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  1. #51
    Execuvette Rolyo85's Avatar
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    If we win even one, it's a dramatic change in conversation - a state where the PEOPLE voted FOR gay rights is ten times more important for the movement than any actual win this year. Though I'd be surprised if we don't win at least two of the four. Last Minnesota poll shows us winning with 52 against and 45 for.
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  2. #52
    Rambunctiously Pugnacious JayHawk's Avatar
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    I predict the state I currently live in will not ever entertain or pass a equality ballot measure.... nor will Missouri.
    Everyone can be great, because everyone can serve.
    ~ Martin Luther King, Jr.


  3. #53
    JockBoy87
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Quote Originally Posted by JayHawk View Post
    I predict the state I currently live in will not ever entertain or pass a equality ballot measure.... nor will Missouri.
    It will take a generation at least in the plains and the lower Mississippi Valley.

    Politics is also likely more difficult to change than popular opinion. There is evidence however that once popular opinion is over 60% in many countries, the politics usually starts flowing on marriage equality. I count the same happening in the states.

  4. #54
    Bammer's Papa
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Quote Originally Posted by Just_Believe18 View Post
    It will pass in Washington. We beat the bigots last time for our domestic partnerships and we'll beat them again. I am very optimistic! My friend is so sick and stressed out right now. He was miserable when I went and saw him last night because he thinks it won't pass in Washington (a lot of red signs in our city). However, I told him it will pass. Washington will do the right thing.
    You'd better -- your neighbors to the south are counting on you!

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

  5. #55
    Bammer's Papa
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Quote Originally Posted by Just_Believe18 View Post
    He's had his green signs ripped up and replaced with red ones, and it's really brought him down to think that people in his neighborhood hate him and his partner for who they are. And I've been encouraging to them all this time, and trying to give them hope that it is going to pass because all the right signs are here.
    ....
    Well, I have no apology for you.
    One truly sad thing is that about half of the people who will vote against equality report that they have friends and family who are gay. They somehow manage to shut out of their minds that by voting against equality they're effectively tightening the chains on those friends and family members. If they had any moral backbone at all, before voting they'd go to each of those friends and/or family members and say, "I'm voting to keep you from having the same freedoms I have. I'm voting to keep you from having your loving relationships recognized the same way mine is. I'm voting for religious discrimination, because I think Jesus made a mistake when He said to love my neighbors as myself -- that doesn't apply to gays."

    And you're right -- there's no room for apology for the hate.

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

  6. #56
    Bammer's Papa
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Quote Originally Posted by JayQueer View Post
    I'm really sorry I hope your friends can get married soon.

    I hope I can maybe someday get married too.
    Have you sent a check to support that effort in Washington? or asked your dad to do so?

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

  7. #57
    Bammer's Papa
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Quote Originally Posted by JockBoy87 View Post
    There is no knowing what will happen in Minnesota. If everyone answers the question, the amendment will be approved 54-46. However, there is usually a large percentage of people who do not. If that percentage is 5%, as often quoted, the amendment will fail.
    Odd, that in California apathy brought discrimination, but in Minnesota helps equality.


    I wish Oregon had that provision about constitutional amendments! We get such idiotic proposals because people know their measures can be passed by less than a majority of voters.

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

  8. #58
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Quote Originally Posted by bendted View Post
    No doubt. I feel it everyday, believe me. Heterosexuals by a wide majority hate us (except for the condescending topically 'gay friendly' crowd), always will. One more thing: gay marriage approval won't change a thing unless of course one is living under a grand illusion, but it is still in the right direction.
    A man walking along the seashore after a storm caught up with a girl who had just managed to scoop up a stranded crab and toss it back in the water. Pointing down the beach, he noted all the other stranded crabs, and said, "It doesn't make a difference". Watching the one scuttle through the shallows, she replied, "It made a difference to that one."

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

  9. #59
    JUB Addict T-Rexx's Avatar
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Quote Originally Posted by Rolyo85 View Post
    If we win even one, it's a dramatic change in conversation - a state where the PEOPLE voted FOR gay rights is ten times more important for the movement than any actual win this year.
    I agree. It would be wonderful to win at least one!

    Quote Originally Posted by Rolyo85 View Post
    Though I'd be surprised if we don't win at least two of the four. Last Minnesota poll shows us winning with 52 against and 45 for.
    I wish I could agree. I'll believe a victory when I see it.

    The experience with gay rights polling is that it overestimates support by ~6%. The experience is also that effectively ALL of the undecideds [100 - (#supporters + #opponents)] vote against gay rights. If you apply that formula to Minnesota, then we have ~46% real support vs. 45% favoring passage. But there are 3% undecided (100 - (52 + 45)). That would put supporters of the constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage at ~48% (vs. ~46% against).

    I hope that analysis is very wrong, and that Minnesota voters will do the right thing. But, I find it hard to be optimistic. We have never won this fight. Ever. Not anywhere in America.

    Quote Originally Posted by JockBoy87 View Post
    It will take a generation at least in the plains and the lower Mississippi Valley.

    Politics is also likely more difficult to change than popular opinion. There is evidence however that once popular opinion is over 60% in many countries, the politics usually starts flowing on marriage equality. I count the same happening in the states.
    Yes, the 60% number is critical. That fits with the ~6% overestimation of support and the undecided vote breaking against us. 60% - 6% - 3% to 4% leaves us with 50% to 51% support. And that's enough to change things. But, less than 60% support in the polls may not be enough.

    I think that Obama's change of heart and public endorsement of gay marriage has been enormously, enormously helpful. That should help to change some people's minds. But, I agree. It will be another generation before many parts of America are ready.

  10. #60
    RazorzEdge88
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Quote Originally Posted by T-Rexx View Post
    I wish I could agree. I'll believe a victory when I see it.

    The experience with gay rights polling is that it overestimates support by ~6%.
    Based on what? Some of the state polls in California right before the election were pretty much on point. Ditto Maine.

  11. #61
    JockBoy87
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    ^^^

    The 6% figure refers to underestimation of opposition, not overestimation of support, which is about 2% typically.

    Did you see the DailyKos article on statistics? Remarkably consistent trend.

  12. #62
    Bammer's Papa
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Quote Originally Posted by JockBoy87 View Post
    ^^^

    The 6% figure refers to underestimation of opposition, not overestimation of support, which is about 2% typically.

    Did you see the DailyKos article on statistics? Remarkably consistent trend.
    That 6% represents cultural and personal conservatism: when in doubt, oppose change.

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

  13. #63

    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    So I calculated the projected final results using the Daily Kos formula (average out polls of likely voters post Labor Day, add 6 points to the opposition, take away 2 points from the support), and this is what I got:

    Washington: 51.89% YES, 46.26% NO

    Maine: 51.73% YES, 48.21% NO

    Minnesota: 53.2% YES, 45.8% NO (amendment banning same-sex marriage)

    I decided not to do Maryland simple because of a lack of polling compared to the others and because the accuracy of some were called into question.

  14. #64
    JockBoy87
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Quote Originally Posted by Kulindahr View Post
    That 6% represents cultural and personal conservatism: when in doubt, oppose change.
    Quite right.

    It's more difficult to affect change than to maintain the status quo.

    Quote Originally Posted by scream4ever View Post
    So I calculated the projected final results using the Daily Kos formula (average out polls of likely voters post Labor Day, add 6 points to the opposition, take away 2 points from the support), and this is what I got:

    Washington: 51.89% YES, 46.26% NO

    Maine: 51.73% YES, 48.21% NO

    Minnesota: 53.2% YES, 45.8% NO (amendment banning same-sex marriage)

    I decided not to do Maryland simple because of a lack of polling compared to the others and because the accuracy of some were called into question.
    Thanks. That's more detailed than what I figured but it will be nice to see this confirmed Tuesday night.

    I'm really hoping for a nice 5% blank answers in MN.

    In MD, we're just too weak. It'll be shot down, but probably not by more than in CA or ME.

  15. #65
    JockBoy87
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Brian Brown in an email is now saying a victory for us will not have much impact.

    Good sign.

  16. #66
    RazorzEdge88
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Quote Originally Posted by JockBoy87 View Post
    Brian Brown in an email is now saying a victory for us will not have much impact.

    Good sign.
    Very good sign. Preemptive damage control.

    To expound on scream4ever's post, here's a good piece at DailyKos on all the pre-election polling:

    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/1...and-Washington

  17. #67
    JockBoy87
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Quote Originally Posted by RazorzEdge88 View Post
    Very good sign. Preemptive damage control.
    Precisely

    Having ME and CA back will shock their psyche into believing inevitability. There is nothing they can do , no legal countermeasure, no way to defeat us in the end. Count on the damage control being dramatic and profusely exaggerated.

    To expound on scream4ever's post, here's a good piece at DailyKos on all the pre-election polling:

    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/1...and-Washington
    Good link.

    We're looking at a CA - ME style loss in Maryland. It's a loss but not damning. This will be on the ballot again here in 2016.
    Last edited by JockBoy87; November 5th, 2012 at 01:50 PM.

  18. #68
    RazorzEdge88
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    I don't know, Jockboy. The thing barely passed the House this time, with a lot of hand-wringing. I think we'd need changes in the House if there's any hope in passing it again.

  19. #69
    JockBoy87
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Quote Originally Posted by RazorzEdge88 View Post
    I don't know, Jockboy. The thing barely passed the House this time, with a lot of hand-wringing. I think we'd need changes in the House if there's any hope in passing it again.
    Every year we get more and more delegates on our side.

    In 2015 we will have it handily, especially if we win more states and ballots. It will put pressure on Maryland.

  20. #70
    RazorzEdge88
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Quote Originally Posted by JockBoy87 View Post
    Every year we get more and more delegates on our side.
    Not in 2010 we didn't. Plus, if you compare 2012-2016 to every other year before 2012, you're ignoring that X-factor that is the oncoming trepidation borne out of a ballot box loss in 2012.

  21. #71
    JockBoy87
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Quote Originally Posted by RazorzEdge88 View Post
    Not in 2010 we didn't. Plus, if you compare 2012-2016 to every other year before 2012, you're ignoring that X-factor that is the oncoming trepidation borne out of a ballot box loss in 2012.
    It didn't stop Maine from passing local then statewide non-discrimination acts, despite many losses at the ballot box.

    It took 28 years but they did it.

  22. #72
    JockBoy87
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures


  23. #73
    Ijubbinatti BostonPirate's Avatar
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Good luck to all you guys whose state is holding elections on marriage equality.
    http://www.justusboys.com/forum/signaturepics/sigpic345672_2.gif

    We're gonna sit down and have ourselves a drink! And after we're done - after *I'm* done, you can run upstairs and take whichever one of them little pills makes you feel the best~Dolores Claiborne

  24. #74
    JUB Addict maxpowr9's Avatar
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    I just talked to my friend at UMaine Presque (in the middle of nowhere I know), and she says that the marriage equality amendment will be down to the wire, within a percentage point.

  25. #75
    JockBoy87
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Maryland has 29% of precincts in

    we are 51-49... a difference of 15000 votes



    in other news, our Dream Act is going strong at 60-40
    Last edited by JockBoy87; November 6th, 2012 at 08:28 PM.

  26. #76
    JUB Addict hotatlboi's Avatar
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Winning in Maine by 5% with 22% in.

    http://maineelections.bangordailynews.com

  27. #77
    JockBoy87
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Tammy Baldwin won her Senate race in Wisconsin.

    First gay senator ever

    http://news.yahoo.com/wisconsins-bal...032558256.html

  28. #78
    JockBoy87
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    A clean sweep is looking possible...

  29. #79
    JockBoy87
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    still winning in MD

    at 80% we have 52-48

  30. #80

    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Where can I see these updates? There's nothing on Prop 8 TT or NOM at this hour.

    I'll just google news it.

  31. #81
    In the air tonight
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Quote Originally Posted by JockBoy87 View Post
    Tammy Baldwin won her Senate race in Wisconsin.

    First gay senator ever

    http://news.yahoo.com/wisconsins-bal...032558256.html
    way to go wisconsin

  32. #82
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    How do we track results for Minnesota?
    Everyone wants to be heard. No one wants to listen.

  33. #83
    JockBoy87
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Quote Originally Posted by sixthson View Post
    How do we track results for Minnesota?
    I like the Star Tribune

    scream4ever might be busy with his campaign party in Minnesota

  34. #84

    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    So it looks like we won Maine!?

    Is anyone else absolutely thrilled?

    Congratulations everyone!!!

  35. #85
    JockBoy87
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Still projected to have a clean sweep.

  36. #86
    Kien
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Maryland projected to pass marriage equality.

    Go MD! Time to marry jockboy.

  37. #87
    JockBoy87
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Quote Originally Posted by Kien View Post
    Maryland projected to pass marriage equality.

    Go MD! Time to marry jockboy.
    Luv ya Kien gimme a kiss Maryland boy

  38. #88
    Sex God AstareGod's Avatar
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Here is a link to CNN's page on Washington Referendum 74:

    http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/res...e/WA/ballot/01

    It's been stuck at 50% reporting in, 52% Approve, 48% Reject.

    I'll try to locate the other pages and post below.
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  39. #89
    RazorzEdge88
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    This is awesome!!!!

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    Sex God AstareGod's Avatar
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    Brad's Search - 70,000 words and counting!

  41. #91
    JockBoy87
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    We're living the dream people.

    It doesn't get better than this.

  42. #92
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Quote Originally Posted by AstareGod View Post
    Here is a link to CNN's page on Washington Referendum 74:

    http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/res...e/WA/ballot/01

    It's been stuck at 50% reporting in, 52% Approve, 48% Reject.

    I'll try to locate the other pages and post below.
    The county result map there doesn't look like I expected.

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

  43. #93
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Never thought I would see the day where would win in any state by popular vote.

  44. #94
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Quote Originally Posted by Ninja108 View Post
    Never thought I would see the day where would win in any state by popular vote.
    SCOTUS probably didn't, either.

    BTW, were there any measures against us this time? If not, this is a clear message that the tide has shifted and the court must take that into account as well.

    "Thirty-one* states allow all qualified citizens to carry concealed weapons. In those states, homosexuals should embark on organized efforts to become comfortable with guns, learn to use them safely and carry them. They should set up Pink Pistols task forces, sponsor shooting courses and help homosexuals get licensed to carry. And they should do it in a way that gets as much publicity as possible. "

    --Jonathan Rauch, Salon Magazine, March 13, 2000

    *the number is now forty

  45. #95
    JockBoy87
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Quote Originally Posted by Kulindahr View Post
    SCOTUS probably didn't, either.

    BTW, were there any measures against us this time? If not, this is a clear message that the tide has shifted and the court must take that into account as well.
    Minnesota is the closest race so far. It's a constitutional amendment to ban marriage equality.

    We're winning it narrowly so far...

  46. #96
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/...53f_story.html

    Maryland approves same-sex marriage law

    Voters in Maryland approved the state’s same-sex marriage law on Tuesday, according to exit polls and early returns. It marked a historic victory for the gay-rights movement nationally, which had lost at the ballot box in more than 30 states.

    The vote, which underscored the country’s rapid evolution on how marriage should be defined, means that gay couples can wed starting Jan. 1 in Maryland, which joins six states and the District where same-sex marriage has been legal.

    Voters in two other states, Maine and Washington, were deciding Tuesday whether to allow gay nuptials, and voters in Minnesota faced a constitutional amendment that would ban same-same sex marriage.

    [...]
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  47. #97
    GiancarloC
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Oh my fucking goodness... gay marriage has passed in Maryland! That's awesome We won as an LGBT community... BIG TIME!

  48. #98
    Sex God AstareGod's Avatar
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Quote Originally Posted by Kulindahr View Post
    The county result map there doesn't look like I expected.
    What did you expect it to look like? I pretty much knew the majority of King county would approve it.

    I do wish the maps would not be just solid blue or solid red (or green and grayish-green in this case), but shaded or have a pattern that denotes how much % majority that county or state has. Just having two colors makes it hard to determine what the overall pictures looks like.
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  49. #99
    JockBoy87
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Quote Originally Posted by GiancarloC View Post
    Oh my fucking goodness... gay marriage has passed in Maryland! That's awesome We won as an LGBT community... BIG TIME!
    It's unbelievable. I am in a state of shock and tears.

    More shocking, the opinion polls were ON TARGET!!

  50. #100
    GiancarloC
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    Re: Predictions on marriage ballot measures

    Quote Originally Posted by JockBoy87 View Post
    It's unbelievable. I am in a state of shock and tears.

    More shocking, the opinion polls were ON TARGET!!
    I'm sorry about being so negative before about this... I just had a lot of disappointment regarding Propositions and gay marriage. I wish California had a similar proposition as Maryland to reverse prop 8. We will get it reversed legally regardless.

    This election victory is like several punches into the right wing spin machine.

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