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  1. #51
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Quote Originally Posted by JockBoy87 View Post
    Tammy Baldwin won her Senate race in Wisconsin.

    First gay senator ever

    http://news.yahoo.com/wisconsins-bal...032558256.html
    way to go wisconsin

  2. #52
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    How do we track results for Minnesota?
    Everyone wants to be heard. No one wants to listen.

  3. #53

    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    So it looks like we won Maine!?

    Is anyone else absolutely thrilled?

    Congratulations everyone!!!

  4. #54
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Here is a link to CNN's page on Washington Referendum 74:

    http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/res...e/WA/ballot/01

    It's been stuck at 50% reporting in, 52% Approve, 48% Reject.

    I'll try to locate the other pages and post below.
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  5. #55
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  6. #56
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Quote Originally Posted by AstareGod View Post
    Here is a link to CNN's page on Washington Referendum 74:

    http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/res...e/WA/ballot/01

    It's been stuck at 50% reporting in, 52% Approve, 48% Reject.

    I'll try to locate the other pages and post below.
    The county result map there doesn't look like I expected.

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

  7. #57
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Never thought I would see the day where would win in any state by popular vote.

  8. #58
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Quote Originally Posted by Ninja108 View Post
    Never thought I would see the day where would win in any state by popular vote.
    SCOTUS probably didn't, either.

    BTW, were there any measures against us this time? If not, this is a clear message that the tide has shifted and the court must take that into account as well.

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

  9. #59
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/...53f_story.html

    Maryland approves same-sex marriage law

    Voters in Maryland approved the state’s same-sex marriage law on Tuesday, according to exit polls and early returns. It marked a historic victory for the gay-rights movement nationally, which had lost at the ballot box in more than 30 states.

    The vote, which underscored the country’s rapid evolution on how marriage should be defined, means that gay couples can wed starting Jan. 1 in Maryland, which joins six states and the District where same-sex marriage has been legal.

    Voters in two other states, Maine and Washington, were deciding Tuesday whether to allow gay nuptials, and voters in Minnesota faced a constitutional amendment that would ban same-same sex marriage.

    [...]
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  10. #60
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Quote Originally Posted by Kulindahr View Post
    The county result map there doesn't look like I expected.
    What did you expect it to look like? I pretty much knew the majority of King county would approve it.

    I do wish the maps would not be just solid blue or solid red (or green and grayish-green in this case), but shaded or have a pattern that denotes how much % majority that county or state has. Just having two colors makes it hard to determine what the overall pictures looks like.
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  11. #61
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    So happy for all you guys in Maryland! Still waiting for the final results here in Washington.

  12. #62
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Quote Originally Posted by GiancarloC View Post
    I'm sorry about being so negative before about this... I just had a lot of disappointment regarding Propositions and gay marriage. I wish California had a similar proposition as Maryland to reverse prop 8. We will get it reversed legally regardless.

    This election victory is like several punches into the right wing spin machine.
    Personally, I was a bit pessimistic and did not think we would actually do as well as we seem to be doing now. My hope has been restored.
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  13. #63
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/1...n_2085900.html

    Gay Marriage Victory: Voters Legalize Same-Sex Marriage In Maine And Maryland

    For the first time in history, voters have chosen to legalize same-sex marriage on the ballot. Gay rights advocates are already celebrating this development as a critical victory and a turning point in the fight for marriage equality.

    Since the late '90s, a total of 32 states have held votes on same-sex marriage, and each time, voters have opposed the measure. For opponents of same-sex marriage, this string of victories has been a crucial talking point. As Brian Brown, president of the National Organization for Marriage, the nation's leading group opposing gay marriage, said in a press release this summer: "The American people know in their heart what marriage is, and they have expressed that in the form of over 70 million votes cast in 32 consecutive state elections to preserve marriage as the union of one man and one woman."

    But on Tuesday night, voters in Maine and Maryland chose to legalize gay marriage, according to exit polls and early returns. In Minnesota and Washington, the results were not yet clear as of this writing.

    [...]
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  14. #64
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    I found a page on Washington Secretary of State's website with results from R74. I wondered why the results on CNN's site hadn't changed in a while, so I went poking around for an alternate site. It looks like Washington's own .gov website would be the best source, and it looks like the results have actually been stuck at 52% Approve, 48% Reject with 50% reporting in.

    Since Seattle is eventually where I plan to live, I'm super anxious about the results in Washington.

    http://vote.wa.gov/results/20121106/...x-couples.html
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  15. #65
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    I think the success of equal marriage when put to a vote actually strengthens the persuasiveness of pro-equality arguments in court.

    A state that refuses to give full faith and credit to a legal marriage in another state is now not just thwarting the will of a judge or the will of a legislature, but the will of the people.

    While mob permission is never required to demand one's equality, it does make the process easier in the backwards corners of your country.

  16. #66
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    According to http://vote.wa.gov/results/20121106/Turnout.html, Washington R74's numbers were last updated at 21:28 PST, which was about 1h and 10m earlier than this post. Their next count should be done at 22:30 PST, 10 minutes ago. So... perhaps the numbers will be updated soon. I hope so!
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  17. #67
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    It's beginning to look like there might be a wedding in our backyard next summer. Go Minnesota!
    Everyone wants to be heard. No one wants to listen.

  18. #68
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    I had so many disappointments, for so many years, seeing gay-issue elections ALWAYS going the wrong way. THOSE DAYS HAVE ENDED!!!!!!

    And, though Obama is not the perfect President, he's the very FIRST President that LGBT people have ever had. It appears the Senate has been retained, and it was great to see Todd Akin lose in Missouri, and Toxic Tommy lose in Wisconsin. Tammy Baldwin successfully got a promotion from her at-large constituents across Wisconsin, graduating to the Senate, and I feel that she will be good for humans and other living things.

    It's interesting to see that neighboring (to here) Missouri elected a Democratic governor, but a Republican lieutenant-governor. Other things will continue to reveal themselves as I keep encountering them on this VERY, very happy night.

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  19. #69
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Quote Originally Posted by AstareGod View Post
    What did you expect it to look like? I pretty much knew the majority of King county would approve it.

    I do wish the maps would not be just solid blue or solid red (or green and grayish-green in this case), but shaded or have a pattern that denotes how much % majority that county or state has. Just having two colors makes it hard to determine what the overall pictures looks like.
    On the colors -- good idea.

    I expected a more solid band along I-5.

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

  20. #70
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Quote Originally Posted by GiancarloC View Post
    I'm sorry about being so negative before about this... I just had a lot of disappointment regarding Propositions and gay marriage. I wish California had a similar proposition as Maryland to reverse prop 8. We will get it reversed legally regardless.

    This election victory is like several punches into the right wing spin machine.
    I think it's actually better being reversed in court. If reversals come in several forms, it gives a broader "resume" for SCOTUS to look at.

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

  21. #71

    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    I want to thank Mr Obama for doing the right thing...and I beleive because he stood up for us he finally shifted the balance so we could win the votes we did tonight.

    I also want to acknowledge all of the people who have fought so hard for so many years...every single person who stood up for equality and made a difference...so many of them are no longer with us so I hope wherever they are that they can see or feel that all of their hard work did pay off.....

  22. #72
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Quote Originally Posted by JockBoy87 View Post
    Razor thin in Minnesota. Winnign by 5000 votes.
    The local stations are saying Washington's is too close to call, too.

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

  23. #73
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Quote Originally Posted by JockBoy87 View Post
    That's the tragedy.

    We were all defense in Minnesota. A victory was the fact that it wasn't banned in Minnesota's constitution

    However, the political rammifications can't be understated.

    The rug has been pulled from underneath conservatives on marriage equality. It should pass in a democratic legislature like a knife through butter.

    It makes it much more difficult now for legislators and the governor to vote against.
    I'm toasting the befuddling of the Minnesota Marriage Malarkey Minutes.

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

  24. #74
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Quote Originally Posted by Kulindahr View Post
    On the colors -- good idea.

    I expected a more solid band along I-5.
    If I could tie together Excel and Inkscape I think I could easily do this!

    Cowlitz (18% difference) and Lewis (32% difference) look to be the counties with the largest margins along this corridor. There are other counties with much larger margins, but there are a few closer ones, too. I would have betted the biggest population centers (Seattle, Tacoma, Olympia, and Vancouver) to be more for it than against it, and it seems this is the case. Spokane ... that's a different story.

    NBC News is reporting that Maryland and Maine both passed the amendment allowing same-sex marriage. So whoo!
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  25. #75
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Quote Originally Posted by JockBoy87 View Post
    No word no emails from the bigots.

    Not a peep.
    I think they all went to bed after Ohio turned blue.
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  26. #76
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Huge change on this issue tonight, with all 4 measures passing.

    I think things will pick up pretty quickly from here.

  27. #77
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Indeed they did. And good riddance to them.

  28. #78
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Quote Originally Posted by hotatlboi View Post
    Huge change on this issue tonight, with all 4 measures passing.

    I think things will pick up pretty quickly from here.
    Technically Minnesota's is NOT passing, which is what we want. Minnesota's measure is to approve an amendment to DENY same-sex marriage. Reading from the Huffington Post's particle, with 87% reporting in, this measure did NOT pass, meaning there is NO amendment AGAINST same-sex marriage. 47% Yes (1,213,845 votes) against 51% No (1,316,555)

    http://www.startribune.com/politics/...177544631.html

    Same-sex marriage ban falling short of passage

    The proposed marriage amendment to the Minnesota Constitution appeared to be falling short of passage early Wednesday morning.

    With a chunk of precincts in Minneapolis still not counted because of technical glitches, support for the amendment had been trailing throughout the night. Final numbers were not available at the time this edition went to press, but the amendment to ban same-sex marriage had never crossed the crucial 50 percent barrier for all votes cast. Heading into Election Day, recent polls had shown the measure a dead heat, but also showed amendment support edging downward for weeks.

    Amendment supporters and opponents had spent the last week in an all-out blitz to fire up their diverse and fragile coalitions across the state, stringing together supporters of all ages, religious faiths and political persuasions and on Tuesday night, neither was giving an inch.

    [...]
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  29. #79
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    http://minnesota.publicradio.org/dis...age-amendment/

    Marriage amendment defeated

    Minnesota voters have defeated the amendment against same-sex marriage.

    With nearly 88 percent of the state's precincts reporting, just over 47 percent of voters backed the amendment. More than half opposed it and another 1 percent left the question blank on their ballots.

    To win, the amendment would have had to garner at least 50 percent of all votes cast in the election.

    The results culminated a battle begun in spring 2011 when the Legislature put the measure on the ballot.

    The election result doesn't change Minnesota law but it means the constitution won't include language defining marriage as between one man and one woman.

    [...]
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Oh, to be a fly on Kalley Yanta's wall right now. Or better yet - Brian Brown or Tony Perkins ^_^ After all the hateful Christian Love in The Four, and especially Minnesota, I've been having an hour long full-body orgasm of gloating while marriage equality was winning in state after state.
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  31. #81
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    I have been a little behind.

    Watching ABC News: Maine and Maryland voted in support of same-sex marriage. The state of Washington is not yet determined. Minnesota said no to banning same-sex marriage.

    One poster said it wasn't going to happen. I said if Maryland can carry for the president by 24 points (from 2008), the Democratic votes there should deliver favorably on this issue. Glad they have!

    Colorado and Washington voted to legalize marijuana.

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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    It is so great to see all of this exceed the early-in-the-week expectations! to say that I am pleasantly surprised is the biggest understatement I've made about anything in months.

    I haven't had any exposure to the TV and radio media in Maine, Maryland, Minnesota, and Washington - during the most recent period leading up to this election. I assume there were blitzes of negative media attention, ads, scare tactics, etc. all over these states during the final two or three weeks.

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  33. #83
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Quote Originally Posted by JockBoy87 View Post
    I think NOM is shocked.

    There is no word from any of the anti gay bigots.

    They are shocked to the core.

    Their psyche and will to fight is destroyed.

    They lost everything tonight.
    Not for long. They'll keep fighting in order to "save the country". As they see it, as long as they fight, God won't send punishments to destroy America.

    As if America were so special....

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

  34. #84
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Hey, AstareGod. This gives you more of a reason to come be with me in Washington.
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  35. #85

    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Quote Originally Posted by GiancarloC View Post
    I'm sorry about being so negative before about this... I just had a lot of disappointment regarding Propositions and gay marriage. I wish California had a similar proposition as Maryland to reverse prop 8. We will get it reversed legally regardless.

    This election victory is like several punches into the right wing spin machine.
    Prop 8 will likely be dead and buried in a matter of weeks.

  36. #86
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Quote Originally Posted by Just_Believe18 View Post
    Hey, AstareGod. This gives you more of a reason to come be with me in Washington.
    As if I needed another reason! I know nothing is official in Washington yet regarding marriage, but I'm pushing so hard on this I swear I'm burning calories.
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  37. #87
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    I am still in shock. ALL FOUR went our way! Yes, a GRAND SLAM!!!!

    BOSS: I'm sorry, but I'll have to lay you and Jack off.
    SUE: Can you just jack off? I feel like shit today.

    "I distrust those people who know so well what God wants them to do, because I notice it always coincides with their own desires" - Susan B. Anthony

    If Mary gave birth to Jesus, and Jesus is the Lamb of God, did Mary have a little lamb?

  38. #88
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Well done to all those who supported the cause of human rights in the US.

  39. #89
    Execuvette Rolyo85's Avatar
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Hahaha, NOM - having spent 5 million dollars on bigotry nationwide - are riding the waaambulance and bitching that it's the money's fault because they were outspent. Not true, bitches, it's the fact that people are sick of your hatred. But of course, money is all they know and all they really care about, so that's what they'd think.

    I wonder if Brian Brown cried again last night like when he lost NY ^_^
    That we are capable only of being what we are, remains our unforgivable sin.
    - Gene Wolfe

  40. #90
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Quote Originally Posted by JockBoy87 View Post
    Well the wind is knocked out of them...

    Now it will be impossible to stop marriage equality in Oregon, Hawaii, Rhode Island, Delaware, Illinois, New Jersey, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan.
    Wouldn't it be awesome to see it passed in half those in two years?

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

  41. #91
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Also, all those times that Scalia might want to overturn an appelate court decision in favour of equality, he can no longer claim to be "correcting the excesses of judge-made law" or some such nonsense. He is at least partially defanged.

  42. #92
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Quote Originally Posted by RazorzEdge88 View Post
    .... But if SCOTUS decides to leave the Prop 8 case in its current, "California-only" status, the current marriage equality case going through MN court could be final word there for quite some time. ....
    I think this is what they will do, without opinion. That would be the path of least resistance, inflame the fewest, and leave it as a state's rights issue. In their mind that would postpone such a contentious decision: this court has shown little inclination to expand social liberty.
    Last edited by palbert; November 7th, 2012 at 02:45 PM.

  43. #93
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Quote Originally Posted by palbert View Post
    I think this is what they will do, without opinion. That would be the path of least resistance, inflame the fewest, and leave it as a state's rights issue. In their mind that would postpone such a contentious decision: this court has shown little inclination to expand social liberty.
    Also, they will allow the lower courts' decisions to stand based solely on the California constitution. If they uphold based on the US Constitution they will de facto invalidate 30 states "anti" laws.

  44. #94
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    Yay Illinois!
    That we are capable only of being what we are, remains our unforgivable sin.
    - Gene Wolfe

  45. #95
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Quote Originally Posted by palbert View Post
    Also, they will allow the lower courts' decisions to stand based solely on the California constitution. If they uphold based on the US Constitution they will de facto invalidate 30 states "anti" laws.
    That would surprise me. It's coming to them as a question of U.S. constitutional law, so to dodge that question they'd have to hear the case and specifically state there's no (US) constitutional issue. If they just don't hear it, then the (US) constitutional argument which prevailed before the lower court will stand... for and in the terms the lower court established. In effect, as I understand the situation, that will limit the effect to California, but it will apply that constitutional rule to California, not just the state constitution.

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

  46. #96
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    If I look back 3 years, Americans were talking about "gay marriage" and "the definition of something sacred."

    Today, you're talking about "equal marriage" and "the definition of something civil."

    I'm not surprised at the success; that's how it rolled out here too. I am delighted at how far you've come.

  47. #97
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Quote Originally Posted by JockBoy87 View Post
    ^^^ The conversation and tactics have changed more than you know.

    This article has all of our latest campaign secrets:

    http://www.slate.com/articles/news_a...gy.single.html
    excellent article.

  48. #98
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    We won this time because we were better prepared. Not only were commercials of normal gay families shown but a great deal of effort was also made in showing the lies behind the NOM scare tactics that worked in California and so many other states.
    Unless they've been brainwashed by fundamentalists, more and more young people don't care about gay marriage anymore. And as the older bigots die off,gay marriage will be a reality at some point.

  49. #99
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Quote Originally Posted by JockBoy87 View Post
    ^^^ The conversation and tactics have changed more than you know.

    This article has all of our latest campaign secrets:

    http://www.slate.com/articles/news_a...gy.single.html
    Superb article.

    I think Oregon was impacted this time because half the population or more has been hearing the ads for the Washington battle. That's a good foundation to build on.

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

  50. #100

    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Quote Originally Posted by JockBoy87 View Post
    After pro-equality pickups in the Rhode Island Gen. Assembly, we are waiting word from the anti-gay state senate president on moving a marriage equality bill.

    http://www.necn.com/11/07/12/RI-gay-...59c794188fb9ae
    I fully expect she'll bring it to a vote. After Maine voters legalized it, they are the only New England state to not have marriage equality. This election has made is crystal clear what happens to politicians who don't pass marriage equality in states where it's popular. Should she block it, she will meet a similar fate.

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