, Polls Must Have Been Strongly Biased Against Him

    Obama needs to win 272 electoral college votes without florida and ohio, to insure the victory will happen tomorrow night.

    That means he needs Oregon, Nevada, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Arizona and Pensylvania. IF Obama wins those, neither Florida nor Ohio will matter.

    My guess is that we will know Obama is the winner before California polls close, or we won't know for weeks.

    Once it goes late, it will go for days tomorrow. I really hope it's not close.
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  41. #41
    GiancarloC
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    Re: Nate Silver: For Romney to Win, Polls Must Have Been Strongly Biased Against Him

    Quote Originally Posted by BostonPirate View Post
    My guess is that we will know Obama is the winner before California polls close.
    I hope so. WE need to see high turn-outs in urban areas... for sure.

  42. #42
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    Re: Nate Silver: For Romney to Win, Polls Must Have Been Strongly Biased Against Him

    I don't think I've ever seen such a low percentage chance for one candidate to win in an election that seems so close.

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

  43. #43
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    Re: Nate Silver: For Romney to Win, Polls Must Have Been Strongly Biased Against Him

    Quote Originally Posted by BostonPirate View Post
    He said a Romney landslide...lol.

    Where are you going to go when he loses, here or the conservative forum you hang out at?

    There are two narratives going on right now, and this is something that can be answered, and will be answered.

    All that's left is posturing
    I wish welching=ban on here like on some other forums I belong too. I plan on being in bed around 12:30am EST since sadly, Alaska and Hawaii don't matter.

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    Re: Nate Silver: For Romney to Win, Polls Must Have Been Strongly Biased Against Him

    Quote Originally Posted by maxpowr9 View Post
    I wish welching=ban on here like on some other forums I belong too. I plan on being in bed around 12:30am EST since sadly, Alaska and Hawaii don't matter.
    Sure they do. It's like in basketball: you can't say the last ten points don't matter any more than you can say the first ten don't -- they all contribute equally to the total.

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

  45. #45
    JUB Addict DigitalFudge's Avatar
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    Re: Nate Silver: For Romney to Win, Polls Must Have Been Strongly Biased Against Him

    Oh my God, Florida is leaning blue

  46. #46
    GiancarloC
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    Re: Nate Silver: For Romney to Win, Polls Must Have Been Strongly Biased Against Him

    Quote Originally Posted by DigitalFudge View Post
    Oh my God, Florida is leaning blue
    One thing I must note about Florida is democrats have far exceeded republicans in voter registration since the primaries...

    http://election.dos.state.fl.us/nvra/affiliation.asp - 41% Democrat (4.7 million), 36% Republican (4.2 million), 21% NPA (2.5 million). Of course the Non-Partisans are the ones that will tilt this... but since there are more democrats than repubilcans, democrats will have to get less non-partisans to secure a majority.

    We'll see. It'll be interesting. That site only lists for September, but I don't think it's changed much...

  47. #47
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    Re: Nate Silver: For Romney to Win, Polls Must Have Been Strongly Biased Against Him

    Quote Originally Posted by Kulindahr View Post
    There are no radicals in the GOP -- radicals want change, and they just want to turn back the clock.

    Exactly. The Republican party has become a haven of reactionaries.

    Except when it comes to dismantling anything that doesn't serve their own narrow interests.

    This is why today, it is so essential that they get a wake-up call from the voters and are convinced to forge a different pathway to governance that is more balanced and more inclusive.

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    Re: Nate Silver: For Romney to Win, Polls Must Have Been Strongly Biased Against Him

    Quote Originally Posted by AngolaZee View Post
    On CNN they showed a professor from some University saying Obama actually has a 98 % chance of winning due to the composition of the electoral college

    It was probably a professor from Princeton. They have him at that percentage of winning.
    "Rarely do we find men who willingly engage in hard solid thinking. There is an almost universal quest for easy answers and half-baked solutions. Nothing pains some people more than having to think.'' - Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.

  49. #49
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    Re: Nate Silver: For Romney to Win, Polls Must Have Been Strongly Biased Against Him

    We will know in the first hour after the polls close, just about eight hours away, whether this is going to be quick or slow.

    Virginia a fast reporter, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Florida. If Obama takes four of those five the election is over and we are just talking about how bad Romney is losing... similarly if they are split, fifty fifty, and Romney gets Pennsylvania and any other it's a nail biter that will go on all night and into the following days.

    On Ohio......half the expected votes in the state have been cast. Data on who they were is 60 percent democratic party. Who they voted for is unknown still.But for Romney to take Ohio He has to go into this morning at the polls with at least a ten percent advantage, sixty percent, just to break even.

    Then there's Florida. Minus Two percent to dems in Florida for turnout due to rain. That apparently is just the way it's always statistically happened there. The GOP in Florida has no problem getting their voters out to the polling places in the rain.

    in regards to the GOP rank and file vote... Most of it happens on the day of the election.
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    We're gonna sit down and have ourselves a drink! And after we're done - after *I'm* done, you can run upstairs and take whichever one of them little pills makes you feel the best~Dolores Claiborne

  50. #50
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    Re: Nate Silver: For Romney to Win, Polls Must Have Been Strongly Biased Against Him

    Quote Originally Posted by DigitalFudge View Post
    If Obama gets Florida I will SCREAM



    Gotta give Romney something
    Quote Originally Posted by DigitalFudge View Post
    Oh my God, Florida is leaning blue
    That's not enough. I called Florida for Romney already. The goddam election cheaters and fraudsters (such as those who made the toxic decision to have only TWENTY voting locations in massive Miami-Dade, and who have purged hordes of eligible voters) have put the FIX into place. I don't expect Obama to prevail there.

    If Obama takes Florida, I will VERY happily have egg all over my face, and I will gladly eat it, and those will be the most delicious eggs I have ever eaten.
    BOSS: I'm sorry, but I'll have to lay you and Jack off.
    SUE: Can you just jack off? I feel like shit today.

    Things that come to those who wait, are often left over from whoever got there first. (source: pharmaceutical spam 2007)

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