Predictions on marriage ballot measures

[Rolyo85]

If we win even one, it's a dramatic change in conversation - a state where the PEOPLE voted FOR gay rights is ten times more important for the movement than any actual win this year. Though I'd be surprised if we don't win at least two of the four. Last Minnesota poll shows us winning with 52 against and 45 for.

[JayHawk]

I predict the state I currently live in will not ever entertain or pass a equality ballot measure.... nor will Missouri.

[JockBoy87]

I predict the state I currently live in will not ever entertain or pass a equality ballot measure.... nor will Missouri.

It will take a generation at least in the plains and the lower Mississippi Valley.

Politics is also likely more difficult to change than popular opinion. There is evidence however that once popular opinion is over 60% in many countries, the politics usually starts flowing on marriage equality. I count the same happening in the states.

[Kulindahr]

It will pass in Washington. We beat the bigots last time for our domestic partnerships and we'll beat them again. I am very optimistic! My friend is so sick and stressed out right now. He was miserable when I went and saw him last night because he thinks it won't pass in Washington (a lot of red signs in our city). However, I told him it will pass. Washington will do the right thing.

You'd better -- your neighbors to the south are counting on you!

[Kulindahr]

He's had his green signs ripped up and replaced with red ones, and it's really brought him down to think that people in his neighborhood hate him and his partner for who they are. And I've been encouraging to them all this time, and trying to give them hope that it is going to pass because all the right signs are here.
....
Well, I have no apology for you.

One truly sad thing is that about half of the people who will vote against equality report that they have friends and family who are gay. They somehow manage to shut out of their minds that by voting against equality they're effectively tightening the chains on those friends and family members. If they had any moral backbone at all, before voting they'd go to each of those friends and/or family members and say, "I'm voting to keep you from having the same freedoms I have. I'm voting to keep you from having your loving relationships recognized the same way mine is. I'm voting for religious discrimination, because I think Jesus made a mistake when He said to love my neighbors as myself -- that doesn't apply to gays."

And you're right -- there's no room for apology for the hate.

[Kulindahr]

I'm really sorry I hope your friends can get married soon.

I hope I can maybe someday get married too.

Have you sent a check to support that effort in Washington? or asked your dad to do so?

[Kulindahr]

There is no knowing what will happen in Minnesota. If everyone answers the question, the amendment will be approved 54-46. However, there is usually a large percentage of people who do not. If that percentage is 5%, as often quoted, the amendment will fail.

Odd, that in California apathy brought discrimination, but in Minnesota helps equality.


I wish Oregon had that provision about constitutional amendments! We get such idiotic proposals because people know their measures can be passed by less than a majority of voters.

[Kulindahr]

No doubt. I feel it everyday, believe me. Heterosexuals by a wide majority hate us (except for the condescending topically 'gay friendly' crowd), always will. One more thing: gay marriage approval won't change a thing unless of course one is living under a grand illusion, but it is still in the right direction.

A man walking along the seashore after a storm caught up with a girl who had just managed to scoop up a stranded crab and toss it back in the water. Pointing down the beach, he noted all the other stranded crabs, and said, "It doesn't make a difference". Watching the one scuttle through the shallows, she replied, "It made a difference to that one."

[T-Rexx]

If we win even one, it's a dramatic change in conversation - a state where the PEOPLE voted FOR gay rights is ten times more important for the movement than any actual win this year.

I agree. It would be wonderful to win at least one!

Though I'd be surprised if we don't win at least two of the four. Last Minnesota poll shows us winning with 52 against and 45 for.

I wish I could agree. I'll believe a victory when I see it.

The experience with gay rights polling is that it overestimates support by ~6%. The experience is also that effectively ALL of the undecideds [100 - (#supporters + #opponents)] vote against gay rights. If you apply that formula to Minnesota, then we have ~46% real support vs. 45% favoring passage. But there are 3% undecided (100 - (52 + 45)). That would put supporters of the constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage at ~48% (vs. ~46% against).

I hope that analysis is very wrong, and that Minnesota voters will do the right thing. But, I find it hard to be optimistic. We have never won this fight. Ever. Not anywhere in America.

It will take a generation at least in the plains and the lower Mississippi Valley.

Politics is also likely more difficult to change than popular opinion. There is evidence however that once popular opinion is over 60% in many countries, the politics usually starts flowing on marriage equality. I count the same happening in the states.

Yes, the 60% number is critical. That fits with the ~6% overestimation of support and the undecided vote breaking against us. 60% - 6% - 3% to 4% leaves us with 50% to 51% support. And that's enough to change things. But, less than 60% support in the polls may not be enough.

I think that Obama's change of heart and public endorsement of gay marriage has been enormously, enormously helpful. That should help to change some people's minds. But, I agree. It will be another generation before many parts of America are ready.

[RazorzEdge88]

I wish I could agree. I'll believe a victory when I see it.

The experience with gay rights polling is that it overestimates support by ~6%.

Based on what? Some of the state polls in California right before the election were pretty much on point. Ditto Maine.

[JockBoy87]

^^^

The 6% figure refers to underestimation of opposition, not overestimation of support, which is about 2% typically.

Did you see the DailyKos article on statistics? Remarkably consistent trend.

[Kulindahr]

^^^

The 6% figure refers to underestimation of opposition, not overestimation of support, which is about 2% typically.

Did you see the DailyKos article on statistics? Remarkably consistent trend.

That 6% represents cultural and personal conservatism: when in doubt, oppose change.

[scream4ever]

So I calculated the projected final results using the Daily Kos formula (average out polls of likely voters post Labor Day, add 6 points to the opposition, take away 2 points from the support), and this is what I got:

Washington: 51.89% YES, 46.26% NO

Maine: 51.73% YES, 48.21% NO

Minnesota: 53.2% YES, 45.8% NO (amendment banning same-sex marriage)

I decided not to do Maryland simple because of a lack of polling compared to the others and because the accuracy of some were called into question.

[JockBoy87]

That 6% represents cultural and personal conservatism: when in doubt, oppose change.

Quite right.

It's more difficult to affect change than to maintain the status quo.

So I calculated the projected final results using the Daily Kos formula (average out polls of likely voters post Labor Day, add 6 points to the opposition, take away 2 points from the support), and this is what I got:

Washington: 51.89% YES, 46.26% NO

Maine: 51.73% YES, 48.21% NO

Minnesota: 53.2% YES, 45.8% NO (amendment banning same-sex marriage)

I decided not to do Maryland simple because of a lack of polling compared to the others and because the accuracy of some were called into question.

Thanks. That's more detailed than what I figured but it will be nice to see this confirmed Tuesday night.

I'm really hoping for a nice 5% blank answers in MN.

In MD, we're just too weak. It'll be shot down, but probably not by more than in CA or ME.

[JockBoy87]

Brian Brown in an email is now saying a victory for us will not have much impact.

Good sign.

[RazorzEdge88]

Brian Brown in an email is now saying a victory for us will not have much impact.

Good sign.

Very good sign. Preemptive damage control.

To expound on scream4ever's post, here's a good piece at DailyKos on all the pre-election polling:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/1...and-Washington

[JockBoy87]

Very good sign. Preemptive damage control.

Precisely

Having ME and CA back will shock their psyche into believing inevitability. There is nothing they can do , no legal countermeasure, no way to defeat us in the end. Count on the damage control being dramatic and profusely exaggerated.

To expound on scream4ever's post, here's a good piece at DailyKos on all the pre-election polling:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/1...and-Washington

Good link.

We're looking at a CA - ME style loss in Maryland. It's a loss but not damning. This will be on the ballot again here in 2016.

[RazorzEdge88]

I don't know, Jockboy. The thing barely passed the House this time, with a lot of hand-wringing. I think we'd need changes in the House if there's any hope in passing it again.

[JockBoy87]

I don't know, Jockboy. The thing barely passed the House this time, with a lot of hand-wringing. I think we'd need changes in the House if there's any hope in passing it again.

Every year we get more and more delegates on our side.

In 2015 we will have it handily, especially if we win more states and ballots. It will put pressure on Maryland.

[RazorzEdge88]

Every year we get more and more delegates on our side.

Not in 2010 we didn't. Plus, if you compare 2012-2016 to every other year before 2012, you're ignoring that X-factor that is the oncoming trepidation borne out of a ballot box loss in 2012.

[JockBoy87]

Not in 2010 we didn't. Plus, if you compare 2012-2016 to every other year before 2012, you're ignoring that X-factor that is the oncoming trepidation borne out of a ballot box loss in 2012.

It didn't stop Maine from passing local then statewide non-discrimination acts, despite many losses at the ballot box.

It took 28 years but they did it.

[JockBoy87]

[BostonPirate]

Good luck to all you guys whose state is holding elections on marriage equality.

[maxpowr9]

I just talked to my friend at UMaine Presque (in the middle of nowhere I know), and she says that the marriage equality amendment will be down to the wire, within a percentage point.

[JockBoy87]

Maryland has 29% of precincts in

we are 51-49... a difference of 15000 votes



in other news, our Dream Act is going strong at 60-40

[hotatlboi]

Winning in Maine by 5% with 22% in.

http://maineelections.bangordailynews.com

[JockBoy87]

Tammy Baldwin won her Senate race in Wisconsin.

First gay senator ever

http://news.yahoo.com/wisconsins-bal...032558256.html

[JockBoy87]

A clean sweep is looking possible...

[JockBoy87]

still winning in MD

at 80% we have 52-48

[Kensei]

Where can I see these updates? There's nothing on Prop 8 TT or NOM at this hour.

I'll just google news it.

[Red Storm]

Tammy Baldwin won her Senate race in Wisconsin.

First gay senator ever

http://news.yahoo.com/wisconsins-bal...032558256.html

way to go wisconsin

[sixthson]

How do we track results for Minnesota?

[JockBoy87]

How do we track results for Minnesota?

I like the Star Tribune

scream4ever might be busy with his campaign party in Minnesota

[Kensei]

So it looks like we won Maine!?

Is anyone else absolutely thrilled?

Congratulations everyone!!!

[JockBoy87]

Still projected to have a clean sweep.

[Kien]

Maryland projected to pass marriage equality.

Go MD! Time to marry jockboy.

[JockBoy87]

Maryland projected to pass marriage equality.

Go MD! Time to marry jockboy.

Luv ya Kien gimme a kiss Maryland boy

[AstareGod]

Here is a link to CNN's page on Washington Referendum 74:

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/res...e/WA/ballot/01

It's been stuck at 50% reporting in, 52% Approve, 48% Reject.

I'll try to locate the other pages and post below.

[RazorzEdge88]

This is awesome!!!!

[AstareGod]

Maryland:

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/res...e/MD/ballot/01

Minnesota:

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/res...e/MN/ballot/01

Maine:

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/res...e/ME/ballot/01

[JockBoy87]

We're living the dream people.

It doesn't get better than this.

[Kulindahr]

Here is a link to CNN's page on Washington Referendum 74:

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/res...e/WA/ballot/01

It's been stuck at 50% reporting in, 52% Approve, 48% Reject.

I'll try to locate the other pages and post below.

The county result map there doesn't look like I expected.

[Ninja108]

Never thought I would see the day where would win in any state by popular vote.

[Kulindahr]

Never thought I would see the day where would win in any state by popular vote.

SCOTUS probably didn't, either.

BTW, were there any measures against us this time? If not, this is a clear message that the tide has shifted and the court must take that into account as well.

[JockBoy87]

SCOTUS probably didn't, either.

BTW, were there any measures against us this time? If not, this is a clear message that the tide has shifted and the court must take that into account as well.

Minnesota is the closest race so far. It's a constitutional amendment to ban marriage equality.

We're winning it narrowly so far...

[AstareGod]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/...53f_story.html

Maryland approves same-sex marriage law

Voters in Maryland approved the state’s same-sex marriage law on Tuesday, according to exit polls and early returns. It marked a historic victory for the gay-rights movement nationally, which had lost at the ballot box in more than 30 states.

The vote, which underscored the country’s rapid evolution on how marriage should be defined, means that gay couples can wed starting Jan. 1 in Maryland, which joins six states and the District where same-sex marriage has been legal.

Voters in two other states, Maine and Washington, were deciding Tuesday whether to allow gay nuptials, and voters in Minnesota faced a constitutional amendment that would ban same-same sex marriage.

[...]

[GiancarloC]

Oh my fucking goodness... gay marriage has passed in Maryland! That's awesome We won as an LGBT community... BIG TIME!

[AstareGod]

The county result map there doesn't look like I expected.

What did you expect it to look like? I pretty much knew the majority of King county would approve it.

I do wish the maps would not be just solid blue or solid red (or green and grayish-green in this case), but shaded or have a pattern that denotes how much % majority that county or state has. Just having two colors makes it hard to determine what the overall pictures looks like.

[JockBoy87]

Oh my fucking goodness... gay marriage has passed in Maryland! That's awesome We won as an LGBT community... BIG TIME!

It's unbelievable. I am in a state of shock and tears.

More shocking, the opinion polls were ON TARGET!!

[GiancarloC]

It's unbelievable. I am in a state of shock and tears.

More shocking, the opinion polls were ON TARGET!!

I'm sorry about being so negative before about this... I just had a lot of disappointment regarding Propositions and gay marriage. I wish California had a similar proposition as Maryland to reverse prop 8. We will get it reversed legally regardless.

This election victory is like several punches into the right wing spin machine.