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Thread: Is it coming

  1. #1
    Pococuranté belamo's Avatar
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    Is it coming

    In the past thirteen years, every time (like two ) there has been a surge by the hundreds in a matter of months in the Dow index, it has the prelude of a serious downturn.
    Bah, whatever it be, it would get me here, stranded of The Other Side of the Pond...

  2. #2

    Re: Is it coming

    This I don't know. However, last week I got out of the market. Totally.
    I'm perfectly happy for the forseeable future earning whatever the negligible interest rate is. I figure I can always return after the next disaster.

  3. #3
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    Re: Is it coming

    What you are seeing is normal market correction. Companies start to report profits or some other good news is announced, investors start getting excited, and stock prices start increasing. Eventually they reach a point where they start to get overpriced, and profit takers start to sell, driving down the price. If the sell off is accompanied or precipitated by "bad" economic news, the DOW JONES industrial average can fall quickly.

    You also have to think in terms of percentages, not just absolute amounts. For a while there, we were seeing the DOW increase or decrease 300 or 400 points in a day, which seems like a lot in absolute terms, but wasn't a hugely significant change in percentage terms.

    Stocks are meant to be a long-term investment. They're not meant to be held for 6 months and then cashed in like a CD. If you potentially need quick access to your funds or are just completely risk averse, then stick with something like a CD (certificate of deposit). Investments like savings accounts and even Treasury Bills are almost a waste because you're losing out on interest potential, but are fine if you're evaluating other, better, more long-term options.

  4. #4
    Pococuranté belamo's Avatar
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    Re: Is it coming

    Quote Originally Posted by TommyTrojan View Post
    What you are seeing is normal market correction. Companies start to report profits or some other good news is announced, investors start getting excited, and stock prices start increasing. Eventually they reach a point where they start to get overpriced, and profit takers start to sell, driving down the price. If the sell off is accompanied or precipitated by "bad" economic news, the DOW JONES industrial average can fall quickly.
    Right, but you and I know very well that that story is the mere justification of only a part of the whole story, which is more complex than that...

    Quote Originally Posted by TommyTrojan View Post

    You also have to think in terms of percentages, not just absolute amounts. For a while there, we were seeing the DOW increase or decrease 300 or 400 points in a day, which seems like a lot in absolute terms, but wasn't a hugely significant change in percentage terms.
    That's why my observation is not about the amount, as you seem to assume in what you write, but the relative When I talked about a greater acceleration, even within a general context of great acceleration, as in the late 1990s, I meant precisely the greater increase in a shorter amount of time, not any judgment about how great the absolute or even the percentual amount may be.

    Quote Originally Posted by TommyTrojan View Post
    Stocks are meant to be a long-term investment. They're not meant to be held for 6 months and then cashed in like a CD. If you potentially need quick access to your funds or are just completely risk averse, then stick with something like a CD (certificate of deposit). Investments like savings accounts and even Treasury Bills are almost a waste because you're losing out on interest potential, but are fine if you're evaluating other, better, more long-term options.
    In connection with my paragraph above, with the OP and with your first observation, my curiosity is precisely about that movement, that irregular, exuberant trend in what is supposed to be a more solid, regular, and hence slower building-up process.

    Do you think, as many happily assumed four years ago that the next twenty or thirty years will bring something even remotely similar to what were the past twenty and thirty years? It's not a rethorical question, I actually expect some comment on it.

  5. #5
    Pococuranté belamo's Avatar
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    Re: Is it coming

    Quote Originally Posted by belamo View Post
    In the past thirteen years, every time (like two ) there has been a surge by the hundreds in a matter of months in the Dow index, it has been the prelude of a serious downturn.
    Bah, whatever it be, it would get me here, stranded ofn The Other Side of the Pond...

  6. #6
    aww I wanted to explode looseliam's Avatar
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    Re: Is it coming

    That's all? I can handle that.

    When I read the thread title I thought you might be visiting the US.

    Give a man a fish, he'll eat for a day.
    Give a man religion, and he'll starve praying for a fish.

  7. #7
    Pococuranté belamo's Avatar
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    Re: Is it coming

    Quote Originally Posted by looseliam View Post
    That's all? I can handle that.

    When I read the thread title I thought you might be visiting the US.
    What for? A cousin of mine travels there sometime for work but... me?... I wonder what could the US want me for to be doing there RIGHT NOW... I haven't even finished some blasted controversial but eye-opening, thought-provoking and tolerably well-written book that I could offer

  8. #8
    aww I wanted to explode looseliam's Avatar
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    Re: Is it coming

    Quote Originally Posted by belamo View Post
    What for? A cousin of mine travels there sometime for work but... me?... I wonder what could the US want me for to be doing there RIGHT NOW... I haven't even finished some blasted controversial but eye-opening, thought-provoking and tolerably well-written book that I could offer
    Mid-western whores? I dunno. =]

    Give a man a fish, he'll eat for a day.
    Give a man religion, and he'll starve praying for a fish.

  9. #9
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    Re: Is it coming

    Quote Originally Posted by belamo View Post
    That's why my observation is not about the amount, as you seem to assume in what you write, but the relative When I talked about a greater acceleration, even within a general context of great acceleration, as in the late 1990s, I meant precisely the greater increase in a shorter amount of time, not any judgment about how great the absolute or even the percentual amount may be.
    No, you clearly wrote:

    "there has been a surge by the hundreds in a matter of months in the Dow index"

    I don't see anything about your statement being relative. All I see is your usage of the word "hundreds" which I think most people would see as an absolute amount. My point was simply that there is a big difference between a 300 point increase or decrease when the DOW is at 2000 versus when it's at 12,000.

    Are you looking for a simple one word answer to a very complicated question? Then no, I don't think we are heading for another stock market crash. I think we are slowly but surely coming out of this "Great Recession" in the US and there is pent-up demand for goods and services that will lead to slow growth over the following months and years.

    Of course, this is subject to the EU keeping its $hit together and Europe not falling off the map into depression, which seems to be a matter of taking it day-by-day.

    I will agree that we are in a period of much faster upswings and downswings in the DOW JONES, specifically, much of which has been brought on by computer trading that is set to automatically conduct trades under certain criteria and can complete many more trades faster than humans every could. So yes, there will be much more fluctuation in the markets on a day by day basis, but people really shouldn't be looking at the stock market on a day by day basis. Stocks are meant to be long-term investments and I think the future outlook for the American economy over the next year, the next 5 years, and the next 20-30 years is good.

  10. #10
    Pococuranté belamo's Avatar
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    Re: Is it coming

    Quote Originally Posted by looseliam View Post
    Mid-western whores? I dunno. =]
    Erm... I was talking about what I may have to offer, in other words, what the US might want FROM ME... I do know, and very well, what I can find and would like to enjoy for the rest of my life in the USA (even with the Next Great Awakening looming over the US constitutional system). But right now I am not even an alien Spic to them... I am just a poor cyberplasmic projection on American computer screens.

    Damn, my English may be broken but not fucking shattered... I more than suspect that all those misunderstandings and "dishonesties" perceived in me do not so much come from what I ACTUALLY SAY, but from what others suppose or expect me to say

  11. #11
    Pococuranté belamo's Avatar
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    Re: Is it coming

    Quote Originally Posted by TommyTrojan View Post
    No, you clearly wrote:

    "there has been a surge by the hundreds in a matter of months in the Dow index"

    I don't see anything about your statement being relative. All I see is your usage of the word "hundreds" which I think most people would see as an absolute amount. My point was simply that there is a big difference between a 300 point increase or decrease when the DOW is at 2000 versus when it's at 12,000.

    Are you looking for a simple one word answer to a very complicated question? Then no, I don't think we are heading for another stock market crash. I think we are slowly but surely coming out of this "Great Recession" in the US and there is pent-up demand for goods and services that will lead to slow growth over the following months and years.

    Of course, this is subject to the EU keeping its together and Europe not falling off the map into depression, which seems to be a matter of taking it day-by-day.

    I will agree that we are in a period of much faster upswings and downswings in the DOW JONES, specifically, much of which has been brought on by computer trading that is set to automatically conduct trades under certain criteria and can complete many more trades faster than humans every could. So yes, there will be much more fluctuation in the markets on a day by day basis, but people really shouldn't be looking at the stock market on a day by day basis. Stocks are meant to be long-term investments and I think the future outlook for the American economy over the next year, the next 5 years, and the next 20-30 years is good.
    At first it was fun, but hell now I DO hate facepalming...

    Let's try it again: I didn't say or imply any sort of relativism, but a compounding of data, which you somehow may take as "relativism" from the moment you seem to be able to consider either just quantity or just period, both separately. It's not extraordinary that you find it hard to read any sort of relativism in me, because I consider it far more pernicious than even the most extreme and wacky sort of dogmatism, religious or of any other sort. But you are right about how people may perceive it if they don't care to actually read what is written... but I should be getting used to that.

    What I have been referring to is not just the hundreds, as you can read when I talked of the late 1990s... I might have been specificed in that phrase, VERY late 1990s, but in the rest of my post I made a CLEAR AND EXPLICIT reference to the fact of a greater acceleration even within a general frame of acceleration:
    Quote Originally Posted by belamo View Post
    That's why my observation is not about the amount, as you seem to assume in what you write, but the relative When I talked about a greater acceleration, even within a general context of great acceleration, as in the late 1990s, I meant precisely the greater increase in a shorter amount of time, not any judgment about how great the absolute or even the percentual amount may be.

    You may still say that that was not in the OP, and there you would be right, but NOW you may not be questioning that absence in the OP, but in the post in which I CLEARLY pointed it out.

    As for the rest of your post, if I had wanted clear, one-word answers, I would not even bother to be throwing cybermessages in a cyberbottles to the cybernet. The market crash in 1929 was not the explanation for the whole GD, so I don't expect that the crisis that was triggered four years ago, and that is brewing in the global pot will come from a new, deeper market crash. I was just calling for threads of thought, that's that.

  12. #12
    Pococuranté belamo's Avatar
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    Re: Is it coming

    As for EU, it was always clear to me, and definitely from 2005, that it will end up like this:

    But I'd rather not ponder much over the future and "destiny" of America either... http://www.asimovreviews.net/BookCoversFullSize/106.jpg

  13. #13
    Do that 2 me 1 more time BINOWGAYLATER's Avatar
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    Re: Is it coming

    Is it coming? well, if you rub it just right -- YES --

    but as for the market -- I got back in in June - and everything went to hell in a handbasket the next day - and has been pretty much shit since then -
    I'm 15% down from 8 months ago so I'm holding on. As I get back to even or plus -- i'll bail on some of my very "insigniicant holdings. My real money is managed by a guy with lots and lots of letters after his name - - and the checks come every month -- so I don't have to worry about it --
    All I mess with now is a little play money -- 4 digits - ony one comma..

    If I were a smart guy - I'd be making money on the down days too.
    "Do that to me one more time, once is never enough with a man like you!"

  14. #14
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    Re: Is it coming

    there bloody coreection goin on world ova with popcorn provide if it help
    cause tulips few centuys keep doin same shit

    ^ Correction! ^
    *OOH *
    ^ Correction ^
    * OOH *

    but not da folk make it

    so methinks da little boys playin world monopoly ans da public so aware taday ( tittters )

    no worrrys

    ha

  15. #15
    Pococuranté belamo's Avatar
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    Re: Is it coming

    Ok, just to finish off this thread before it sinks [more or less ] definitely into oblivion.

    My observation pointed to the fact (apparent, if you want to consider it that way ) that a greater increase, relatively to a period of several previous years, in the Dow index during a period about or rather inferior to twelve months, seemed to be the sign of an "exuberance", luxuriance or however you want to call it of a speculative character, masking fundamental deficiencies in what is called "real economy".
    About the attention to day to day data that Tommy referred to above, we could say exactly the same thing to the indicators concerning employment, consumer spending, et al., and wonder if those positive news actually represent a healthy and solid building-up process in the long term, or they are just like a positive, more pleasant version of the "day to day" bad news in the stocks, and we can be tempted to perceive them as indicating real recovery only because they are considered good, ignoring that there may be just being used to mask fundamental deficiencies that have not been corrected in the past four years.

    Judging from what we were told in 2008, and what has been being said ever since then, the impression is that the whole world is sitting on a time bomb, and the difference between the different nations comes, first, from the particular situation that drove them to it but, most importantly, the general attitude in front the situation, attitude that, even if ultimately, pragmatically irrelevant in the handling of actual events, shows more or less capacity and energy to deal actively (US), again, no matter how wrongly or how efficiently, or to be scared of it and find a place to hide their heads (EU)... as it has been the case ever since the end of WWII.

  16. #16

    Re: Is it coming

    Quote Originally Posted by belamo View Post
    Ok, just to finish off this thread before it sinks [more or less ...
    I wanted to say something but I didn't know what happened to Mr Sachs and Madov and Goldman and all those jewish moneylenders

  17. #17
    Pococuranté belamo's Avatar
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    Re: Is it coming

    Quote Originally Posted by pat grimshaw View Post
    I wanted to say something but I didn't know what happened to Mr Sachs and Madov and Goldman and all those jewish moneylenders
    So you are of Russian ancestry.

  18. #18

    Re: Is it coming

    No, but I heard they were the most powerful people in the world and that they caused the GFC.

  19. #19
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    Re: Is it coming

    Quote Originally Posted by pat grimshaw View Post
    No, but I heard they were the most powerful people in the world and that they caused the GFC.
    dat good it mean da marisans no gonna be da next
    IT THEM

    ^ do not buy marisan products cause ^
    ---ooooh ------
    # you look marsian POLICEEEEE #

    Internet 2 a wonda

    thankyou

  20. #20
    Pococuranté belamo's Avatar
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    Re: Is it coming

    The Bad Koreans are comming too! Watch out, California!!


  21. #21
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    Re: Is it coming

    ans oscar go ta
    * best rubba plant *
    -calpclapclap-

    ans clip from movie
    Have Nice Day

    & let um eat economic words &
    - ooh titturs ya is a 1 -
    & be mummy ans pour? &
    -ooh ans a cooky fa our teddy bears_

    ! NO SPOILERS !

    dat okay 1st world alll wares nappys
    ! dat okay then !

    ans award go ta fa 2013

    SSSSSSSH"

    okay spakyou

  22. #22
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    Re: Is it coming

    Quote Originally Posted by belamo View Post
    The Bad Koreans are comming too! Watch out, California!!
    Their biggest underground nuclear bomb explosion suggest this may be soon, perhaps


  23. #23

    Re: Is it coming

    The only way to beat the market is to try not to beat the market. Just invest in high quality stocks with a good record of dividend increases and keep them. When people are dumping them in a panic just buy more, etc.

  24. #24

    Re: Is it coming

    ... and all this time I thought Belamo only put in money in Boys for Rent. Are Hooker Stocks down?
    http://www.justusboys.com/forum/signaturepics/sigpic216959_1.gif

  25. #25
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    Re: Is it coming

    IBEX right???

  26. #26

    Re: Is it coming

    Our state radio broadcaster today reported that Obama is still going around saying that The Fiscal Cliff is still coming.
    .

  27. #27
    Pococuranté belamo's Avatar
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    Re: Is it coming

    Oh, he corrected it today, it is no more a cyclical bull, it is just THE [early 2010s] bull market:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Closing...strial_Average

  28. #28
    Pococuranté belamo's Avatar
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    Re: Is it coming

    Why are not "authorities" and governments all out after these people like they go after pedo porn, Kim Dotcom or the idiots who make pranks about terrorism on the net?

  29. #29
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    Re: Is it coming

    Oh.......sorry.......I thought this was about cock........carry on.......

  30. #30
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    Re: Is it coming

    No "real" investor uses the Dow as a benchmark. It is all about the S&P 500. That said, I feel the markets are playing a game of chicken with the US Government on whether they would "bail out" companies again. Fuck, we need a true, free-market government that would let'em fail.

  31. #31
    GiancarloC
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    Re: Is it coming

    A "true free market" government would have let the economy collapse and we would have 25% unemployment. I thought that viewpoint disappeared in 1929?

  32. #32
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    Re: Is it coming

    Quote Originally Posted by maxpowr9 View Post
    No "real" investor uses the Dow as a benchmark. It is all about the S&P 500. That said, I feel the markets are playing a game of chicken with the US Government on whether they would "bail out" companies again. Fuck, we need a true, free-market government that would let'em fail.
    You mean this?

  33. #33
    Pococuranté belamo's Avatar
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    Re: Is it coming

    Three "corrections" is a chasm?

  34. #34
    The nice guy from Nice. dpnice's Avatar
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    Re: Is it coming

    You really are impressive when you go all intellectual on us. I hope people realise that all that was written in a foreign language for you, yet concise, readable and comprehensible.

    I know I couldn't write something similar in French; well not in English either. My intelligent days are over.
    http://justusboys.com/forum/image.php?type=sigpic&userid=72786&dateline=115443  2352

  35. #35

    Re: Is it coming

    Quote Originally Posted by dpnice View Post
    You really are impressive ....
    Yes, I'm a Belamo fan too.
    .

  36. #36
    Pococuranté belamo's Avatar
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    Re: Is it coming

    This reminds me of the comment sections of YouTube clips of Mozart or Bach's works... *Capt. Picard*

  37. #37

    Re: Is it coming

    Quote Originally Posted by belamo View Post
    This reminds me ...
    Do you have an opinion on the Canaria outrage?

    http://www.justusboys.com/forum/thre...22#post8865222
    .

  38. #38
    Pococuranté belamo's Avatar
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    Re: Is it coming

    Quote Originally Posted by pat grimshaw View Post
    Do you have an opinion on the Canaria outrage?

    http://www.justusboys.com/forum/thre...22#post8865222
    We can count ourselves happy that it's a part of people's lives and not a part of people's bodies or their lives what went up in smoke. That must have been either the typically impotent angry Spaniard or generally Mediterranean type, Northern or Southern...

  39. #39
    Pococuranté belamo's Avatar
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    Re: Is it coming

    Everybody has been talking about it. Of course, the day it made the big official headlines, it will make no sense anymore talking about it and trying to decide who were responsible for it...

    http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unt...-a-902662.html

    http://www.resourceinvestor.com/2013...-to-pop?ref=hp

  40. #40

  41. #41
    Pococuranté belamo's Avatar
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  42. #42

    Re: Is it coming

    Could be! Who knows?

    Could it be? Yes, it could.

    Something's coming, I don't know what it is,

    Something's coming, don't know when, but it's soon;

    .

  43. #43
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    Re: Is it coming


  44. #44

    Re: Is it coming

    Come, and trip it as ye go
    On the light fantastic toe,
    And in thy right hand lead with thee,
    The mountain-nymph, sweet Liberty;

    And if I give thee honour due,
    Mirth, admit me of thy crew
    To live with her, and live with thee,
    In unreproved pleasures free;

    To hear the lark begin his flight,
    And singing startle the dull night,
    From his watch-tower in the skies,
    Till the dappled dawn doth rise;

    Then to come in spite of sorrow,
    And at my window bid good-morrow,
    Through the sweet-briar, or the vine,
    Or the twisted eglantine;....
    .

  45. #45
    PerScientiam AdJustitiam bankside's Avatar
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    Re: Is it coming

    Quote Originally Posted by belamo View Post
    Ok, just to finish off this thread before it sinks [more or less ] definitely into oblivion.

    My observation pointed to the fact (apparent, if you want to consider it that way ) that a greater increase, relatively to a period of several previous years, in the Dow index during a period about or rather inferior to twelve months, seemed to be the sign of an "exuberance", luxuriance or however you want to call it of a speculative character, masking fundamental deficiencies in what is called "real economy".
    About the attention to day to day data that Tommy referred to above, we could say exactly the same thing to the indicators concerning employment, consumer spending, et al., and wonder if those positive news actually represent a healthy and solid building-up process in the long term, or they are just like a positive, more pleasant version of the "day to day" bad news in the stocks, and we can be tempted to perceive them as indicating real recovery only because they are considered good, ignoring that there may be just being used to mask fundamental deficiencies that have not been corrected in the past four years.

    Judging from what we were told in 2008, and what has been being said ever since then, the impression is that the whole world is sitting on a time bomb, and the difference between the different nations comes, first, from the particular situation that drove them to it but, most importantly, the general attitude in front the situation, attitude that, even if ultimately, pragmatically irrelevant in the handling of actual events, shows more or less capacity and energy to deal actively (US), again, no matter how wrongly or how efficiently, or to be scared of it and find a place to hide their heads (EU)... as it has been the case ever since the end of WWII.
    OHHHH. Finally you explain yourself.




    No; this current run-up of the stock market is based on solid economic fundamentals, and represents clear-headed and realistic investment decisions based on an insightful reading of those fundamentals.
    Americans need to keep their guns so they can protect themselves from gun violence just like Nancy Lanza did. And like Chris Kyle did. And like Gabby Giffords did. And like Tom Clements did. And like Michael Piemonte. And Joseph Wilcox.

  46. #46
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    Re: Is it coming

    Quote Originally Posted by bankside View Post
    OHHHH. Finally you explain yourself.




    No; this current run-up of the stock market is based on solid economic fundamentals, and represents clear-headed and realistic investment decisions based on an insightful reading of those fundamentals.
    Oh, but that was pretty obvious The point is where exactly is all of it leading all of us and our savings, and our future life

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    Re: Is it coming

    I didn't remember that the bank side was the last mock contribution to this... thread.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed...nts-admits-sto

    So where will it stop, 15,900s? 15,700s? 16,000s? 15800s? 16,100s?

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    Re: Is it coming

    I don't know but clearly I need to buy some TI stock.
    Americans need to keep their guns so they can protect themselves from gun violence just like Nancy Lanza did. And like Chris Kyle did. And like Gabby Giffords did. And like Tom Clements did. And like Michael Piemonte. And Joseph Wilcox.

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    Re: Is it coming

    Buy Twitter! And lose.....

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